March 13, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 132110
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
510 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY BUT FRIGID NIGHT
TONIGHT. MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY…BEFORE YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/…
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM EDT FOR
BLOWING SNOW FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT…

AS OF 5 PM EDT…SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY FOR MOST
AREAS NEAR AND W OF THE HUDSON RIVER…WITH CLOUDS AND SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES PERSISTING ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MTNS. BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE…WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION…SE CATSKILLS…BERKSHIRES…AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. THIS
STILL HAS ALLOWED FOR AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO PERSIST…THEREFORE
WILL KEEP THE WSW THROUGH 6 PM EDT AND THRU THE MID PORTION OF THE
EVENING COMMUTE.

FOR TONIGHT…IT APPEARS THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT…BEFORE
RAPIDLY DECREASING THEREAFTER AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS EAST.
SO…DESPITE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES…IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO RESPOND AND ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY.
EVENTUALLY…AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN…TEMPS SHOULD FALL OFF
MORE RAPIDLY. HOWEVER…SOME PATCHES OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL STREAM INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

SO…FOR MIN TEMPS…GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF THE COLDER MAV
MOS…AND WARMER MET MOS…SIDING A BIT CLOSER TO THE COLDER MOS.
HOWEVER…SHOULD WINDS DECREASE SOONER THAN EXPECTED…TEMPS COULD
DROP MUCH LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST GIVEN THE COLD DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE…AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/…
FRIDAY…HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION…AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE…WITH HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM W TO E…ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY…WHERE MINOR ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE…OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND LAKE GEORGE REGION
DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS…EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. AS FOR
TEMPS…STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
REACH THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON…AND UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT
WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE BREEZY BY LATE AFTERNOON…ESP IN
NORTH/SOUTH VALLES AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
CHANNELED…ALLOWING FOR SOME GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT…A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURGE OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT…AND ALSO SOME DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY FRI NT…BEFORE
POSSIBLY EXPANDING S AND E INTO AT LEAST HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SURROUNDING THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTH. SOME
VERY LIGHT PRECIP COULD FALL IN SOME VALLEY AREAS LATER IN THE
EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES WILL SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS…BUT WITH A WARM LAYER ADVECTING INTO THE REGION BETWEEN
925-850 MB…THERMAL PROFILES WOULD ACTUALLY SUPPORT SOME LIQUID
HYDROMETEORS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. UNFORTUNATELY…BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO
NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN SOME VALLEY AREAS…SO
SOME SPRINKLES OF FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE…ALONG WITH PERHAPS
SOME SLEET. AGAIN…ANY OF THIS PRECIP WOULD BE VERY LIGHT…WITH
MAINLY TRACE AMTS EXPECTED…BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
ICY SPOTS DEVELOPING SHOULD THE SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN DEVELOP.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MOST
AREAS…EXCEPT FOR 25-30 FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS…WITH TEMPS LIKELY REACHING MINS IN THE
EVENING…THEN RISING LATER AT NIGHT.

SAT-SUN…A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SAT
MORNING/EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. DESPITE STRONG COLD ADVECTION…A
PERIOD OF DEEP MIXING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO SPIKE JUST AHEAD OF…OR
WITH THE FROPA. HAVE THEREFORE WENT A BIT ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE IN
MOST VALLEY AREAS…WITH 45-50 EXPECTED…EXCEPT 50-55 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPING WILL FURTHER
ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL WARMING POTENTIAL. HIGHER ELEVATIONS…ESP
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS…WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE 30S TO AROUND
40…WITH FALLING TEMPS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
LIKELY BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH AND BEHIND THE
FROPA…WITH SOME GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. A FEW SPINKLES IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS…AND FLURRIES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS…WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. OTHERWISE…MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
FOR SAT NT-SUN…OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME CLOUDS AND WIND MAY LIMIT
HOW LOW TEMPS REACH LATE SAT NT/SUN AM…WITH MINS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN VALLEYS…AND
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. FOR SUN…EXPECT A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE IN MOST AREAS
BEFORE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN
THE DAY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S IN
VALLEYS…AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/…
WE WILL EXPERIENCE THE END OF A SEESAW PATTERN STARTING OFF WITH
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES…BUT ENDING ON A POSITIVE NOTE. THE
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE
MID-APPALACHIAN REGION…BUT HAVING A TOUGH TIME HOLDING ITS OWN
AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM
JAMES BAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER…BRINGING SUNSHINE AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES DURING MID-WEEK…BUT WITH A TRANSITION TO AN INCLEMENT
PATTERN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEATHER
SYSTEM FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AN EXPECTED WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BRING OUR MILDEST WEATHER OF THE EXTENDED ON
THURSDAY…DURING WHICH TIME A COLD FRONT…THOUGH NOTHING WITH THE
POTENCY OF RECENT WEEKS…WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT THE MID TEENS IN
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS…TO THE MID 30S THROUGH THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. MONDAY WILL BE COLDEST…WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND THE 20S. BY THURSDAY…TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE MODERATED
TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS…TO THE MID
AND UPPER TEENS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY…WILL HAVE MODERATED BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LOWS FROM THE LOWER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON WITH ALL TAF
SITES VFR BY 23Z. RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGINNING TO RISE THIS EVENING.
THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SKC OVERNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
OVERALL CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
LATE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING. HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN VERY TIGHT
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT 6-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK…

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA…SHSN…FZRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS SAW SOME RISES DUE TO THE
RECENT PRECIPITATION…BUT NONE CAME CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE…AND
THERE WAS LITTLE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT. RIVERS SHOULD SOON
CREST IF THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY…AND WILL SLOWLY RECEDE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

COLD WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TODAY INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON
SATURDAY WITH 40S FOR MOST AREAS…BUT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING…ANY SNOW MELT SHOULD BE SLOW AND NOT
CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC ISSUES. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ONCE
AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-
033-038>043-047>054-058>061-082>084.
MA…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…KL/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM…KL
SHORT TERM…KL
LONG TERM…ELH
AVIATION…11
HYDROLOGY…KL/FRUGIS

Unless otherwise stated, the content of this page is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 License