Thursday February 9 2017

Active Week Ahead

School Forecast for:
Friday February 10th
Last Updated: 9:00PM Thursday February 9th

Two Hour Delay No School Early Dismissal
60% 0%
0%

9:25PM Thursday

Roads are bad.
Just went out to check how the clearing process was going. Results: not so well. Today's snow was very powdery. When compressed, powdery snow tends to "cake" to surfaces. Nearly all roads including side roads and main ones like Broadway currently have at least some caking on them. Many of these roads have substantial caking. Additionally, there has been spotty melting in some areas from all the salting. Temperatures are currently in the mid teens and are anticipated to continue falling into the lower teens. This presents a definite black ice threat overnight. For these reasons, a delay is more than likely tomorrow.

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6PM Thursday

Yesterday,
Poughkeepsie recorded a maximum temperature of 56 degrees, tying its record high for the date; this evening Poughkeepsie literally has a foot of snow on the ground ⛄.

Here in Kingston,
Kingstonsnows recorded a storm total of 9.8 inches between 4am and 2pm. This ranks today's storm as our largest snow fall in exactly two years and our 11th greatest snowfall since November 2004 when Kingstonsnows archives begin. There are 225 measurable snow events in the archive.

Looking ahead,
the active weather trend will continue.
Looking for a quick shot of light snow Friday night into early Saturday morning. An inch or two of snow is likely. A second storm is likely to impact the region on Sunday. Currently, a mix or rain and snow with some light accumulation is possible. This storm will need to be monitored though, because shifts in the track could easily make it an all rain event or a moderate snow event.

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the forecast image for larger and clearer version.

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10PM Wednesday

Nothing new to report.
All systems go for tomorrow's storm. This will very likely be our largest snow storm in exactly two years. February 2015 recorded a 10.5 inch storm on the 2nd, and then a 7.2 inch storm on the 10th. Even if you're not a fan of winter, try to enjoy the snow tomorrow… cause it's coming regardless.

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10PM Radar depicts a strengthening storm.
The next chance of snow will be on Saturday.


4PM Wednesday

Significant winter storm remains on track for tomorrow.
Snow should begin during the wee morning hours, likely around 4AM and continue into the early afternoon. Heavy snow is likely in the morning with rate approaching an inch or two an hour at times. All-in-all, likely looking at 5 to 10 inches across most of Ulster County with a best estimate of around 7 inches for Kingston. Snow totals and intensity will increase the further south and east you head across the region. Across Ulster County, the highest snow amounts will be from Wallkill to Highland.

Temperatures should generally run in the lower 20s with a fairly light north wind. Temperatures will fall into the low teens Thursday night. Final comments on the storm will be posted at 10PM.

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Click the forecast image for larger and clearer version.

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Caption: the 2PM to 4PM radar depicts our impending storm gearing up over the Ohio Valley region.

4PM Tuesday

Or attention now turns to the next potential system.
This next system will pass by our region on Thursday, and has the potential to bring a moderate to heavy snowfall. The storm is currently over the Western US. It's track takes it down around Texas tomorrow morning, before it develops into a nor'easter as it moves up the East Coast. It should begin impacting the Northeast early Thursday morning and continue into the afternoon.

Today's storm tracked to our north, so we were in its "warm sector", hence the rain. This next storm will be passing to our south, however, so we will be entirely in its "cold sector". This means we are looking at all snow on Thursday. The question remains "how much"? Amounts will depend on the exact track which should become clearer Wednesday morning. However, over the past 24 hours, there has been a growing probability of a moderate to heavy snowfall. Currently, Kingstonsnows is anticipating 4 to 8 inches across most of Ulster County, however, this could change (up or down) based on shifts in the track. The snowfall gradient should be such that the lightest accumulations are over northwest Ulster County - toward Phoenicia, the Onteora School District, and Margaretville - the highest Ulster County accumulations are likely to be over the southeastern towns - toward Highland, Wallkill, and Marlboro.

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Caption: The tracks of this week's two storm's are overlain on this morning's satellite imagery. Today's storm (#1) will depart to our northeast after bringing rain. Storm #2 arrived on the West Coast this morning, and has the potential to bring accumulating snowfall on Thursday. Click the chart for larger and clearer version.7P9EQfT.jpg?1
Caption: A moderate to high impact snow event is anticipated across all of Ulster County on Thursday. Click the chart for larger and clearer version.ZcD3nrj.png?1
Caption: Total snowfall this season has been average in Kingston, however, this is only because December saw significantly above average snowfall, while January was below average amounts. Given current outlooks, without a double-digit storm (which can never be ruled out) this season will likely see 30 to 40 inches of snow, which is below normal. Click the chart for larger and clearer version.

Extended-Outlooks
Extended outlooks offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.

School Impact Probability
February 6th - February 10th
Last Updated: Monday February 6th

Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday (6th) Very Low Very Low
Very Low
Tuesday (7th)
Low
Medium
Very Low
Wednesday (8th)
Very Low Very Low Very Low
Thursday (9th)
Low
Medium
Very Low
Friday (10th)
Very Low Very Low Very Low

Weather Probabilities
Last Updated: Monday February 6th
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Click outlook image for larger and clearer version

Next Update:
By Wednesday Morning

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