Monday December 8 2014

Storm to bring snow, changing to rain.

Last Updated:
10:00PM Monday
December 8, 2014

School Forecast For:
Tuesday December 9, 2014
Two Hour Delay No School Early Dismissal
40% 20% 0%

Forecast Overview
Last Updated: 10:00PM December 8th

10:00PM Update

Overall thinking remains largely unchanged from this afternoon. Still expecting snow to breakout a bit before sunrise. Temperatures leading up to the start time will be rising out of the 20's, so most surfaces should be cool enough to allow some accumulation. Temperatures begin to rise above freezing after 7AM-ish, with a change over to rain likely between 7AM and 10AM.

Snow accumulations will depend on the precipitation start time… an earlier start time (around 3AM) will result in greater accumulations (about 1 to 2 inches) before temperatures rise. A later start (after 5AM) time will result in lesser accumulations (generally under an inch), and less chance of any impacts. There are some indications to support the later scenario, but not enough to alter the overall probabilities. All things considered, a delay is possible tomorrow morning, but by no means a certainty.

4:20PM Monday

A coastal storm is still slated to bring a widespread snowfall to the region. However, across the local area the storm will start off as a period of snow before transitioning to a potentially heavy rain.

There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with the exact onset time, and especially the timing of the change over to rain. As of right now, however, current thinking is as follows:

Snow developing around 5AM.
Changeover to rain occurring between 7AM and 10AM.
Rain throughout the rest of the day.
Heavy rain possible in the afternoon.
Steadiest rain tapering off after midnight.

As of right now, there appears to be the potential for an inch or two of snow accumulation Tuesday morning, depending on when the change over occurs.

Next Update by 10PM.

Quick-Forecast Table
AM Temp PM Temp Weather Confidence
Tuesday 22-27 30-35 PM Clouds High
Wednesday 30-35 40-45 AM Snow/Rain High
Thursday 30-35 35-40 Clear High
Friday 20-30 30-40 Partly Cloudy Medium
Saturday 30-40 35-45 Rain Showers Low
Sunday 25-35 35-45 Partly Cloudy Low
Last Updated: 5:00PM Monday December 1, 2014 (Not Current)
Kingstonsnows Text Forecast
Last Updated: 5:00PM December 1st (Not Current)

Tuesday and Wednesday

Clouds building in Tuesday afternoon.
Light snow developing Tuesday evening.
Snow mixing with, then changing over to rain early Wednesday morning. All precipitation clearing around sunrise.
Overnight lows around 30.

Any snow accumulations will depend on the timing of the changeover, however, right now it appears that there is the potential for an inch or so at least on the grassy surfaces. Temperatures in the 40s should melt any accumulations on Wednesday.

Thursday and Friday

No significant weather anticipated.
Temperatures generally running in the 30's.
Low temperatures could dip into the 20's Thursday night.

Saturday and Sunday

Warmer with a chance of rain showers, mainly on Saturday.
Clouds lingering into Sunday morning.
Highs around 40, lows in the 30s.

Long-range school impact (probability)
The long range impact is a general outlook, and is not a specific forecast.
Day (Date) Delay Cancellation E.D. Confidence
Monday (Dec. 1) - - - -
Tuesday (Dec. 2) None None None High
Wednesday (Dec. 3) Medium Low None Medium
Thursday (Dec. 4) None None None High
Friday (Dec. 5) None None None High
Long range impact last Updated: 5:00PM December 1, 2014 (Not Current)

Kingstonsnows ♦ Kingston, NY
Since January 2009

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