Wednesday January 3

Snow Likely Tomorrow

School Forecast for:
Thursday January 4th
Last Updated: 10PM Wednesday January 3, 2018
Delay No School Early Dismissal
0% 80%

The Forecast

10PM Wednesday

Significant coastal storm is currently spreading snow into Maryland and Virginia. Snow will continue to work its way up the coast, and move into New York tomorrow morning. At this time, Kingstonsnows is looking for snow to begin between 5am and 7am then continue through about 3pm. Expecting total accumulations around 2 to 3 inches. While the National Weather Service is predicting about the same amount of snow, it should be noted that their latest products call for the snow to begin falling as early as 1am. We'll see what happens, but regardless of start time, travel impacts are likely tomorrow. The current forecast favors a cancellation, but if the later start times do verify, then it would not be a surprise to see districts slip in an early dismissal.


10AM Wednesday

The storm that will impact us tomorrow has begun forming off the Florida coast, and multiple locations in north Florida have been reporting accumulating snowfall this morning. Over the next 36 hours, the storm will spread snow up the entire Atlantic coast all the way to Canada. Overnight trends have favored the storm developing slightly stronger and closer to the coast than previously forecasted, suggesting a greater impact here in the Mid-Hudson Valley. The forecast now calls for snow totals around three inches in Kingston. Despite being within 24 hours of the start time, the forecast remains sensitive to relatively small shifts in the storm track, and the "extreme range" has been updated to better reflect this. Additionally, an earlier arrival time for the snow is now expected with snow possibly developing before daybreak. Overall, the current forecast calls for a respectable storm with impacts throughout the day tomorrow. Once the storm clears out on Friday, a return to bitterly cold temperatures will be the main story heading into the weekend. Temperatures are not likely to even reach the teens on Friday and Saturday.

Click either forecast image for larger and clearer versions.


10PM Tuesday

Overall, the forecast remains about the same as this morning. A nor'easter will move up the Atlantic Coast Wednesday into Thursday. This will produce a plowable snow along the immediate coastline. Here in the MidHudson Valley, we will be on the outer edge of the storm. At this time it remains likely that we will see at least some snow on Thursday, but these kinds of forecasts are sensitive to relatively small shifts in the storm track, and we could still see anything from just a light coating of snow to a few inches. The Kingstonsnows forecast continues to anticipate about an inch of snow, with the potential for up to about three inches. Assuming that it does snow in Kingston, any school impacts will depend on the start time. The next update is planned for tomorrow at 10AM.

Click forecast image for larger and clearer version.


7AM Tuesday

Since yesterday's update, there has been an increasing probability that the Hudson Valley will see accumulating snow on Thursday. This potential snow will be related to a developing nor'easter that seems poised to bring a swath of snow from northern Florida all the way to Maine. At this time, Ulster County looks to be on the edge of the storm, and any snow accumulations should be limited to a few inches… similar to the other light events that we have seen this winter. This being said, the likely timing of Thursday between 9AM and 4PM would likely lead to school impacts. Forecast updates are currently planned for 10pm tonight and 10am tomorrow.

Click forecast image for larger and clearer version.

Winter update
Updated: January 1, 2018

Here in the Hudson Valley, our snow season typically runs from late November to mid March, and so early January roughly marks the end of the first third of the season. So far this year, we've seen a pretty average winter. Just over 10 inches of snow fell last month and the season total stands at 10.6 inches. This is 8 inches less than we had by the start of 2017, but is almost exactly the 13-year average. Last month, Kingstonsnows forecasted that we would see about 48 inches of snow this winter which is slightly above average. This forecast remains valid.

Image caption: So far this winter's snowfall has been near average.
Click image for larger and clearer version.TAll8Sn.png
Image caption: Kingston remains on track to see about 48 inches of snow.
Click image for larger and clearer version.

What about this cold?!

The average temperature in Poughkeepsie last month was 27.8 degrees. This is 3.3 degrees below normal, and is colder than 75% of Decembers on record. It was the coldest December since 2006. The real story has been the frigid temperatures of the past week. Since Christmas Day the average temperature has only been 13.5 degrees. This is by far the coldest it has been between Christmas and New Years since records began in 1949, but in context of the entire winter, it does not even rank in the top 100 coldest 7-day stretches on record. The cold will continue for about another week with the extended forecast suggesting a moderation toward normal or above normal temperatures by the end of next week, and continuing into the second half of January.

The reason for the cold is that the bubble of arctic air that is traditionally located over the north pole has migrated southward. It is not uncommon for this to happen. Sometimes this bubble of cold air shifts over Asia, other times it shifts over North America. While these cold air shifts may make local weather unbearable, the bigger picture is that the global as a whole continues to run a fever with most areas warmer than normal. Global temperatures have been steadily increasing since the early 1900s, and 2017 will rank as either the 2nd or 3rd warmest year in modern human history when all the data is compiled. The warmest year on record was 2016.

Image caption: The blue colors over North America (top left) represent today's below average temperatures, the reds across the rest of the globe represent above normal temperatures. Click image for larger and clearer version.

Extended outlooks offer a general sense of upcoming conditions.
Updated: January 1, 2018

School Impact Probability

Day (Date) Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday (8) Low Medium Very Low
Tuesday (9) Very Low
Very Low Very Low
Wednesday (10) Very Low Very Low Very Low
Thursday (11) Very Low Very Low Very Low
Friday (12) Very Low
Very Low
Very Low

Temperature and Precipitation

Click image for larger and clearer version.

The normal high temperature for January 8th through January 21st is 34 degrees. The normal low temperature is 15 degrees.

All 2017 Photos of The Month have been updated.
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