January 8, 2015 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 090215
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
915 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS…
WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE…CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER STORM
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING…BEFORE TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE CLIPPER STORM…IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RATHER COLD…WITH A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/…
AS OF 915 PM EST…TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA TO THE MID AND UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA. WINDS ARE NOT AS
GUSTY AS LAST NIGHT…WHICH IS KEEPING WIND CHILL VALUES FROM
BEING TOO COLD.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NY AND
PA ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER STORM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SKY COVER HAS BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS EVENING…WHICH WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. IN FACT…MOST
AREAS WILL SEE THEIR MIN TEMPS THIS EVENING…WITH TEMPS EITHER
HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MINS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO THE TEENS FOR VALLEY AREAS.

AS THE CLIPPER STORM RAPIDLY MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES…LIGHT
PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT…REACHING THE CAPITAL REGION AND HUDSON VALLEY AREAS BY
ABOUT 4 AM. WITH THIS BEING A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM…THERE WON/T
BE AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. STILL…ENOUGH QPF IS
FORECASTED TO ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT SNOW FOR THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS…WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS
LOOK TO SEE A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY ABOUT SUNRISE
FRIDAY…MAKING FOR A SLIPPERY MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/…
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS…

THE CLIPPER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTING THE REGION ON
FRIDAY MORNING. THE SFC LOW WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE
AREA…BUT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS TO TRACK RIGHT OVER
UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR A FEW HOURS ON FRIDAY MORNING…BEFORE TAPERING TO SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE LATE MORNING. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO LOOKS TO ACCUMULATE…SO STORM TOTALS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES…WITH HIGHEST TOTALS IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY TO START THE DAY…SOME BREAKS ON
SUN ARE POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPS WON/T BE AS COLD AS RECENT DAYS…WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
20S THANKS TO GOOD DAYTIME MIXING. IN ADDITION…THIS WILL MAKE IT
RATHER BREEZY…ESP FOR THE MORNING WHEN SW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WILL GUST UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY AFTERNOON AT
5 TO 15 MPH…WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH STILL POSSIBLE.

BEHIND THE CLIPPER STORM…ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD ARCTIC AIR LOOKS
TO POUR INTO THE REGION ALOFT…WITH 850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING LOWER
THAN -20 DEGREES C. WITH THE FLOW ALIGNING OVER LAKE ONTARIO…THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SINGLE LONG AXIS BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
DEVELOP OFF LAKE ONTARIO. INITIALLY…THIS BAND LOOKS TO AFFECT
AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR THE MORNING HOURS
AS SHOWN BY THE 18Z RUN OF OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF…BUT THE BAND LOOK
TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY THE
AFTERNOON…AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. WITH THIS IN
MIND…WE HAVE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER
AND HAMILTON COUNTIES STARTING AT 11 AM AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE BAND LOOK TO MEANDER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IT LOOKS TO MAINLY IMPACT AREAS FROM OLD
FORGE ON NORTHWARD…AND WITH OUR LOCAL CSTAR RESEARCH SHOWING INLAND
EXTENT OFF THE LAKE OF ABOUT 100 MILES…IT SHOULD CLEARLY BRING
THE BAND INTO NORTH-CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTY. SNOW RATES MAY BE UP
TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WITHIN THE CORE OF THE BAND…MAKING FOR
QUITE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL /ALTHOUGH MOST PEOPLE TRAVELING IN THIS
AREA WILL BE VIA SNOWMOBILE ANYWAY/.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF BY LATE IN THE DAY
SATURDAY. BY THIS POINT…TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 8
INCHES IN THE OLD FORGE/INLET AREA TO AROUND 16 INCHES TOWARDS
STILLWATER RESERVOIR AND BEAVER RIVER. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO SAT NIGHT…BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS DONE BY THAT POINT.

OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY…IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
CONTINUED COLD. THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY DOWN INTO THE CATSKILLS THANKS TO
CYCLONIC FLOW AND MOISTURE FROM LAKE ERIE…BUT THIS WON/T AMOUNT
TO MUCH. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR FRI
NIGHT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. LOWS
ON SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/…
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS WITH STILL
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR PART OF THE
PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ROTATE THROUGH OUR REGION WITH THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LONG WAVE
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WITH A STRONG VORT MAX ON TUESDAY.

THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT WITH A WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
ON SUNDAY OFF THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO. MEANWHILE FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN PASS NORTH OF THE FA INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE DELMARVA REGION AND
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM HAS AT THE VERY LEAST A
CHANCE TO BRING LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER
30S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AND HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE 20S TO MID 30S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXPECT MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FA DURING THIS PERIOD. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
COLD. ANY STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF
OUR REGION. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
AROUND 20 WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.
TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER 20S WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY WIDESPREAD SNOW LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND TRACK OF SYSTEM ARE UNCERTAIN AS GFS HAS A TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND THE ECMWF BRINGS A
SYSTEM NORTH UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
UNTIL 07Z TO 08Z WHEN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS SNOW
MOVES INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. BETWEEN 07Z-
15Z HAVE FORECAST IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU.
INDICATING VCSH AFTER 15Z AT THE TAF SITES WHERE SNOW SHOULD END
SOMETIME AROUND MIDDAY. AFTER 18Z-20Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR WITH SUN APPEARING AS SKIES GO SCT035-040.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT AROUND 5-10 KTS
BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING. TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING… SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10-20 KTS
AND GUST AS HIGH AS 30-32 KTS.

OUTLOOK…

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
COLD WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD…WHICH WILL ALLOW ICE TO CONTINUE TO FORM AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS…STREAMS…LAKES AND PONDS. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME FREEZE UP JAMS OCCUR IN THE ADIRONDACKS OR SOUTHERN
VERMONT DUE TO THE EXTREME COLD IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE LIGHT SNOW…ALTHOUGH
SOME SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT WILL OCCUR IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…FRUGIS
NEAR TERM…FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM…FRUGIS
LONG TERM…11
AVIATION…11/NAS
HYDROLOGY…FRUGIS

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