January 27, 2015 Forecast discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 272133
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
433 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS…
NOR`EASTER POSITIONED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
AND PULL AWAY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY…BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A COLD AIR MASS
IN PLACE. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY…AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/…
AS OF 430 PM…LATEST CHANGES TO HEADLINES INCLUDE CONVERTING THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD.

IMPRESSIVE AREA OF SNOW DISJOINTED FROM THE MAIN BATCH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOW AFFECTED MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL NY FROM
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. DEFORMATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION LIKELY
CONTRIBUTED TO THIS LONG LIVED AREA OF SNOW. WITHIN THIS LARGER
AREA…THERE WERE SMALLER SCALE SNOW BANDS THAT SET UP DUE TO LOCAL
CONVERGENCE ZONES…INCLUDING MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE /MHC/ IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. SNOWFALL TOTALS ENDING UP LESS THAN FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE DURATION OF THE STORM.
HOWEVER…LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS
OF 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE MHC ENHANCEMENT…WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS FROM EARLIER ACROSS PARTS OF DUTCHESS/BERKSHIRE/LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES OF 4 TO 9 INCHES.

THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SNOWFALL NOW CONFINED TO COASTAL
MAINE/MASSACHUSETTS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOR`EASTER. RADAR
RETURNS FINALLY INDICATING WEAKENING OF THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEFORMATION/CONVERGENCE IN EAST-CENTRAL NY…ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR
ENHANCEMENT STILL NOTED IN ALBANY/SCHENECTADY COUNTIES WITH THE MHC.
WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING FOR THESE
AREAS WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
OTHERWISE THE MAIN ISSUE IS GOING TO BE BLOWING SNOW DUE TO A GUSTY
NORTHERLY WIND THAT WILL RESULT FROM THE FRESH POWDERY SNOW ON THE
GROUND. SO ALL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 8 PM.

SNOW EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF COMPLETELY BY LATER THIS EVENING AS THE
NOR`EASTER PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. COLD
TEMPERATURES IN STORE TONIGHT WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE MAKING IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER. MIN TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/…
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. STILL WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RUN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MUCH OF THE REGION
SHOULD EXPERIENCE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. TRANQUIL
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
GRADUALLY DRIFTS OVER THE REGION. WITH WIND SPEEDS DIMINISHING AND
FRESH SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND…TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
THE -5 TO 5 ABOVE RANGE FOR MINS ACROSS THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES…WITH
SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY. WHILE THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH…CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR A
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION
LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY…WITH
THE BRUNT OF THE SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT. AS OF
NOW IT APPEARS THAT A 2-4 INCH SNOW FALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA…HOWEVER HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3-6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THESE WESTERN AREAS IN
THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED
SNOWS EXITING FRIDAY…AND SOME COLD ADVECTION. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY…TRENDING INTO THE SCHOHARIE
VALLEY AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY…AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST. DRY WEATHER LATER SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY…WITH
A CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW.

QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AS TO PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT…WHICH IS A FIRST HINT THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE MIXED
PRECIPITATION…DEPENDING ON THE STORM TRACK. THIS FAR OUT…JUST
GOING CHANCES FOR SNOW…AGAIN…WHEREVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ALL SNOW…THERE IS A SUGGESTION FROM MOST GUIDANCE SOURCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK TO BE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/…
AS THE STORM JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
AWAY…IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KGFL/KALB TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 21Z/22Z…AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT KPSF/KPOU
TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. THEREAFTER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY 23Z-01Z. AFTER 01Z…EXPECT VFR CIGS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z WEDNESDAY AT ALL
THE TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD…BUT
WILL VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK…

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW…WITH
SNOWFALL ENDING TONIGHT…WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW LIKELY LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS…STREAMS…CREEKS…LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-
013.
NY…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ041>043-048>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…JPV
NEAR TERM…JPV
SHORT TERM…JPV
LONG TERM…NAS
AVIATION…GJM
HYDROLOGY…JPV

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