January 19, 2015 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 192355
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 PM EST MON JAN 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS…
HIGH PRESSURE FROM HUDSON BAY WILL BUILD DOWN INTO OUR REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES BUT DRY WEATHER.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MIGHT BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF NUISANCE SNOW TO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/…
AS OF 650 PM EST…MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION…WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS A BIT MORE PREVALENT IN
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CT. VERY WEAK RADAR
RETURNS CONTINUE TO BE DEPICTED ON NEARBY RADARS…SUGGESTING SOME
FLURRIES AND/OR SNOW GRAINS ARE OCCURRING.

CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH WEAK REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLDER AIR WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THIS EVENING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY…AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND
BERKSHIRES. IN THESE AREAS…A COATING TO LESS THAN ONE INCH OF
SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING…WITH THE CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING
FROM N TO S LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
SO…THE CLOUD COVER AND THE WINDS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S…SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/…
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO RESOLVE
A COUPLE OF QUICK MOVING…WEAK UPPER IMPULSES THAT FOR NOW LOOK
TO TRACK JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THESE ARE NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES STARVED FOR
MOISTURE…SO ONLY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE ADJUSTED AS THEY DEVELOP
AND TRACK TOWARD OUR REGION…BUT ANY IMPACT WOULD BE LITTLE IF
ANY…WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW IN SOME AREAS…IF THE EVENTUAL
TRACKS OF THE SYSTEMS SUPPORT IT.

THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FURTHER NORTH
INTO CENTRAL NY…WITH EVEN SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS IN NORTHERN
AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS…EVENTUALLY TO CALM BY TUESDAY
NIGHT…WITH LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH THE
COLD AIR OVER THE REGION…AND PERHAPS DUE TO THE LIMITED MIXING
WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S…SOME UPPER TEENS
TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S…AROUND 20 IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/…
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS…AND
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION…AS SEVERAL FAST MOVING…LOW AMPLITUDE
WAVES PASS SOUTH…AND NORTH OF THE REGION. WILL HAVE TO REMAIN
VIGILANT TO FUTURE MODEL TRENDS…IN CASE SOME INTERACTION/PHASING
OCCURS BETWEEN WAVES IN THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM…RESULTING IN
A STORMIER/WETTER SCENARIO.

BUT…BASED ON THE CURRENT SUITE OF GUIDANCE…IT APPEARS THAT ONE
WAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES FOR LATE FRI-SUN…AS A
POTENTIALLY MORE POTENT SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE GULF COAST REGION OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ASSUMING THESE WAVES REMAIN FAR APART…AS MOST
12Z/19 DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST…LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION…OTHER THAN PERHAPS
SOME WARM ADVECTION/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME…ALONG WITH PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD REACH OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

OTHERWISE…MAX TEMPS WILL MAINLY REACH THE 20S FOR VALLEYS…AND
TEENS FOR HIGHER TERRAIN…ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHT MODERATION IS
POSSIBLE FOR SAT-SUN DUE TO A MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE PASSING NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THIS COULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO REACH THE 30S IN SOME VALLEYS AND 20S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN.
OVERNIGHT MINS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS…ALTHOUGH MAY BE SLIGHTLY MILDER FOR SAT NT/SUN AM WITHIN A
PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT…AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/WED.
HOWEVER…THERE COULD BE A FEW PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH 02Z-
04Z/TUE AT KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. OTHERWISE…VFR LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TONIGHT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8-12 KT THIS EVENING…WITH
SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS WILL THEN
DECREASE TO MAINLY UNDER 8 KT LATER TONIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8-12 KT TUESDAY…WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS
REACHING INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK…

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IT TURNS COLDER
WHICH WILL LIKELY MEAN THE RIVERS MAKE MORE ICE.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM…INTERACTING WITH ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM…MIGHT PRODUCE A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

NO MORE RAIN STORMS ARE SEEN ANYTIME SOON. IT LOOKS TO STAY QUITE
COLD THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…NAS
NEAR TERM…KL/NAS
SHORT TERM…NAS
LONG TERM…KL
AVIATION…KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY…HWJIV/NAS

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