Sunday November 16 2014

Wintry mix tonight

Last Updated:
10:00 PM Sunday
November 16, 2014

School Forecast For:
Monday November, 17th
Two Hour Delay No School Early Dismissal
20% 0% 0%

Forecast Overview
Last Updated: 10:00PM November 16th

10:00PM Sunday

Current radar is showing widespread rain and snow showers approaching our region. Current timing still looks to have the precipitation start by about 1AM.

As far as precipitation type… temperatures are currently in the upper 30s across the area. Expecting temperatures to fall to right around the freezing mark tonight. Temperatures should be cold enough for a period of light snow that possibly accumulates on grassy surfaces/cars (similar to Thursday night). After about 4AM, however, warmer air higher up in the atmosphere will result in a change over to sleet/freezing rain.

This will be a critical period. It takes very little ice accumulation to result in school impacts. However, with temperatures currently in the upper 30s, and with surface temperatures barely expected to fall below freezing, it is currently difficult to foresee frozen precipitation accumulating on roadways in the greater Kingston area. For this reason, the probabilities remain conservative at 20%. If temperatures do manage to fall a few additional degrees below freezing, then the probabilities are higher.

Any frozen precipitation should transition to all rain by 7AM.
Rain tapers off Monday evening.

Temperatures will turn significantly colder on Tuesday, and we may not even get above freezing. With the wind factored in, it will feel like it's only in the 20s at best.

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9:45PM radar:
New York State and Kingston are in the upper right corner.

The Kingstonsnows Extras tab on the side has been updated with a post discussing the differences between sleet, freezing rain, hail, snow, and rain.

Check it out!


12:45PM Sunday

A low pressure center will trek from the Gulf of Mexico, through the eastern US, and up into Canada tonight and tomorrow. This storm will spread precipitation across our area beginning after midnight tonight, and continuing though most of Monday.

Like this past Thursday's storm, temperatures for this system look to be around the boarder line for a rain/frozen precipitation event. The surface temperatures look to fall to around 30-32 degrees during the early morning hours on Monday, and this could again support some wet snowflakes, possibly accumulating on mainly grassy surfaces. The issue with this storm, however, is that the temperatures in the atmosphere support ice more than they support snow, and we could see a couple hours of freezing rain.

At the moment, any snow accumulations look to be under half an inch. Ice accumulations are more difficult to forecast, but appear to be less than a tenth of an inch— a light glaze on the surfaces that it sticks to. Because surface temperatures only look to bottom out in the 30 to 32 degree range, it is questionable how much of this will stick to roadways. For now, have gone with a 20% chance for delay, and will have an update by 10PM tonight.

Next Update by 10PM

Kingstonsnows Forecast
Last Updated: 12:45PM November 16th

Monday

Snow showers developing around 1AM.
Snow transitioning to Freezing rain around 4AM.
Rain or freezing rain through 7AM, then all rain.
Rain tapering off between 7PM and 10PM.

Up to half an inch of snow accumulation possible, on mainly grassy surfaces. A light glaze of ice possible. Up to three quarters of an inch of rainfall possible.

Morning low of 30 to 32. Afternoon high in the lower 40s.

Tuesday

Sunny, windy, and Cold.
Morning temperatures in the upper 20s to around 30.
Temperatures barely getting above freezing.
Temperatures falling into the lower 20s by the evening.

Wednesday through Friday
Chilly, but mostly sunny.
Lows in the upper 20s to mid 20s.
Highs in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Long-range school impact (probability)
The long range impact is a general outlook, and is not a specific forecast.
Day (Date) Delay Cancellation E.D. Confidence
Monday (Nov. 17) Medium Low None Medium
Tuesday (Nov. 18) None None None High
Wednesday (Nov. 19) None None None High
Thursday (Nov. 20) None None None High
Friday (Nov. 21) None None None High
Long range impact last Updated: 12:45PM November 16, 2014

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Since January 2009

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