Wednesday January 20 2016

Eyes on the weekend: Update #3

School Forecast:
Through Friday
Last Updated: 8:00PM Wednesday January 20th

Two Hour Delay No School Early Dismissal
0% 0% 0%

Forecast Overview
Last Updated: 8:00PM Wednesday January 20th

8:00PM Wednesday Update

It is becoming increasingly unlikely that this weekend's east coast storm will impact our area. Model trends have continued to shift southward, and it is very possible that the snow misses us altogether. The closest approach of any snow would likely be Saturday evening.

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6:00PM Tuesday Update

The remainder of this week still looks quiet and we are still watching a potential storm system that may impact the region this weekend. The track of the storm is the most important aspect: the further north the storm tracks, the more it will impact our region; if it moves further south, it will have less of an impact. The trend over the past 24 hours has been for a track further south, resulting in less local impact. Yesterday, the track suggested anywhere from 3 to 7 inches of snowfall. Today's information suggests the potential for 1 to 5 inches. We will have to watch the track trends over the next few days as they could still shift further north or south.


6:00PM Monday Update

The next several days look to be calm. Gusty winds tonight will lighten into Tuesday. There may be intervals of clouds, but dry conditions look to prevail through Friday. Temperatures will be in the 20s, which is fairly typical for January.

The main focus is on a coastal storm that has the potential to impact the region this weekend. There is currently enough cold air in place that if the storm does impact us it will be in the form of snow, and not rain. Forecast models have been consistent in depicting the storm developing over the southern Great Plains on Thursday, moving across the southeastern states on Friday, and then up the Atlantic Seaboard into the weekend. The exact track of the storm off the Atlantic coast will determine how much, if any snowfall our regions receives. The trend over the past 24 hours has been for a 3 to 6 inch snow event. However, a slightly closer or further track will result in more or less snow. The trends between now and Thursday should help shed light on this aspect of the forecast.

7-Day Quick-Forecast
Last Updated: 6:00PM Monday January 18th

Condition Confidence
Tuesday Breezy / Partial clouds High
Wednesday Clear High
Thursday Mostly clear High
Friday
Increasing clouds High
Saturday Windy / Snow: 3" to 7" Medium
Sunday Morning flurries Medium
Monday Mostly clear Low

7-Day Text Forecast
Last Updated: 6:00PM Monday January 18th

Tuesday through Friday

No significant weather anticipated.
Generally clear conditions with light winds.
High temperatures generally in the 20s.

Saturday and Sunday

Moderate snowfall possible all-day Saturday.
Windy conditions likely. Diminishing clouds and dry conditions to end the weekend.

Long-range school impact (probability)
Last Updated: 6:00PM Monday January 18th
Day (Date) Delay Cancellation E.D. Confidence
Monday (25th) Low Low Low Medium
Tuesday (19th) Low Low Low
High
Wednesday (20th) Low Low Low High
Thursday (21st) Low Low Low High
Friday (22nd) Low Low Low High
The long range impact is a general outlook, and is not a specific forecast.

Kingstonsnows ♦ Kingston, NY
Since January 2009
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