Wednesday March 15 2017

School Forecast for:
Thursday March 16th
Last Updated: 9:20PM Wednesday March 15th

Remains a Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
40% 60%
0%

9:20PM Wednesday Update

Kingston received a total of 18 inches of snow.
This stands as Kingston's greatest snowfall since before December 2002, and quite possibly since the January 1996 Blizzard. The greatest snowfall was to our north and west where record amounts accumulated. On Tuesday, Binghamton shattered its record for "most snow in 24 hours" when 31.3 inches was recorded in 22 hours; the previous record was 23 inches set in 1961.

Here are some totals across Ulster County:
33.0 inches - West Shokan
24.0 inches -
Plattekill
21.0 inches - Cottekill
18.0 inches -
Saugerties

Kingston has already declared a delay for tomorrow, but there is the possibility for an upgrade. While some roads are delay worth, there are many that simply are not at this time. Many roads -including Broadway- still have snow caked on them, and others still have measurable snow. While I suspect that plows will try to treat the worst roads again in the morning, with temperatures in the teens overnight, I doubt that appreciable progress will be made in time. Additionally, sidewalks are VERY treacherous and there are a good number of them that are simply not shoveled. Students within two miles of the high school do not have bus service, and as it stands now, many would be walking in the road for at least part of their commute.

If classes are cancelled tomorrow it will be Kingston's first triple cancellation since February 24-26, 2010, however, it snowed on all three of those days. The last time that a single-day snowstorm resulted in a triple snow day was likely the January 1996 Blizzard.

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10:15PM Tuesday Update

Two Hour delay …. 30%
No School …. 80%
Early Dismissal … 0%

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4:30PM Tuesday Update

As of 3pm 18 inches of snow had fallen in Kingston.
This is our largest snowfall since before President's Day 2003.
Light snow is still falling, so additional light accumulations are possible, but the storm will be winding down over the next few hours. It'll continue to be breezy through tomorrow as the storm clears the region with temperatures ranging from the lower teens to around 30 for the remainder of the week. It will be dry with the next storm not bringin g a chance of rain or snow showers until Friday night.

At this time, a cancellation is favored for tomorrow.
This is based on the precedent set by two previous storms.
February 2, 2014 - which brought 9.2 inches of snow between 4pm and 10pm on the 2nd, and resulted in a delay the following day. With roughly the same timeframe for this storm, comparable results would be expected. However, snowfall this time around was double what it was during that storm, so greater lingering impacts should be expected. The second storm was last month's 9.2 inches which fell between 4am and 2pm on February 9th. This storm resulted in cancellations on both the 9th and 10th - again, similar timeframe, much greater amounts.

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4:45PM Monday Update
"Blizzard Warnings up for Tuesday"

The Kingston City School District
is closed for Tuesday March 14th.

The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a "Blizzard Warning". The warning is in effect for 18 to 24 inches of snow, snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour, and gusty winds which will combine to create blizzard conditions. The warning is in effect all day Tuesday. Do not travel. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you —including a charged cell phone with charger, a flashlight, a blanket, and a full tank of gas. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle.

The full "Blizzard Warning" statement can be read HERE.
Now that schools are closing, updates will likely be only posted on the Facebook page. Feel free to engage with Kingstonsnows there.

Be safe!


12PM Monday Update

Tuesday forecast #3.

Overnight all guidance models came into agreement in having a significant snowstorm impact us tomorrow. The trend during this time has simply been increasing snowfall amounts with every update with, and over 12 inches of snow has consistently been depicted across the Mid-Hudson Valley with the potential for some areas to see over 24 inches. The Kingston area forecast has been bumped up to a point-forecast of 19" at this time.

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Please note that THIS IS NOT JUST ANOTHER SNOWSTORM.
Not since Presidents Day 2003 has the Kingston area seen a storm of the projected magnitude, and if the high end forecasts verify, this could be our strongest storm in much longer. Snow should begin around 2AM Tuesday and continue into Tuesday night. The most intense portion of the storm will be between roughly 7AM and 1PM when intense banding features may create snowfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour. This will result in near blizzard conditions, and make travel largely IMPOSSIBLE. Do NOT attempt to travel if it is not absolutely necessary. For context, similar storms in recent years namely the Valentine's Day 2014 storm have resulted in the New York State Thurway being close and a State of Emergency being issued. It would not be at all a surprise to see the same tomorrow. An update on the amounts will be posted this evening, but the practical impact remains the same.


6PM Sunday Update

Tuesday forecast #2.

This morning it was mentioned that of the two primary guidance models that we traditionally turn to at this point in the forecast, one continued to depict a significant snow event while the other was more moderate. This continues to be the case this evening, however, more confidence is now being placed in the stronger scenario. This is because we are now just over 24 hours away from the beginning of the storm and the model depicting the stronger scenario tends to perform better with short-range forecasting. Additionally it has some support from secondary models. In this scenario, the storm's track is nearly identical to our Valentines Day 2014 storm and St. Patrick's Day 2007 storm. Both these events dumped 16 inches of snow on Kingston, and we could very well be looking at a repeat. The "snow-gauge" has been adjusted to reflect this, but maintains a low-end extreme range that still captures the lower scenario. The new forecast is now in line with the National Weather Service's "Winter Storm Warning".

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The forecast could still shift some in either direction, however, the practical impact remains that a significant winter storm will greatly impact the region on Tuesday; impacts will likely linger into Wednesday. Updates will be posted tomorrow morning and afternoon.

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11:30AM Sunday Update

First Tuesday forecast.
This morning there is still uncertainty in the eventual evolution of Tuesday's storm. Of the two primary guidance models that we traditionally turn to at this point in the forecast, one continues to depict a significant snow event. The other takes the storm a little further out to sea, resulting in a more moderate event. However, secondary models continue to favor a stronger impact storm, and thus the attached Kingstonsnows forecast for the Kingston area leans more toward that end of the spectrum, but is conservative relative to the strongest scenarios. In either case, the practical impact remains that snow will fall for the vast majority of the day on Tuesday resulting in significant travel impacts. Updates will be posted today and tomorrow as the forecast evolves.

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Click image for larger version.zh7vvmZ.png?1
Caption: Current forecast snow ranges for the Kingston area.
Click image for larger version.

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6AM Saturday Update

A total of about 2.8 inches of snow fell in Kingston between 4:30am and 11:30am. This brings the season total to 41.9 inches. Our attention now turns to a potentially significant snowstorm for Tuesday.

For more than 48hours there has been a growing probability of a significant winter storm impacting our region on Tuesday. The "players" that will converge to create this storm are now in place across North America. These include (1.) Cold air streaming in from Canada in the wake of yesterday's storm, (2.) A weather system that will impact the Pacific Northwest before tracking through the Great Plains, and (3.) Copious moisture over the Gulf of Mexico. It is now almost certain that these will result in a significant nor'easter (4.) off the Southeast coast by Monday. There is still some uncertainty in the specific track of the storm by the time it reaches the Northeast on Tuesday. The exact track will determine exactly where the heaviest snow falls. However, for over 48 hours the trend has been for the Mid-Hudson Valley to receive over 6 inches on Tuesday — with up to 12 inches possible. Details will continue to become more refined this weekend.

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Caption: Last night's satellite imagery depicts the "players" that will result in next week's storm. Click image for larger version.The remainder of the week looks to be calm with temperatures generally running in the 30's, which is below normal.
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Click image for larger version.

Extended-Outlooks
Extended outlooks offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.

School Impact Probability
March 13th - March 17th
Last Updated: Saturday March 11th

Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday (13th) Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Tuesday (14th)
Very Low High Very Low
Wednesday (15th)
Very Low Very Low Very Low
Thursday (16th)
Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Friday (17th)
Very Low Very Low Very Low

Weather Probabilities
Last Updated: Tuesday March 7th
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[ https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Bz88OAymn0k1cG9TNmo0V3N6ams Click outlook image for larger and clearer version]

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