November 13, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 131748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1248 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO OUR SOUTH EARLY TODAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE…OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES…WILL MOVE EAST AND
LIKELY BRING THE SEASONS FIRST SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF OUR REGION.
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT. THEN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
TAKE HOLD FRIDAY AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE SNOW…LAKE ENHANCED…EXTENDING INTO
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE RELATIVELY
SHORT LIVED AS THE FLOW AS A DISTURBANCE/SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL DISRUPT THE FLOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY
WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW WELL THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES…DEWPOINTS
AND WINDS. HIGHS 5 TO BOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/…
TONIGHT..IT LOOKS AS IF THE BEST ASCENT AND MOISTURE WILL BE JUST
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WHERE WE HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP TO LIKELY DURING THE EVENING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT…WITH
HIGH CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

THIS VORTICITY TAIL WILL CATCH UP TO A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE (AREA
WITH GREAT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT) OFFSHORE HELPING TO FORM AN OCEAN
STORM THAT WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF CAPE COD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.

WE NOW FEEL THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MANY AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE
BELTS TO PICK UP THEIR FIRST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF THE YEAR. MOST OF
THESE SHOULD BE LIGHT…GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS IN THE
VALLEYS…BUT SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE LITCHFIELD
HILLS/BERKSHIRES AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN GREENS COULD SEE LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 1-4 INCHES. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH SNOW OR CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES BUT WILL MAKE MENTION OF IT IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BY FRIDAY…THE AFOREMENTIONED OCEAN STORM WILL BE ON ITS WAY
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TAKING ALL OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WITH IT. THIS
STORM REINFORCING A LARGE POOL OF ARCTIC AIR AND DRIVE INTO OUR
REGION. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP DOWN TO OR LITTLE BELOW -10C.
A BREEZE WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY TAKE AIM MORE DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN
CATSKILLS ON FRIDAY. IT IS REMOTELY POSSIBLE THAT PLUMES COULD
BRIEFLY BRUSH INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS WELL EAST INTO THE
BERKSHIRES. OVERALL…ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THESE SNOW BANDS
WILL GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR TWO IN MOST CASES.

THIS BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE OVER OUR REGION…WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHERN CATSKILLS. A
BREEZE WILL CONTINUE ADDING TO THE CHILL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 40-45 IN MOST VALLEY AREAS TODAY…BUT
ONLY IN THE 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN…EVEN BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE BACK INTO
THE 20S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS…UPPER
20S TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
FEATURE SOME OF THE COLDEST READINGS YET…WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE
TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
VERMONT…WITH EVERYONE ELSE GENERALLY 20-25. SATURDAY…ONLY A FEW
PLACES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY LOOK TO CRACK 40…WHILE HIGHS WILL
BE ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD TO ABOUT
GLENS FALLS…EVEN COLDER ELSEWHERE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS COMPLEX TO SAY THE LEAST AS THERE ARE
SOME MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
FA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RIDES NORTH OF FA
INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT…A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE
WORKING THEIR WAY TOWARDS OUR REGION WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTS
ADVANCING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING
THROUGH THE DELMARVA REGION. THE GFS HOLDS OFF THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING WITH THE 12Z
ECMWF LINGERING THE PRECIPITATION LONGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THEIR TRACKS WITH REGARDS TO THE NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AFTER THIS
TIME FRAME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED WITH THE GFS FASTER AND SLIGHTLY TO
THE RIGHT OF THE ECMWF TRACK WHICH WOULD FAVOR A COLDER SOLUTION
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS…THE
ECMWF WITH ITS MORE WESTWARD SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR MORE IN THE WAY OF
RAIN. FOR NOW WILL COMPROMISE AND CALL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS A
TRACK 50 MILES OR SO IN EITHER DIRECTION WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE
IN PCPN TYPE. EXPECT HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY…GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS BULK
OF FA EXCEPT FOR THOSE ZONES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST WITH
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
A LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL
TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD…BECOMING A MAIN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL SOUTH OF CAPE COD
MASSACHUSETTS. IT IS EXPECTED TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW
SHOWERS AT KPSF AND KPOU TONIGHT…WITH ENOUGH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
TO BECOME A MENACE ON THE RUNWAYS. FURTHER NORTH…KALB AND KGFL
WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST FRINGE…WITH ONLY CHC -SHSN EXPECTED. IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND 07Z AT KPSF AND KPOU.

WINDS WILL NOT BE A MAJOR FACTOR UNTIL THE SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE
OUT. EVEN THEN…NORTHWESTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SHOULD STAY UNDER 15 KNOTS. ALOFT…THEY WILL REMAINDER UNDER 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK…

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA…SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA…SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA…SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA…SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

OUTLOOK…
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA…SHSN.
FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA…SHSN.
SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA…SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AT
THE THREAT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY…MOST OF WHICH
COULD ACTUALLY FALL AS SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…HWJIV
NEAR TERM…IAA/HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM…IAA/HWJIV
LONG TERM…11
AVIATION…ELH
HYDROLOGY…HWJIV

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