February 8, 2015 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 090303
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1003 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS…
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON MONDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN…WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/…
A WINTER STORM STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THANK YOU FOR ALL YOUR SNOWFALL REPORTS. FOR THE LATEST REPORTS
CHECK OUT OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT.

AS OF 1003 PM EST…STEADY SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA…ALTHOUGH RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING POCKETS
OF LIGHTER SNOW…ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS. GENERALLY
SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM JUST TODAY HAVE RANGED FROM AROUND 2-6
INCHES. SIMILAR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT…WITH
GENERALLY STEADY SNOW PERSISTING.

ALTHOUGH BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY…EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SNOW TO FALL DURING THIS TIME. SOME SMALL BANDS OR
BANDLETS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOME AREAS…WHICH WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE
THE SNOWFALL. THE HRRR INDICATING THESE BANDS TO MAINLY SET UP
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS…WHERE SNOWFALL HAS BEEN RATHER SCARCE THUS
FAR. SO WILL NOT CHANGE SNOWFALL FORECAST AT THIS TIME…AS THERE
IS STILL A LOT OF TIME THAT IT WILL BE SNOWING.

ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED SURFACE
LOW THAT STRETCHES ALONG THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES HAS RESULTED IN
THE STEADY SNOW RETURNING TO THE REGION. AND DUE TO THE SLOW
EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW…IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME
BEFORE SNOW ENDS.

EXPECT ABOUT 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/…
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES
THROUGH 600 AM TUESDAY MORNING…

THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY…AND THE
VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE
DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING SNOW INTENSITY MONDAY
AFTERNOON…BUT THE SNOW WILL NOT COMPLETELY END UNTIL LATER
MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE SNOW FINALLY ENDS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE 15
TO 25. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 5 TO 15.

AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT…
BRINGING FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S
TO LOWER 30S AND WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7
DAYS (ALTHOUGH THESE TEMPS ARE STILL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL). LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/…
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM QUICKLY GIVES WAY
TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM THE WEST…WHICH TRACKS FROM CHICAGOLAND TO
LONG ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY…PROVIDING EVEN MORE SNOW TO OUR AREA.
COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL BE REINFORCED BY AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT…RESULTING IN CONTINUED MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND CLIPPER TRACKING EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WILL PROVIDE
EVEN LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOW…BUT A REINFORCEMENT OF EVEN COLDER
TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDEST…WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S…SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. FRIDAY WILL BE COLDEST…WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND ZERO TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE…ABOUT 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS FOR
LOWS…WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDEST…WITH READINGS MOSTLY DOWN
IN THE TEENS…SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE
COLDEST…WITH LOWS FROM AROUND MINUS 5 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY…TO AROUND 20 BELOW IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS…AROUND 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/…
STEADY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY…AS MOISTURE OVER-
RUNS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE REGION.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RESULT…WITH VSBYS BECOMING
PREDOMINANTLY IFR THIS EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. CIGS MAINLY IN MVFR RANGE EARLY THIS EVENING…WILL LOWER TO
IFR RANGE OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK…

MON NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PERIODS OF SN…MAINLY IN THE
EVENING.
TUE-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE
WHICH WILL ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS…STREAMS CREEKS…LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…GJM
NEAR TERM…GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM…GJM
LONG TERM…ELH
AVIATION…JPV
HYDROLOGY…GJM

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