Thursday March 09 2017

Light snow Friday

School Forecast for:
Friday March 10th
Last Updated: 5:30PM Thursday March 9th

Two Hour Delay No School Early Dismissal
40% 60%
0%

5:00PM Thursday Update

Snow will overspread the county from south to north during the early morning hours.

Snow Timing
3AM to 4AM. Snow begins across southern Ulster County.
(including Ellenville, New Paltz, Marlboro)
4AM to 5AM. Snow begins across northern Ulster County.
(including Kingston, Onteora, Saugerties)
Around 9AM. Snow begins to end around Onteora.
Around 10AM. Snow begins to end around Kingston.
Around 11AM. Snow begins to end around Wallkill.

Total snowfall will likely be around an inch toward
Onteora and Saugerties… two inches in the Kingston area… and up to 3 or 4 inches toward Marlboro. Based on the timing and amount, have adjusted the probabilities to favor a cancellation in Kingston, however, this is still a somewhat boarder-line event. Cancellations are more likely across southern Ulster County.

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I will try to have a quick final update by 10PM tonight,
but I'll be at work, so I may be unable to. In either case, there will be updates this weekend regarding a potential snowstorm for Tuesday.
~Ethan

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8:30AM Thursday Update

No significant overnight changes with tomorrow's storm.

A zone of precipitation over the northern Plains will slide eastward and produce a band of snow from Pennsylvania through Massachusetts. In New York, it appears that the greatest snowfall generally 3 to 5 inches should occur to our south, across Orange and Rockland counties. Accumulations across Ulster and Dutchess counties will likely range from 1 to 3 inches with higher totals to the south (Wallkill) and lower totals to the north (Saugerties). Today's focus will be monitoring for any north or south shifts in the snow band, which could influence snow totals. The timing of everything looks to be between 12am and 12pm Friday.

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Click image for larger version.

7:45PM Wednesday Update

Over the past 24 hours there has been an increasing probability although not 100% for a general 1 to 3 inches of snow across Ulster County on Friday morning as a storm system passes to our south. The greatest threat for accumulating snow, and the greatest confidence in storm impact, is across southern areas (Wallkill and Marlboro). Details will be refined throughout the day tomorrow.

Regardless of exact snow totals, it will be notably colder following the storm with temperatures falling into the teens Friday and Saturday nights with wind chills potentially in the single digits.

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Caption: Greatest storm impacts are likely to be across southern portions of the county. Click image for larger version.IUwK1od.jpg?1
Caption: Storm details for the Kingston area where 1 to 2 inches are currently anticipated Friday morning. Click image for larger version.

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7:00AM Tuesday Update

This past Friday saw very brief snow squalls that dropped roughly 0.1 inch of snow in Kingston. This brings our total snowfall for the season up to 39.1 inches. While this is close to the average that we would expect for this time of year, the fact that we haven't seen any other snowfall in the past three weeks is unusual.

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Caption: This winter's total snowfall amount (pink line) has fallen close to the average amount (solid yellow line). Click image for larger version.This week will feature a familiar trend - mild temperatures with rain, followed by an abrupt return to more seasonable weather. Once again, really not anticipating any snow over the next week with the possible exception of maybe some flurries on Friday. It will be noticeably colder by the weekend.
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Click the forecast image for larger and clearer version.

Extended-Outlooks
Extended outlooks offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.

School Impact Probability
March 13th - March 17th
Last Updated: Tuesday March 7th

Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday (13th) Very Low
Very Low
Very Low
Tuesday (14th)
Medium Low Very Low
Wednesday (15th)
Very Low Very Low Very Low
Thursday (16th)
Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Friday (17th)
Very Low Very Low Very Low

Weather Probabilities
Last Updated: Tuesday March 7th
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Click outlook image for larger and clearer version

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