Tuesday December 9 2014

Thoughts on this morning's storm

Last Updated:
1:30PM Tuesday
December 9, 2014

School Forecast For:
Wednesday December 10, 2014
Two Hour Delay No School Early Dismissal
0% 0% 0%

Forecast Overview
Last Updated: 1:30PM December 9th

1:30PM Tuesday

Rain will continue throughout the day, before becoming less steady tonight. Scattered rain showers may last into Wednesday, and there is a slight possibility of residual snow showers Wednesday night. If it looks like we may see accumulations, I will update the probabilities by 10PM Wednesday night. Otherwise, significant weather is not anticipated through the weekend, and I will have a full update on Sunday.

I want to take a moment to reflect on this morning's storm impacts. Because of the way it forms, freezing rain and icy precipitation are some of the most difficult types of local weather to predict. Usually, our region only sees two or three notable ice events per year. In many cases meteorological forecasts are either simply not precise enough to adequately anticipate the impacts of these ice events, or when the threat of ice is correctly forecast the communication of the potential impacts may be ambiguous since icing events are rarely made with high confidence.

I comment on this topic because of the accident that took place this morning in neighboring Sullivan County, ending a person's life. The weather and road conditions during the accident, were similar to those in Ulster County, and that one individual could have been anyone in our Mid-Hudson Valley. What my point boils down to is, weather and impact predictions are always going to vary in accuracy, but what really matters is what actually happens. Always take some extra time to consciously use your judgement when it comes to going out in inclement conditions, regardless of whether work or school says it is safe enough for you to travel.

Let's enjoy the winter that awaits us,
but lets keep it safe…
know what I mean?

-Ethan

Quick-Forecast Table
AM Temp PM Temp Weather Confidence
Tuesday 22-27 30-35 PM Clouds High
Wednesday 30-35 40-45 AM Snow/Rain High
Thursday 30-35 35-40 Clear High
Friday 20-30 30-40 Partly Cloudy Medium
Saturday 30-40 35-45 Rain Showers Low
Sunday 25-35 35-45 Partly Cloudy Low
Last Updated: 5:00PM Monday December 1, 2014 (Not Current)
Kingstonsnows Text Forecast
Last Updated: 5:00PM December 1st (Not Current)

Tuesday and Wednesday

Clouds building in Tuesday afternoon.
Light snow developing Tuesday evening.
Snow mixing with, then changing over to rain early Wednesday morning. All precipitation clearing around sunrise.
Overnight lows around 30.

Any snow accumulations will depend on the timing of the changeover, however, right now it appears that there is the potential for an inch or so at least on the grassy surfaces. Temperatures in the 40s should melt any accumulations on Wednesday.

Thursday and Friday

No significant weather anticipated.
Temperatures generally running in the 30's.
Low temperatures could dip into the 20's Thursday night.

Saturday and Sunday

Warmer with a chance of rain showers, mainly on Saturday.
Clouds lingering into Sunday morning.
Highs around 40, lows in the 30s.

Long-range school impact (probability)
The long range impact is a general outlook, and is not a specific forecast.
Day (Date) Delay Cancellation E.D. Confidence
Monday (Dec. 1) - - - -
Tuesday (Dec. 2) None None None High
Wednesday (Dec. 3) Medium Low None Medium
Thursday (Dec. 4) None None None High
Friday (Dec. 5) None None None High
Long range impact last Updated: 5:00PM December 1, 2014 (Not Current)

Kingstonsnows ♦ Kingston, NY
Since January 2009

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