February 19, 2015 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 192205
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
505 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS…
IT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD AND BLUSTERY TONIGHT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW AND WIND
CHILL WARNINGS AND WIND CHILLS ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
OF OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY BUT STILL VERY COLD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING SUB
ZERO TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE BUT AT LEAST THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT
OR CALM. A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW…CHANGING
TO A WINTRY MIX NORTH…AND A LITTLE LIQUID RAIN SOUTH…LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/…
WIND CHILL WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT FOR THE ELEVATED TERRAIN
OF THE HUDSON/MOHAWK VALLEY. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND AREAS TO THE EAST.

AS OF 430 PM EST…ONCE AGAIN OUR REGION IN UNDER A SIEGE OF ARCTIC
AIR ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ALREADY…WIND CHILLS ARE AT OR
BELOW ZERO FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD…SINGLE NUMBER SOUTH. ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS…WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS
TO NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RADARS STILL INDICATED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SCATTERED ABOUT…A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP AS WE HEAD INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH EXCEPT ACROSS
THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF ADIRONDACKS AND THE SOUTHERN GREENS WHERE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. IT SHOULD
BE DRY EVERYWHERE WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO TANK TO AROUND ZERO IN THE VALLEYS…5 TO 20
BELOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN…WITH THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL DRIVE WIND CHILLS TO -15 TO 25 IN THE
ADVISORY AREAS (HUDSON/MOHAWK VALLEY EASTWARD) AND -26 TO -35 BELOW
ACROSS THEN HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON/MOHAWK VALLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/…
WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR INTO FRIDAY
MORNING…

THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY…BUT THE WIND
WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 10-20 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE MORNING WILL START STILL WITH DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS…ONLY SLOWLY ABATING.

DESPITE THE SUNSHINE…LOOK FOR HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE TEENS IN THE
VALLEYS (PERHAPS TOUCHING 20 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER
LITCHFIELD)…AND ONLY SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION…AND THE SKY WILL
START OUT CLEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW PACK OVER MOST OF OUR REGION. EVEN IF
CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE BEFORE DAYBREAK…PLENTY OF HOURS OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW
ZERO ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION. WE PROJECT OVERNIGHT LOWS OF 5 TO 10
BELOW ACROSS MOST AREAS IN THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD…10-20
BELOW FURTHER NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. FORTUNATELY THERE SHOULD
BE NO LITTLE OR NO WIND…SO NO ADDED WIND CHILLS VALUES. OUR RECORD
LOW AT ALBANY FOR FEB 21 (SATURDAY MORNING) IS -9 SET IN 1950. WE
ARE FORECASTING A LOW OF -8 SO VERY CLOSE TO A RECORD LOW. DESPITE
ALL OF THE COLD OF LATE…THERE HAVE BEEN NO COLD RECORD
TEMPERATURES SET AT ALBANY.

SATURDAY…ANY SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND THICKENING CLOUDS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW…THIS WILL BE A LOW
PRESSURE WORKING NORTHWARD IN THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM (AS OPPOSED TO
A CLIPPER). THIS STORM WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE IN
THE DAY. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW LOOKS TO
OVERSPREAD OUR ENTIRE REGION BY DAY/S END…YIELDING A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION BY THEN. A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRY TO MODERATE
TEMPERATURES…PERHAPS UP TO AROUND 20-25 BY LATE IN THE DAY…BUT
WENT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN ALL GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT…MOST GUIDANCE NOW AGREES THAT THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
NOT STRENGTHEN THAT MUCH AS IT WORKS THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEYS.
IT LOOKS TO BE MORE OF INVERTED TROUGH AS ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN
STREAM (WHICH ENTERS INTO THE EQUATION SATURDAY NIGHT) LIKELY NEVER
COMPLETELY PHASES WITH THIS SOUTHERN STREAM STORM.

THIS SCENARIO WILL LEAVES US WITH A MODEST OVERRUNNING EVENT
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY A SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER…A LOT OF GGEF MEMBERS
DO INTRODUCE MIXING OF PRECIPITATION AS A WARM NOSE WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO MOST OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. INITIALLY
WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD TO SLEET AND
PERHAPS A LITTLE FREEZING. MOST OF THE GOOD FORCING LOOKS TO BE OVER
ON SUNDAY…BUT WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND AND PERHAPS A
LACK OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS (MID LEVEL DRYING) PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
TURN TO PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS MOST AREAS OUTSIDE
OF THE ADIRONDACKS (WHERE IT WILL EITHER END OR STAY AS A SNOW/SLEET
MIX).

RIGHT NOW…THIS LOOKS LIKE A MODERATE SNOW EVENT (2-6 INCHES). THAT
SAID…THERE ARE SOME SREF AND GGEF MEMBERS GIVING US MORE SNOWFALL
SO THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. ANY FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE LOOKS LIGHT (GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS) BUT COULD
EASILY BE ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS SUNDAY MORNING.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON…IT LOOKS AS IF MANY AREAS WILL GET A BRIEF
PERIODS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER…THAT WILL
BE SHORT-LIVE AND YES ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS HEADS OUR WAY BY DAY/S
END.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/…
MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION AS WE
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS
MONDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A
BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WIND MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.

A SPRAWLING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT
EAST AND SOUTH PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND MOVING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TUESDAY RESULTING IN A FAIR AND COLD WEATHER. ANOTHER NIGHT
WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
NIGHT.

ANOTHER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK DIGGING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. HOWEVER…THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE TO HOW STRONG THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE AND ITS IMPACT. THE
ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER THAN GFS RESULTING IN SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND EVENTUALLY A COASTAL SYSTEM. HAVE FOLLOWED
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER GUIDANCE WHICH HAS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT.
THIS WOULD BRING A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME HAVE ONLY CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT 18Z FRIDAY. HAVE PLACED VCSH IN FOR KGFL…KALB AND
KPSF TIL 20Z AS A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE IN THE AREA. SKIES
WILL MAINLY BE BKN050 BKN100 THIS AFTERNOON AND BKN080 OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED AND BECOME GUSTY
WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT KALB AS THE FLOW IS FUNNELED
DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK…
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
SAT NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PERIODS OF SN.
SUN: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.
SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
MON NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS…STREAMS…LAKES…AND
PONDS…AS CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING
SUNDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO VERY COLD LEVELS ONCE AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEK.

PRECIPITATION WISE…LITTLE OR NO SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT…WITH CHANCES FOR MORE SNOW RETURNING BY LATE SATURDAY
AND ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY…ANY SNOW LOOKS TO
TURN TO A WINTRY MIX OR EVEN A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER…ANY
RAIN WE GET WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS SINCE IT WILL BE
LIGHT…AND TEMPERATURES WERE BARELY BE ABOVE FREEZING SO THE
EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK WILL ABSORB ANY AND ALL RAIN.

THEN…MORE BITTERLY COLD AIR IS POISED TO FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SOME GAGES WILL EXPERIENCE ICE EFFECTS…AND SOME ERRONEOUS DATA MAY
BE SEEN FROM TIME TO TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR CTZ001-013.
NY…WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR NYZ032-033-038-047-051-058-063-082.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR NYZ039>043-048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.
MA…WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR MAZ001-025.
VT…WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…HWJIV
NEAR TERM…HWJIV
SHORT TERM…HWJIV
LONG TERM…IAA
AVIATION…IAA/HWJIV/11
HYDROLOGY…FRUGIS/HWJIV

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