Forecast Discussion November 16, 2015

468
FXUS61 KALY 162216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
516 PM EST MON NOV 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS…
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL QUEBEC
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. IT WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY…AS UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/…
AS OF 337 PM EST…A SFC ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM
NEAR JAMES BAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH
OF THE REGION ACROSS PA AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. A SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO DRIFT S/SE OF THE CAPITAL REGION…AND
BERKSHIRES…AS SFC DEWPTS CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY…CAPITAL DISTRICT…AND BERKSHIRES.

THE COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
DECREASING N/NW WINDS /INITIALLY AT 10-15 MPH/ TO LIGHT TO CALM
VALUES AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES WILL YIELD NEAR
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING IN FROM S-CNTRL QUEBEC. SHALLOW COLD AIR DRAINS INTO THE
REGION…AS 925 HPA TEMPS FALL TO -2C TO 0C FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVER THE FCST AREA.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN MID AND U20S…WITH SOME UPPER TEENS
AND L20S OVER THE SRN DACKS…LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS
REGION…AND SRN VT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NW CT/MID HUDSON
VALLEY MAY HOVER AROUND 30F. OUR TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO A BLEND TO THE
GUIDANCE TRENDING SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM MOS VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/…
TOMORROW…ANOTHER FAIR AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE /AROUND 1037 HPA/ RIDGING IN
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH THE AIR MASS…WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-NOV. MIXING DEPTHS WILL BE
SHALLOW…BUT AGAIN THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID AND U40S ACROSS MOST THE REGION…EXCEPT
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/MTNS WHERE SOME U30S TO L40S ARE
POSSIBLE. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM.

TUE NIGHT…ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES EARLY ON…AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVE OVER NY/NEW
ENGLAND…AND THE EAST COAST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S
WITH A FEW TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK. A LIGHT S/SE BREEZE
MAY START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAY BREAK WITH SOME CIRRUS
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON…ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTH AND EAST WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVING EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVER THE CATSKILLS…WHERE SOME
SPRINKLES OR SPOTTY DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE PM. A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY
WILL BE DRY…AND IT WILL BE A BIT WARMER/MILDER IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. H850 TEMPS
INCREASE TO +4C TO +7C WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ TO /30-35 KTS/.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM U40S TO L50S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS…AND MID
TO U40S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT…THE GFS/NAM DIVERGES A BIT HERE IN TERMS OF THE ONSET
OF THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS/NAM HAS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION BTWN 06Z-12Z…WHILE THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WEST OF THE FCST AREA OVER WRN NY…WITH JUST
SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OVER DRIZZLE OVER THE REGION. WE HAVE LOW
CHC POPS OVER MOST OF THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOW LIKELY
VALUES OVER THE E/SE CATSKILLS. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE TRENDED LOWER
IF THE PCPN LINGERS WEST OF THE REGION AND IS CONFINED CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL AXIS. THE SOUTHERLY LLJ DOES STRENGTHEN FURTHER TO
40-55 KTS. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND MILD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO M40S WITH A FEW U30S OVER THE SRN GREENS…LAKE GEORGE
REGION…AND SRN DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…
WIDESPREAD…SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED TO START OUT THE PERIOD AS
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST…ACTUALLY TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SYSTEM'S ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
MILD TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS/JET ARE EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS IT
DEEPENS AS SHORT WAVES DIVE IN. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE HOW THIS EVOLVES ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE ISSUES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AS WE END THE WEEK AND HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND…HOWEVER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD RETURN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT
THE BASE THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
ECMWF CUTS OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVES IN…WHILE THE GFS REMAINS OPEN
AND PROGRESSIVE. EITHER WAY IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT…A COLDER MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS
WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION FRIDAY HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. THE MORE SEASONABLE AIR SHOULD ARRIVE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

WITH SUCH A SPREAD IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK…EXPECT THE LONG RANGE FORECAST TO GO
THROUGH CHANGES AS WE GET AND ANALYZE THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…
VFR AND NO CIGS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. JUST SCT HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WILL PROMOTE A TENDENCY TOWARD DEVELOPING THAT LIGHT
HAZY UNIFORM FOGGINESS AS TEMPERATURES TUMBLE TOWARD DEW
POINTS…BUT DRY GROUND AND EVEN DRIER ATMOSPHERE MEANS THIS WILL
LIKELY HOLD SHORT. HAVE INCLUDED 6SM AT KGFL AND KPSF…WHICH
SHOULD BE THE ONLY AIRPORTS WHERE THIS NO-IMPACT FOG COULD
DEVELOP. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN…STAYING THAT
WAY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CRESTING
OVER NEW ENGLAND. THEREAFTER…WINDS START TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY.

OUTLOOK…
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA…FG.
THU: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
THU NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL QUEBEC
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. IT WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY…AS UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT…AND
THEN LOWER TO 30 TO 45 PERCENT TOMORROW WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
THE MAXIMUM RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT WITH
FROST FORMATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AGAIN.

THE NEXT WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL BE ON THURSDAY POSSIBLY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY…ALLOWING
RIVER OR RESERVOIR LEVELS TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT…A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST…BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE HALF
AN INCH…TO INCH AND A HALF RANGE BASED ON THE LATEST WPC
GUIDANCE WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLY IN PARTS OF THE CATSKILLS.
WITH THE STREAMFLOWS BEING LOW DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER.
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME…ALTHOUGH MODEL AND
GUIDANCE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…WASULA
NEAR TERM…WASULA
SHORT TERM…WASULA
LONG TERM…IAA
AVIATION…ELH
FIRE WEATHER…KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY…KL/WASULA

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