December 10, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 110039
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
739 PM EST WED DEC 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM…LOCATED TO OUR EAST…WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY…BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AND SLIPPERY ROADS. THE STORM WILL FINALLY MOVE FURTHER TO
OUR EAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN TO PROVIDE
A MAINLY DRY WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/…
ALL HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL 700 AM THURSDAY.

AS OF 730 PM EST…THE BAND OF SNOW HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST AND HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE. IN ITS WAKE LIGHT MORE
INTERMITTENT SNOW CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION.

IT LOOKS AS IF THE BEST FORCING HAS WEAKENED AS THE EXIT REGION OF
AN UPPER LEVEL JET HAS MOVED AWAY AND THE UPPER AIR LOW WAS WORKING
RIGHT OVER THE CAPITAL REGION…REDUCING LIFT.

STILL…CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP
LIGHT SNOW GOING MUCH OF THEN NIGHT. ALL HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS
IS. LOOK AN ADDITIONAL 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM HERE ON IN THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER 7 INCHES IN
CAPITAL REGION BUT MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS WELL OVER A FOOT ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN…SOME LOCALITIES COMING IN TO CLOSE TO TWO FEET BY
THURSDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR PUBLIC STATEMENTS (PNS) FOR
ALL THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS SUPPLIED BY OUR
CO-OP/COCORAHS/FACEBOOK AND TWEETER FOLKS.

TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS…STILL JUST ABOVE FREEZING. EVERYONE WILL DIP TO BELOW
FREEZING BY MIDNIGHT OR SO.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE 20S EVERYWHERE…INSURING
WHATEVER FALLS WILL FREEZE SOLID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/…
THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE STILL NEARLY
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY BUT WEAKENING AS MORE DRY AIR INTRUDES INTO ITS
CENTER. NEVERTHELESS WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
OR SNOW SHOWERS MOST PLACES WITH ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
ANYWHERE 1 TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES (HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS). AT THIS
TIME…WE DID NOT CARRY HEADLINES INTO THURSDAY SINCE THIS
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOULD HAVE A LOT LESS IMPACT THAN WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN. OBVIOUSLY…WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 30S
SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY…THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY
MOVE EAST TAKING MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT. THERE STILL COULD
BE A FEW ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THANKS TO CYCLONIC FLOW…WITH
LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

LOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S…HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 30S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY…FINALLY HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES AND ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND WE ARE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER…SOME
MOISTURE MIGHT GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION…TRAPPING
CLOUDS IN AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES. OVERALL…A BETTER WEATHER
PATTERN THAN THIS WEEK.

ASSUMING WE HOLD ONTO CLOUDS…LOWS FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS NORTH…LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH. IF WE LOOSE THE CLOUDS…WE
COULD DIP A BIT COLDER THAN THESE VALUES. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
THIS WILL BE A MUCH-WELCOMED DRY PERIOD WITH MOSTLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES…AND OCCASIONAL PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. EARLY ON…HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. BY TUESDAY…THE HIGH WILL STRETCH
FROM THE BAHAMAS TO NEW YORK. DESPITE THIS HIGH PRESSURE…A
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LAKE-ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AROUND.
SUNSHINE WILL BE AVAILABLE…BUT LIMITED. THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN…WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GREATER SUNSHINE TOWARD MID-WEEK.

MEANWHILE…LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE COLORADO ROCKIES WILL
BECOME MOISTURE-STARVED AND WEAKEN AS IT JOURNEYS EAST. IT WILL
PASS QUICKLY OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH NO IMPACT ON OUR
ZONES…THE NORTHERN EXTENT SUPPRESSED BY A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF POUGHKEEPSIE ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD AT MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…
THE SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE REGION. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION AS ITS DRAWN UNDER THE
UPPER LOW AND THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED THURSDAY.

SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW SHOULD BE
OVER. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
PERIODS OF SNOW. AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
AROUND SUNRISE AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION WITH SNOW
SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED. CEILINGS WILL RISE HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST EXCEPT AT KPOU WHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK…
THU NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRI-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOST RIVERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
HAVE CRESTED WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE FORM SNOW HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
WATERSHEDS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ061.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058-063-082>084.
MA…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ025.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ015.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…HWJIV
NEAR TERM…HWJIV
SHORT TERM…HWJIV
LONG TERM…HWJIV
AVIATION…IAA
HYDROLOGY…IAA/HWJIV

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