March 19, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 191754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA TONIGHT…IT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO OUR REGION
INCLUDING SNOW…RAIN AND SOME SLEET INTO EARLY THURSDAY…WITH
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/…
AS OF 1150 AM…LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD ALL OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA. SOME VERY WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA…BUT NO REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION AT THE
GROUND YET. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO THE MID 30S HERE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY WITH UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST
RUC SHOWS STEADIER PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AROUND 7 PM THIS
EVENING…ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

WE ARE CONTEMPLATING EXPANDING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF
4+ INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. WE
WILL MAKE A DECISION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AFTER ALL THE 12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE ARRIVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/…
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN THIS EVENING…AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES ALONG WITH
A SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. LOW LEVEL
JET OF 40-50 KT AT 850MB WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA…WHICH IS +2 TO +4
STDEV. WILL MENTION CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA…ALTHOUGH THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A VARIANCE IN QPF DUE TO
ENHANCED UPSLOPE IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND A WEAK SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR NYC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND POTENTIALLY
ENHANCING QPF OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. GENERALLY EXPECTING
0.25-0.50…WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN DACKS.

THERMAL PROFILES FOR PRECIP TYPE BORDERLINE FOR RAIN/SNOW/SLEET IN
MANY AREAS…MAKING FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. ONE AREA OF HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE IS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS…WHERE MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED. SOME SLEET COULD MIX IN
AS THE WARM NOSE ALOFT POSSIBLY NEARS +1C…HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE
TIME ASCENT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIP ALL SNOW. WE
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTY…WHERE 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THERE. STILL
FORECASTING 4-8 INCHES FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ADVISORY THERE.

OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA…THE REST OF THE SOUTHEAST
ADIRONDACKS…LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT…EXPECTING 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW AS MORE SLEET SHOULD MIX IN.
ALSO EXPECTING 1-3 INCHES FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES
SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN LITCHFIELD HILLS…WHERE AGAIN SLEET IS
EXPECTED TO MIX IN. WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
INFLUENCE…THINKING THAT AREAS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH IF ANY SNOW/SLEET
AND WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW/SLEET THIS EVENING…WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
EXPECTED TO WARM RATHER UNIFORMLY THEREAFTER.

THE SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BY MID THURSDAY
MORNING…WITH PRECIP ENDING RATHER QUICKLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHORT LULL IN PRECIP LATE THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY…HOWEVER A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOISTEN THE ENVIRONMENT WITH WESTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS/BERKSHIRES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY.

IN THE VALLEYS…MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY. RELATIVELY DECENT MIXING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED…HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDINESS AROUND. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY…WHERE TEMPS COULD APPROACH 50. COOLER LOWER
TO MID 40S EXPECTED IN FARTHER NORTH VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH 30S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY…BUT IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE HIGH MOVES IN LATER IN THE DAY. THERE
SHOULD BE AT LEAST MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE…WHICH SHOULD HELP
BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN VALLEYS DESPITE COLD
ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT WEAKER AND HAS A TRACK FARTHER TO THE
NORTH THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD CLOSER TO
THE GFS TRACK AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY. A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUPPORT THE ECMWF TRACK ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEEP
LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME
SEASONABLY WARM ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. THIS LEADS TO SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST WITH THE PRECIPITATION ENDING BY
EVENING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT…SO HAVE KEPT MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE HEELS OF THE SYSTEM…SO COLDER
AIR WILL BE USHERED BACK INTO THE REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND
AND START THE NEW WORK WEEK. A COLD/ARCTIC CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD
DOWN INTO THE CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THIS TIME…IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS WITH BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO BELOW ZERO
ONCE AGAIN IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OUTSIDE THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY…HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
SHOULD NOT GO ABOVE FREEZING…PLUS THE WINDS SHOULD BE BRISK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…
CLOUDS COVER THE AREA AND RADAR RETURNS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT THE TAF SITES HAVE NOT REPORTED
PRECIPITATION…SO LITTLE OF THESE EARLY RETURNS REACHING THE
GROUND. MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

INITIALLY EARLY IN THE EVENING A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH
MAINLY RAIN AT KPOU AND KALB. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN AT KPOU. HOWEVER AT KALB AND KPSF SOME SNOW AND SLEET MAY MIX
IN DURING THE EVENING. AT KGFL…MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER OVERNIGHT.

WIND WILL BE SOUTHEAST AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 TO 20 KTS.
THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. A WIND SHIFT TO THE
WEST IS EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING…WITH WINDS INCREASING AND
BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK…
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
FRI NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY…RA…SN.
SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA…SHSN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED…AS MOST OF THE
AREA HAS SNOW COVER AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
TODAY…AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA…ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO OUR REGION INCLUDING
SNOW…RAIN AND SOME SLEET. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY…WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TODAY. THEN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. PRECIP TYPE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF ALBANY…WITH POSSIBLE SLEET AND/OR
RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH THROUGH THURSDAY…WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
PROBLEMS…WITH JUST SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT…WITH THE REST OF THE AREA
DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY WITH MORE DRY WEATHER. A
FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW TO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY…AGAIN WITH MAINLY LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…SND/JPV
NEAR TERM…SND
SHORT TERM…JPV
LONG TERM…IAA
AVIATION…SND
FIRE WEATHER…JPV
HYDROLOGY…JPV

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