November 17, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 171010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
510 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
ONE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD…BUT A STRONGER
ONE WILL TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION TODAY. THESE STORMS
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO MANY IN THE REGION…TURNING TO RAIN BY
THIS AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACKS. AS THE STORMS
CONSOLIDATE TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT…THEY WILL DRIVE MUCH COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/…
AS OF 510 AM…SNOW FLAKES BECAME HUGE AS THEY CLUMPED TOGETHER AND
THEN TURNED TO SLEET AND EVEN RAIN HERE AT OUR OFFICE. WARMER AIR
WAS SURGING IN…BUT STILL SNOW NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

HAVE HAD REPORTS UP TO 3 INCHES LOCALLY IN THE SCHOHARIE
COUNTY…ABOUT AN INCH IN ALBANY…AND A LITTLE MORE NORTH.

SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION…IT LOOKED AS IF MOSTLY RAIN WAS
FALLING…BUT ACCORDING TO OBSERVERS FROM FACEBOOK AND OTHER
NETWORKS…THERE WERE POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD…CLOSER TO 30 FURTHER NORTH.

OUTSIDE OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN TACONICS… THE
REST REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE ADVISORY. AREAS AROUND THE CAPITAL
REGION WILL SEE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL…2-5 FURTHER NORTH…LITTLE
OR NO SOUTH. HOWEVER…THERE WILL THOSE POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN…ESPECIALLY IN THE BERKSHIRES WHERE A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
COULD ACCRETE.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING
THE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE PRECIPITATION MIGHT NOT BECOME ALL LIQUID RAIN AT
ALL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY SHOULD REACH AROUND 40 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD…MID TO UPPER 30S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN…LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

TUE-TUE NT…COLD AND WINDY…WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL AS
H700 TEMPS IN THE -22 TO -25 C RANGE PASS OVER THE LAKES. MOST
MODELS SUGGEST A GENERAL WEST TO WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WIND
TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE LAKES…ALONG WITH SOME SHEAR AND AN
AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WHICH COULD OCCASIONALLY DISRUPT THE
BANDS. HOWEVER…IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE…WINDS SHOULD VEER
AND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE…WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SNOWBAND TO BEGIN PIVOTING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COS. OUR CSTAR LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND INLAND EXTENT PROGRAM
SUGGESTS THAT…GIVEN A FAIRLY MOIST LAYER WITHIN THE H850-H700
LAYER…A SINGLE BAND SHOULD PENETRATE WELL INLAND LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND SHOULD EXTEND INTO THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COS/ WHERE
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL AMTS COULD OCCUR. ADDITIONALLY…GIVEN THE
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ACCENTUATED BY THE EXTREME LAKE-H700 TEMP
DIFFERENTIAL…SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR SNOWBANDS COULD FORM OFF
LAKE ERIE AND EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND/OR SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT AS WELL…AS SUGGESTED
BY THE 00Z/17 NAM…PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD ONLY REACH THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS…WITH
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS VALLEY REGIONS. TUE NT/WED AM MINS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN MOST VALLEYS…WITH
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILLS
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS LATE TUE INTO TUE
NT…WITH SOME SUBZERO VALUES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR…WITH SOME WIND
GUSTS REACHING 40-45 MPH AT TIMES.

WED…AS THE INITIAL ARCTIC SURGE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL
LIFT NE OF THE REGION…A CLIPPER TYPE LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WED NT INTO THU. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS LATE WED MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WED
SHOULD REACH THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS…AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/…
WED NT-THU…ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
COULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS MUCH OF THE REGION
OUTSIDE OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY FOR WED NT AND EARLY THU. WED
NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS…AND 20S IN VALLEYS. ON THU…SOME SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS
MAY OCCUR AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BRIEFLY BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST…WITH
35-40 IN VALLEYS…AND 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-SAT…MODELS SUGGEST THAT A REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION FRI-FRI NT…WITH THE 00Z/17 ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND WOULD SUGGEST THE COLDEST AIRMASS YET TO INFILTRATE
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST/NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS…WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST…ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA.
THU NT/FRI AM MINS SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN…AND 20S FOR VALLEYS. FRI MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER/MID 30S FOR VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM
MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS…WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON SAT…HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION SHOULD BRING MORE SUNSHINE…BUT
COLD TEMPS…GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SAT NT-SUN…FAIR AND COLD FOR SAT NT…THEN INCREASING CLOUDS FOR
SUNDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY…ESP FOR AREAS W OF THE
HUDSON RIVER…AND WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S…SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/…
THE FIRST WINTRY MIX OF THE YEAR TO IMPACT ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z.

AS OF 0900Z…SNOW HAS SPREAD INTO KALB AND KGFL WITH A MIX AT KPSF
AND JUST RAIN AT KPOU.

CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR AT KPOU…BUT OFTEN IFR AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING PEAK…UNTIL THE CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN TAKES PLACE.

THERE WILL BE SOME PRETTY STRONG WIND OFF THE DECK…CLOSE TO BUT
NOT QUITE AT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR…SO FOR NOW…DID NOT PLACE THEM
IN THE TERMINALS…BUT WE MIGHT BY 12Z FOR THE MIDDAY PERIOD.

LATER…AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES DURING THE
AFTERNOON…PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY NORTH MIGHT BECOME MORE OF A
DRIZZLE…WHICH COULD ACTUALLY LEAD TO CIGS GOING BACK INTO THE IFR
RANGE. FOR NOW…WE DID THIS ONLY AT KGFL.

BY AROUND 00Z…AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE REGION…DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO ALL LEVELS…BUT A SHOWER STILL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT (VCSH).

WE MIGHT HAVE TO DEAL WITH A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT BAND OFF ERIE
LATER TOMORROW NIGHT…ESPECIALLY AT KALB. OTHERWISE…MAINLY HIGH
LEVEL MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
TODAY…5-10KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KALB (NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS SET OF TAFS). THE WIND WILL THEN TURN SW TO
WESTERLY THIS EVENING…AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS OR A LITTLE
BETTER.

OUTLOOK…
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION
TONIGHT CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA…BEGINNING AS SNOW FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD…BUT A WINTRY MIX FURTHER SOUTH.

WATER EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM WILL GENERALLY BE A HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. GIVEN OUR DRY WEATHER OF LATE…WE EXPECT
ONLY SOME IN BANK RISES…WITH ALL RIVERS REMAINING AT BELOW ACTION
STAGES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058-061-063-082>084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ032-033.
MA…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ001-025.
VT…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…HWJIV
NEAR TERM…HWJIV
SHORT TERM…KL
LONG TERM…KL
AVIATION…HWJIV
HYDROLOGY…IAA/HWJIV

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