December 14, 2014 Forecast discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 150301
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL YIELD FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO OUR REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/…
AS OF 945 PM…LIGHT RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST THAT SOME FLURRIES…
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS…ALTHOUGH
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE STATE AND REGION INDICATE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY PCPN. HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE…
FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH ABOUT 200 AM.

THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY HAVE REMAINED MAINLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING AND TEMPS HAVE DROPPED THE MOST
THERE DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPS AND
THE MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT TO TAKE THIS INTO ACCOUNT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION…
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION MUCH OF THE DAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA. OVERNIGHT EXPECT CLOUDS MAY SLOWLY
DISSIPATE SOME SO WILL GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
TO GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST WITH THE CENTER OF
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY MORNING.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD CONSIDERING THE DEEP
SNOWPACK IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STARTS TO TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH WITH
STRONG INVERSION STILL IN PLACE IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
MUCH SUN AND CLEARING WE WILL SEE. WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY ON
MONDAY AND EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AT NIGHT IN THE 20S.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
WITH MAINLY RAIN ARRIVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY TRICKY FORECAST.
PCPN TYPE ICONS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS…PARTIAL THICKNESS
VALUES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SUPPORT SOME FREEZING PCPN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION. WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WILL BE MAINLY RAIN WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN. WILL SEPARATE OUT THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION FOR THE
IN THE HWO FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE ACCRETION. CURRENTLY HAVE
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION IN THE GRIDS WITH
THE GREATEST ICE ACCRETION ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY.
EXPECT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. ANY ICE ACCRETION
SHOULD END FAIRLY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/…
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK…AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD…THE REGION WILL BE UNDERNEATH
A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE EXITING TO THE
EAST AND USHERING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THIS UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY…WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT…WITH
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY…BUT LITTLE
SUBSIDENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGING AND MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY…AS
INTENSIFYING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SPAWNS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE 12Z GFS AND MOST OF
THE GEFS MEMBERS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAKER SOLUTION…WITH A
MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT DOES NOT
PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A MUCH STRONGER SOLUTION WITH COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING
AS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS PHASE…BRINGING ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO THE REGION.

WITH STILL SEVERAL DAYS TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM…WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR CHANGE REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL
SYSTEM…ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 30.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/…
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z TUESDAY. MAINLY MVFR CIGS AT THESE
SITES WITH OVC CONDITIONS TONIGHT. AT KPSF…CIGS ARE ALSO FORECAST
TO LOWER TO IFR LEVELS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. LATER
MONDAY MORNING…THE CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO BREAK UP…BUT EXPECT
BKN MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

AT KPOU…SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING SHOULD BECOME BKN/OVC
LATER TONIGHT AND BE MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING…THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP AND BECOME SCT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM GENERALLY CALM AT KPOU/KGFL…AND
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS AT KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTHWEST
AT 8 KTS OR LESS ON MONDAY AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES…EXCEPT KGFL
WHERE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY.

OUTLOOK…

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA…SHSN.
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME SLOW MELTING OF
THE SNOW COVER IS LIKELY EACH DAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME PCPN
WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MAINLY RAIN
EXCEPT A WINTRY MIX TO THE NORTH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…11
NEAR TERM…GJM/11
SHORT TERM…11
LONG TERM…IRL
AVIATION…GJM
HYDROLOGY…11

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