Wednesday March 19 2014

Rain tonight

Last Updated:
10:00PM Wednesday
March 19, 2014
School Forecast For:
Thursday March 20th

Two Hour Delay No School Early Dismissal
10% 0% 0%

Brief Overview
Last Updated: 10:00PM March 19th

10:00PM Wednesday

~ Quick weather lesson ~
In the world of weather there are two main ways that freezing rain can form:

A) when there is warmer air in the middle of the atmosphere, and a strong layer of cold air right at ground-level … in this case, snowflakes melt to rain as they fall from the upper atmosphere. The rain then freezes on contact with the ground.

B) when there is semi-cold air throughout the atmosphere and when rain falls at a moderate-heavy rate. In this second case, the snowflakes mostly melt to rain as they fall, but due to the greater intensity there is a cooling-effect which allows some of the precipitation to stay as ice. However, because the overall temperature is usually at or just above freezing, and it is the temporary cooling-effect that is responsible for the freezing rain, this second method often results in less impact.

This second method is what we have been seeing tonight.

Steady rain this evening has contained pockets of heavier rain, the result is that we have had freezing rain occasionally mixing in. We've also had a few rumbles of distant thunder.

Expect this to continue. Rain should taper off between 1AM and 5AM. Temperatures should hold at or just above freezing, so not anticipating black ice to be a significant factor tonight. Rondout, Ellenville, and Onteora school districts may see a bit more in the way of icing simply due to being at higher elevations.

3:15PM Wednesday

Tonight
Rain likely, mainly before 8AM.
Temperatures should only bottom out right around the freezing mark, so ice shouldn't be a major factor, but we'll have to watch how the evening unfolds.

Thursday and Friday
No significant weather.

Saturday and Sunday
No significant weather.
Slight chance of a rain or snow shower on Saturday.

Temperatures over the next couple of days look to remain about the same, with no notable warm or cold spells coming up.

Spring begins at 12:57PM tomorrow.
So, does this mean we're totally done with the snow?
Right now there doesn't appear to be any notable snow threat in the coming week, however, temperatures will continue to dip below freezing at night for at least the next two or three weeks. I wouldn't completely rule out a light late season snow-snap just yet … I'd give it 30% chance.

I'll monitor temperature trends this evening, and have a 10PM update if needed.

-Ethan

Kingstonsnows Extended Forecast
Last Updated: 12:45PM March 10th
Not a current forecast

Forecast at a glance
- AM °F
PM °F
Weather Timing Confidence
Tuesday 30 - 35 40 - 45 Mostly Cloudy - High
Wednesday
30 - 35 36 - 41 Snow/Rain;
Snow/Sleet After 5AM;
After 8PM Medium
Thursday 10 - 15 16 - 21 Snow Showers Before 7AM High
Friday 5 - 15 25 - 35 Clear - Medium
Saturday 15 - 25 35 - 45 Snow Showers? - Medium
Sunday 15 - 25
25 - 35 Mostly Cloudy - Medium
Monday 5 - 15 15 - 25
Mostly Cloudy - Low

Tuesday

Mostly Cloudy.
Slightly warmer with temperatures in the 40s.

Wednesday and Thursday

A mix of sleet and snow early Wednesday morning,
transitioning to rain/mix after 8AM. Rain transitioning to sleet or snow during the evening. Snow tapering off Wednesday night before 7AM Thursday.

Temperatures reaching the mid to upper 30s Wednesday,
then falling into the teens and 20s.

Friday through Monday

No significant weather anticipated.
Some snow showers possible on Saturday.
Temperatures generally reaching the 20s and 30s.
Colder conditions possible on Monday.

Long-range school impact (probability)
The long range impact is a general outlook, and is not a specific forecast.
Day (Date) Delay Cancellation E.D. Confidence
Monday (17) None None None Low
Tuesday (11) None None None High
Wednesday (12) Low None None High
Thursday (13) Medium Low None Medium
Friday (14) None None None High
Long range impact last Updated: 3:00PM March 11, 2014

Kingstonsnows ♦ Kingston, NY

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