Monday February 6 2017

Slick conditions tomorrow

School Forecast for:
Tuesday February 7th
Last Updated: 10:00PM Monday February 6th

Two Hour Delay No School Early Dismissal
20% 40%
0%

10PM Update

No real changes this evening.
Still expecting precipitation to develop around 6am - 7am.
Most likely precipitation type is light sleet/freezing rain.
Based on all available data this evening, I'm really not anticipating much snow or sleet accumulation tomorrow morning… maybe a coating or so. The main hazard appears to be black ice associated with potential freezing rain/drizzle. Once precipitation begins to develop, slick conditions are likely to follow. Surface temperatures are likely to remain below freezing through about 10AM. Steadier plain rain is likely beginning around noon.

Have opted to remain comfortably conservative on the probabilities due to potential late-timing issues coupled with uncertainties in the exact extent of icing. However, tomorrow morning has the potential to be very slick.

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Caption: Total snowfall this season has been average in Kingston, however, this is only because December saw significantly above average snowfall, while January was below average amounts. Given current outlooks, without a double-digit storm (which can never be ruled out) this season will likely see 30 to 40 inches of snow, which is below normal. Click the chart for larger and clearer version.


7PM Monday

A developing storm system will impact our region tomorrow.
Overnight temperatures will be capable of support frozen precipitation through mid to late morning. Temperatures should rise enough for a plain cold rain by late morning or early afternoon.

The main factor in determining tomorrow's impacts is what time precipitation develops. Currently, it appears that the most likely timing for precipitation to begin falling is by 7am. Precipitation is likely to be either sleet or freezing rain when it begins. Slick conditions are very likely to develop once precipitation begins.

As for potential accumulations…
There is the possibility for up to half an inch of sleet accumulations.
The main threat, however, will be potential icing. A light coating of ice is possible. Overall, less than half an inch of rain is anticipated during the day.

An update will be posted at 10PM


5PM Sunday

Tuesday looks to be the active day this week as a storm system approaches from the southwest. At present this system looks to bring mainly rain to our region during the day. Depending on how early the storm arrives, we will have to watch for cold air at the ground level possibly resulting in a period of sleet or freezing rain in the morning. There is the potential for a second coastal storm to impact the region on Thursday. This storm is much more uncertain, however, and could pass to our south with just clouds.

Temperatures will be above average this week with highs around 40 Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday will likely make it into at least the mid-40s, possibly close to 50, before Thursday and Friday settle back into the upper 30s.

Extended-Outlooks
Extended outlooks offer a general sense of upcoming conditions, but are not specific forecasts.

School Impact Probability
February 6th - February 10th
Last Updated: Monday February 6th

Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday (6th) Very Low Very Low
Very Low
Tuesday (7th)
Low
Medium
Very Low
Wednesday (8th)
Very Low Very Low Very Low
Thursday (9th)
Low
Medium
Very Low
Friday (10th)
Very Low Very Low Very Low

Weather Probabilities
Last Updated: Monday February 6th
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Click outlook image for larger and clearer version

Next Update:
By Wednesday Night

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