March 17, 2014 Forecast Discussion

— Highlight Changed Discussion —

000
FXUS61 KALY 172340
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
740 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
TOMORROW…YIELDING COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO OUR REGION DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/…
AS OF 655 PM EDT…HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. VERY COLD AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. THE SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW THIN CIRRUS AROUND. H850 TEMPS REMAIN
BETWEEN -8C AND -14C. THE WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM…SO EXPECT
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL. SFC DEWPTS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO IN THE DRY AIR MASS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO. THE
SKIES GRIDS AND HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT WERE RETOOLED AND
RETRENDED BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/…
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST OF FA ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL
FINALLY START TO HEAD HIGHER AS WELL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING A WARM FRONT TOWARDS OUR
REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED THREAT OF
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY…MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
HAVING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
GENERALLY HAVE LIKELY POPS IN MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND QPF
AMOUNTS PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH. MUCH OF THIS PCPN WILL FALL AS
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. SINCE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL INCLUDE MENTION IN
THE HWO. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME WIND GUSTS UP AROUND 35 MPH FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS OUR REGION
AND V ANOMALIES ARE PRESENT. INSTABILITY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY…THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH
HIGHS ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER
50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/…
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD MARKED BY A CHANGE FROM UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WRAPAROUND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WIND DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MID-WEEK STORM
DEPARTS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM…STRENGTHENING OUT OF THE NATION/S
MID-SECTION…AFFECTS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY SNOW TO START…
FRIDAY NIGHT…AND A LIKELY QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK MOVER…LIFTING UP FROM PENNSYLVANIA
AND NEW YORK TO THE MARITIMES COAST. COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
ONCE MORE…TO DOMINATE THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY…THE 20S AND 30S ON SUNDAY…AND FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 30S ON MONDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES TO
AROUND 30 THURSDAY NIGHT…WITH THESE LOW READINGS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY COLDER EACH NIGHT…REACHING DOWN INTO THE AROUND ZERO
TO UPPER TEENS RANGE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE UPPER 40S AND UPPER 20S…

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS
FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A FEW THIN CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. SOME SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN NORTH OF KPOU IN
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW…BUT OVERALL THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE ANTICYCLONE WILL YIELD MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS.

THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST WINDS 4-7 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM BY
MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NE TO SE AT
5 KTS OR LESS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK…
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA…SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA…SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA…SN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY…YIELDING
COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO OUR REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW BUT BE AROUND
NORMAL WEDNESDAY…FURTHER LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP.
SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER A HALF
AN INCH THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS
SNOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…11/WASULA
NEAR TERM…11/WASULA
SHORT TERM…11
LONG TERM…ELH
AVIATION…WASULA
FIRE WEATHER…11
HYDROLOGY…11

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