November 16, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 170212
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
912 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA…BEGINNING AS SNOW. A CHANGEOVER TO A
WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN MONDAY MORNING. A
CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA
BY LATE MORNING. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AS IT TAPERS OFF
MONDAY EVENING. AS COLDER AIR IS USHERED INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE STORM…LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/…
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR 1 AM TO 1 PM
MONDAY FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION INCLUDING SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN AS SNOW TRANSITIONS TO RAIN MONDAY MORNING.

AT 900PM CONDS REMAIN DRY. OVERRUNNING PCPN EXTENDS FM DELMARVA
TO NJ AND LONG IS. FURTHER N VIRGA IS AS FAR N AS I-84. THIS WILL
EDGE SLOWLY N NEXT FEW HRS. TEMPS ARE 2-3 DEG ABV FCST…MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS THERE. HWVR KALB RAOB IS BLOW 0C AT 955HPA…BUT
SUFFICIENT DRY AIR EXISTS BLOW H850 TI QUICKLY COOL THE COLUMN FOR
PCPN TO BEGIN AS -SN. OTRW CURRENT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH. IT WILL HEAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AS
A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE STREAM
ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEMS MERGING TO OUR
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

THESE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER…INITIALLY
IT STARTS OUT AS SNOW. A TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED…HOWEVER
AS THIS OCCUR WE WILL GO THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN WHICH WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOCAL AREA. QPF AMOUNTS DURING THIS PHASE ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. THE CHANGEOVER TO A WINTRY MIX WILL BEGIN IN THE MID
HUDSON…SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS AND ACROSS LITCHFIELD COUNTY BY
AROUND 3 AM WITH THE MIX WORKING NORTHWARD REACHING INTERSTATE 90
AROUND BY 5 TO 6 AM…AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT BY AROUND 8 AM. A CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN WILL
OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THE CHANGEOVER TO A WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR
AFTER SUNRISE AND BY AFTERNOON MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED HOWEVER
SLEET AND SNOW MAY MIX IN AT TIMES.

AS THE STORM MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST AND MERGERS WITH GREAT LAKES
SYSTEM AND DEEPENS MONDAY NIGHT COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED BACK IN
THE REGION. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AS IT TAPERS OFF DURING
THE EVENING. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AS VERY COLD AIR…AROUND -15 DEGREES CELSIUS AT 850
MB…WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVER THE GREAT LAKES. GLERL
SHOWS AN AVERAGE LAKE-WIDE SURFACE TEMPERATURE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO
OF 47 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT/8 DEGREES CELSIUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS QUEBEC…A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US FOR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL DROP AS LOW AS -15 DEGREES C OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD DAY ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY…WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR VALLEY
AREAS…AND 20S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN
THE TEENS…WITH EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

WITH THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES…A PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOWFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR OFF LAKE ONTARIO. LOCAL CSTAR
RESEARCH WOULD SUGGEST THE BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO REACHES INTO OUR
AREA…ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OF A MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE OTHER GREAT LAKES DUE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW.
INITIALLY…THE 4KM BTV WRF SHOWS A BAND WOULD BE NORTH OF OUR AREA
EARLY ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER…IT LOOKS TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS FOR THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT…AS THE
LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS MORE OUT OF THE WEST. THE BAND MAY
WIND UP SHIFTING BACK NORTH OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. POINT TOTALS LOOK TO BE 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES…ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS OF THE DEEP WOODS NORTH OF OLD FORGE AND NORTHWEST OF
INDIAN LAKE. AS A RESULT…WE/VE ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR
THESE AREAS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY…AND NO
LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THAT AREA.

OUTSIDE OF THIS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY…THERE MAY BE A FEW ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY FORCED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING DUE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH…ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
/SUCH AS THE SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS/. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED
TO JUST A COATING OR LESS IN THESE AREAS…AS A LACK OF MOISTURE
WILL KEEP COVERAGE FAIRLY SPARSE. WITH THE BEST FORCING SHIFTING
EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY…IT SHOULD BE DRY OUTSIDE THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR THE
WHOLE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/…
THE REGION WILL BE IN A LITTLE BIT OF LULL FOR WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY…AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA…AND THE NEXT ONE WILL BE UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
FAST APPROACHING. AS A RESULT…BROAD SW FLOW WILL OVER THE
AREA…ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES…ALTHOUGH
IT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. MIN TEMPS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S…AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY LOOK TO REACH THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS…WITH UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
OVER THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS. MOST AREAS LOOK TO BE DRY…ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS…AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM…BUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ITS PASSING…ESP FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THURS NIGHT…AND
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GO BACK TO BEING QUITE CHILLY…WITH MID 20S TO
MID 30S…AS ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. ALONG WITH THIS AIR MASS WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY
SKY…AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE WITH
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO END THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY AT
SOME POINT ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL…WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S…AND MINS SAT
NIGHT IN THE 20S.

SOME MODERATION WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY…AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE
AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE
RISING AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER…THIS ONE
WILL BE A MILDER FEATURE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN…AND WILL BE TRACKING
WELL WEST OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIP QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN FOR SOME POINT ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR SUNDAY…WITH
READINGS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/…
LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL LIFT NE ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE MID ATLC STATES BY MORNING…THEN MOVE
NORTH TO THE OTTAWA VALLEY BY MON EVNG. CLOUDS WILL INCR…THICKEN
AND LOWER ACROSS RGN THIS EVNG…AND WINTERY PCPN WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA TONIGHT.

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS TIL 06UTC WITH MAINLY AOA OVC050.
CONDS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO IFR CIG..AND VSBY IN -SN BR AFT
04UTC ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VLY (POU)..AND REGION WIDE 06-08UTC.

AFT 06UTC WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON WITH CIGS
BLO OVC010. PCPN WILL BEGIN AS SNOW…CHANGE TO FZRAPL MIX DURING
THE MORNING FM SOUTH TO N…AND TO RAIN REGION WIDE BY LATE
MORNING. WIDESPREAD VSBY BLO 3SM WILL BE THE CASE…WITH IFR CIGS
BLOW OVC010.

LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL BCM EAST OVERNIGHT AND VRBL MONDAY UNDER
10KTS.

OUTLOOK…
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHSN…RA.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA…BEGINNING AS SNOW. A
CHANGEOVER TO A WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN MONDAY
MORNING. A CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL AREA BY LATE MORNING. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AS IT
TAPERS OFF MONDAY EVENING. TOTAL QPF IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
AROUND A HALF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO AROUND AN INCH
ACROSS LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033.
MA…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
MAZ001-025.
VT…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…IAA
NEAR TERM…IAA/SNYDER
SHORT TERM…FRUGIS
LONG TERM…FRUGIS
AVIATION…SNYDER
HYDROLOGY…IAA

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