Tuesday December 6 2016

Another storm tonight

School Forecast for:
Wednesday December 7th
Last Updated: 7:00PM Tuesday December 6, 2016

Two Hour Delay No School Early Dismissal
40% 0%

7:00pm Tuesday Update

Precipitation will be moving into the area shortly.
Temperatures in Kingston and surrounding area are currently in the upper 30s, so precipitation will likely start as rain. Temperatures should gradually fall tonight, allowing snow to develop by 11pm. Snow will likely continue through about 5am before changing back to rain by 6am. Rain showers should taper off by 8am or 9am. Total accumulations with this storm are now anticipated to be around an inch of wet snow.

As far as school impacts go,
the probabilities of a delay are not as high as on Monday. This is due to #1 less anticipated total snowfall and more importantly #2 temperatures will be notably warmer. On Sunday night temperatures were well below freezing for nearly 12 hours before the snow began and then remained around 30 degrees while the snow fell. Tonight, temperatures are running in the upper 30s and are only projected to fall into the lower 30s. While this will likely allow for a period of snow, it will make road accumulations difficult, especially if they are already wet from any rain this evening. The main factor currently supporting a delay at this point is the timing. The 40% of a delay means that a delay is less than likely, but still possible. Final adjustments will be posted at 10PM.

I apologize for the lack of
updates earlier today.

Sunday December 4th


• Light accumulating snow Monday morning
• Some clearing on Tuesday
• Rain/Snow Tuesday night into Wednesday

A storm system currently to our south and west will approach the region today. This storm will spread light snow over the area beginning late tonight. Light snow will likely continue through the morning on Monday before tapering off Monday afternoon. Currently, only light accumulations around an inch are anticipated. However, the timing of the snow, likely arriving before 5am, will likely affect the morning commute. Clouds linger Monday afternoon with some clearing early Tuesday. A second storm system affects the area Tuesday night. A mix of rain and snow is possible with this second storm. Temperatures will fall to right around the freezing mark Wednesday morning, so accumulating snow may be possible. Clouds linger through Thursday. High temperatures will be in the 40s this week.

Click forecast image or larger version sBaI2OB.jpg?3
Click forecast images for larger versions

November Recap,
and Drought Update
December 4, 2016

November 2016 has come and gone!
Here in Ulster County, the month was fairly typical in terms of temperature, rain, and snowfall.

The average temperature for the month was 52.1 degrees which was slightly above the normal average of 49.0. The highest temperature was 68 which was set on November 2nd and 3rd. The lowest temperature was 25, which was set on the 21st and 23rd.

The only snow last month was associated with the impressive November 20 - 22nd Lake Effect Snowfall event. Mohonk Lake received a total of 5.3 inches of snow on those dates, which is nearly double the normal snowfall for the month of November. The maximum Ulster County snow report during this event was 8.0 inches in Pine Hill; Kingston barely saw a trace of snow. Redfield, NY, downwind of Lake Ontario, recorded 54 inches (!!) - the most in the state.

Caption: Snow totals varied during the November 19-22 Lake Effect Snow event.
Click snow map for larger version

In terms of rainfall,
November was both a positive and a negative month. For the first time since July, Both Poughkeepsie and Mohonk Lake reported above normal rainfall for the month. Both locations received over three inches of rain. This is good news for the region which has been in a growing drought since September. Since early October, Kingston's Cooper Lake reservoir has been falling at a rate of 5% every two weeks. November began with a "Drought Alert" and Lake water levels at 70%. On November 10th a "Drought Warning" was declared as water levels fell to 65%. The 1.71 inches of rain that fell on November 15th helped to stabilize the falling water levels some, but by early last week, water levels had fallen to 61%. An additional 1.6 inches fell in the last two days of the month, which has since pushed water levels to 70% [>>Link<<]. Kingston recorded a total of 2.6 inches of rain during last week's storm, but some of that fell on December 1st (1.2 inches measured the morning of Nov. 30th and 1.4 inches measured the morning of Dec. 1st). The disconcerting part of November's rainfall is that it was largely due to rainfall on just two days. It would be much more reassuring for drought recovery to see smaller amounts of rain at more frequent intervals, because as we head into winter when there is typically less moisture, it should become more difficult to experience single day soaking rainfalls that are capable of recharging the reservoir — the kind that got us through November.

Caption: November's rainfall was above average for the first time since July.
Click image for larger version

Extended-Outlook School Impact Probability
December 5th - December 9th
Last Updated: Sunday December 4th

Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday (5th) Moderate Low Very Low
Tuesday (6th)
Very Low Very Low Very Low
Wednesday (7th)
Low Very Low Very Low
Thursday (8th)
Very Low Very Low Very Low
Friday (9th)
Very Low Very Low Very Low

Next Update:
This evening

Kingstonsnows ♦ Kingston, NY
Since January 2009
Archive of Updates

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