Sunday October 9, 2016

Cool, calm week ahead
School Forecast through:
Friday October 14th
Last Updated: 8:00PM Sunday October 9, 2016

Two Hour Delay No School Early Dismissal
0% 0% 0%

High pressure will dominate our weather over the coming week. This will help to produce mainly clear skies along with cooler temperatures. Temperatures will generally be about 10 degrees cooler than last week with high temperatures getting into the 60s. The nights will be quite chilly with low temperatures ranging from the lower 30s to the lower 40s. Temperatures could fall to the freezing mark for the first time this season — see the "Autumn Benchmarks" discussion below for full details on the normal first freeze. A passing weather system will likely produce clouds over the area on Thursday.

Click forecast image for larger version

Monday October 3rd

Now that October is underway we will be approaching some of our autumn benchmarks that relate to winter. There are two: the first night to fall below freezing and the date of the first snow. Over the past decade the dates of these benchmarks have varied from year to year.

First night below freezing:
Since 2000, the first night to fall below freezing in the Hudson Valley has always been in October. The earliest occurrence was October 3rd (2003) and the latest was October 29th (2007). The average date over the past 15 years has been October 15th. The current forecast has us getting close to the freezing mark Monday night, and then again on Friday night, and so it would not be a surprise if this benchmark were met by the end of the week.

Click image for larger version

The first measurable snow:
Unlike the first freezing temperature of the season, the date of the first measurable snow of the season varies greatly. Since 2004, the first snow fall has arrived as late as December 29th (2015) and as early as October 29th (2011). That's a difference of nearly nine weeks! While 2011 has been the only year to record measurable snowfall (as opposed to flurries), it is noted as a benchmark now, because it can happen. The average date of the first measurable snowfall is November 26th.

The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above normal temperatures for our area with equal chances for a wetter or drier than normal season this autumn.

Extended-Outlook School Impact Probability
October 17th - October 21st
Last Updated: Sunday October 9th

Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday Low Low Low
Low Low Low
Low Low Low
Low Low Low
Low Low Low

Next Update:
Sunday October 16th

Kingstonsnows will be updating every Sunday through the end of October, unless conditions warrant more frequent updates. As we head into November and the snow season, regular updates will become more frequent and detailed.

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Since January 2009
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