February 9, 2015 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 091755
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1255 PM EST MON FEB 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS…
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN…WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE SNOW TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY…AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/…
WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NY AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND…

AS OF 1255 PM EST…LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BASED ON THE KENX AND REGIONAL MOSAIC
RADARS. THE MOST SUSTAINED SNOWFALL IS OVER CNTRL AND ERN MA.
SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THE MODERATE POCKETS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN
THE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH/HR RANGE. AT THIS TIME…WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SNOWFALL RATES TO EXCEED THIS RANGE DUE TO SOMEWHAT
LIMITED FORCING AND POOR SNOW GROWTH OR PCPN EFFICIENCY.

PLEASE SEE OUR LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT WITH SNOW
TALLIES OVER THE PAST 24-34 HRS. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL
BE COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION…EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NW
ZONES ONLY 1 TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL HAS BEEN
ACROSS THE SRN DACKS…PARTS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY…LAKE GEORGE
REGION…SRN VT…AND THE NRN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY.

TEMPS HAVE BEEN NUDGED UP A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE LATEST HOURLY
TRENDS. EXPECT UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S FOR HIGHS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT…

AS FOR ADDITIONAL FORCING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING…IT
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS…AND REMAINING
MAINLY S AND W OF OUR REGION…LIMITING OUR POTENTIAL FOR MUCH
FROM UPPER DEFORMATION/F-GEN. SO…EXPECT THE SNOWFALL TO TAPER
OFF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO SNOW SHOWERS…WITH PERHAPS SOME
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT.

AS COLDER CLOUD TOPS BEGIN TO DEPART LATER TONIGHT…DESPITE
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS REMAINING…THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE/SNOW GRAINS TO OCCUR.
HAVE ADDED THIS MENTION IN THE GRIDDED DATABASE…WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL MAINLY N AND W OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMTS TONIGHT…MOST AREAS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
AN INCH…PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY…BERKSHIRES…AND NW CT.

ALSO…REGARDING POTENTIAL MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE…THE OVERALL
PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM TO FIT THE OVERALL SCHEME AS SUGGESTED IN
THE CSTAR RESEARCH…ESP WITHOUT MUCH OF A SFC LOW ALONG OR JUST
S/E OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. INSTEAD…A GENERAL NE TO N LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED…WITHOUT MUCH OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT
DEVELOPING DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY WHICH ENHANCES LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE JUNCTION WITH THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S TODAY…AND
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT…LOW CLOUDS MAY BE TOUGH TO BREAK UP
INITIALLY TUE MORNING…BUT INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CLEARING BY AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS. THEN…A GENERALLY CLEAR
SKY…LIGHT WINDS AND A DEEP FRESH SNOWPACK SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL RAPIDLY TUE NT. THEREFORE…HAVE GONE BELOW ALL MOS…WITH
MINS GENERALLY IN THE 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW RANGE…COLDEST ACROSS
SHELTERED VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TUE MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN MOST VALLEYS…AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

WED…SUNSHINE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
IN THE AFTERNOON…IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SOME SNOW AND OR SNOW SHOWERS COULD REACH
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE 20S IN VALLEYS…AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/…
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH STRONG UPPER SYSTEMS TRACKING THROUGH
THE CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IN EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ONE UPPER IMPULSE TIMED TO TRACK THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO FOLLOW.

THESE UPPER SYSTEMS ARE BASED IN THE NORTHERN STEAM AND WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OTHER THAN SOME LAKE EFFECT
MOISTURE. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE WELL ENOUGH TO THE
EAST TO KEEP ANY DEVELOPING ATLANTIC STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY WELL OFFSHORE.

BUT STILL…SOME MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…
STEADY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON…AS MOISTURE OVER-
RUNS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE REGION.

MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN START
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. PREDOMINANTLY IFR VISIBILITIES WITH
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL 00Z-03Z AT WHICH TIME VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR WITH VFR/MVFR CIGS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO TUE MRNG BFR SKIES EVENTUALLY BECOME SCT035-045 BY
MIDDAY ON TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 4-6 KTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK…
MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PERIODS OF SN…MAINLY IN THE EVENING.
TUE-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE
WHICH WILL ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS…STREAMS CREEKS…LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH TODAY. THERE
WILL BE THREAT OF MAINLY LIGHTS SNOW LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS…KL/GJM
NEAR TERM…KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM…KL
LONG TERM…NAS
AVIATION…11/NAS
HYDROLOGY…KL/GJM

Unless otherwise stated, the content of this page is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 License