October 29, 2015 Forecast Discussion

931
FXUS61 KALY 290428
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1228 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS…
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER
POSSIBLE TONIGHT. LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY…BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/…

THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

AS OF 1220 PM EDT…WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN SOME GUSTY WINDS OUT
THERE…NO REPORTS OF ANYTHING REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WE
LET THE WIND EXPIRE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS…NORTHERN
TACONICS…SOUTHERN GREENS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

HOWEVER…THE RAIN KEEPS FALLING…HEAVILY AT TIMES. SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAINLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

ALSO…AN IMPRESSIVE WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION WHERE IT WAS 71 AT POUGHKEEPSIE BUT ONLY 52 AT ALBANY.

THIS FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE FURTHER NORTH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE HIGHER INTO THE 50S AND EVEN INTO THE 60S
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

A NORTHEAST WIND WAS STILL TAKING PLACE FROM ABOUT HUDSON NORTH
ONLY 5-10 MPH…BUT BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FURTHER EAST
AND SOUTH 10-20 MPH…GUSTING TO 35 MPH. EXPECT THE WINDS
TO TURN SOUTHERLY IN MOST PLACES BY SUNRISE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/…
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. STRONGEST
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE LIFTING NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA…BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH A BRIEF SHOWER ALONG A BROKEN LINE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST…WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PWS DECREASE SHARPLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT DEVELOPS SO AREAL
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WITH FRONT WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S HUDSON
VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT TO M/U 60S MTNS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT…SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EXPECT COOL
NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH SOME
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR SATURDAY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST US. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS A
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ALTHOUGH THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60 AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL THEN DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY NEAR 50 NORTH AND 60 FURTHER SOUTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE
FURTHER WARMING INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR…IFR
FLYING CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS…BEFORE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TONIGHT…PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL OCCUR INITIALLY
AT THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 03Z-09Z. CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS…ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY AT KPOU AND
WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO TAPER OFF AFTER 09Z AT THE TAF SITES AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST…BUT LINGERING VCSH WILL REMAIN AT THE TAF SITES.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL START PRIMARILY AS MVFR…BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO PRIMARILY IFR CEILINGS WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
IFR VISIBILITY ASSOCIATED WITH PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN.

A STRONG SSE LOW-LEVEL JET OF 40-60KT WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AT TIMES THROUGH 03Z. ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD OCCUR AFTER
03Z TO ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND THE REMOVAL OF
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

THE WIND WILL SOMEWHAT MIX DOWNWARD RESULTING IN GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS… ESPECIALLY AT KPSF AND KALB WHERE GUSTS
COULD REACH AROUND 30-35 KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT…WITH GUSTS OF GENERALLY 20-25 KNOTS AT KGFL AND KPOU.

THURSDAY…IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER AT THE TAF
SITES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z WITH
INCREASING DAYTIME MIXING. THERE MAY BE A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS
ACCOMPANYING THE SECOND COLD FRONT PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS…BUT HAVE GONE WITH
VCSH AT THIS TIME DUE TO EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT AFTER 21Z.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY THURSDAY VEERING TO THE
SOUTHWEST GENERALLY AROUND 8-15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
20-25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK…
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT…WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
THURSDAY WILL LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
A COMPLEX STORM WILL BRING A ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT…WE ARE EXPECTING 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL…WITH SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 3 IN
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS…SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.

AT THIS POINT…BASED ON RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND
LOW RIVER LEVELS…THE RAINFALL RUNOFF IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREATS. AT THE VERY LEAST SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANKFULL RISES CAN BE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.
ALSO…DUE TO FALLING LEAVES…SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER IS
POSSIBLE WHERE DRAINS GET CLOGGED WITH LEAVES.

LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT
THESE WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE MUCH MORE AFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033-038-
047-054-058-061-063-082.
MA…WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001.
VT…WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…TABER
NEAR TERM…TABER/BGM
SHORT TERM…TABER
LONG TERM…SISSON
AVIATION…IRL
FIRE WEATHER…ALY STAFF
HYDROLOGY…TABER/ALY STAFF

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