March 12, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 121802
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
142 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
A STRENGTHENING WINTER STORM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE ADIRONDACKS
WITH A WINTRY MIX AND RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. ALL
AREAS WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR TONIGHT AS THE STORM PASSES OFF
THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW
MORNING WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS…

AS OF 130 PM EDT…LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST SOUTHEAST OF
PITTSBURGH…TRACKING ENE NEAR THE PA TURNPIKE. THIS LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK QUICKLY AND BE BE NEAR NYC LATER THIS EVENING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE AT THE LOW LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME…A
WARM NOSE IS LIKELY WORKING IN THE MID LEVELS FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
EASTWARD. FREEZING RAIN NOW BEING REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MOHAWK. THE TEMPERATURE AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS JUST
SLIPPED FREEZING…SO RAIN WAS TURNING TO FREEZING RAIN.

FURTHER NORTH…IT WAS ALL SNOW FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO
LAKE GEORGE AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN VERMONT.

SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY…STILL LIQUID RAIN WAS FALLING WITH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S…WITH SOME OF WARMEST
READINGS ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND
BERKSHIRES…THANKS TO A DOWNSLOPING MORE EASTERLY WIND.

WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN RIGHT IN THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT…EVENTUALLY
BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUED TO BLEEDS SOUTH VIA
AN INCREASING AND GUSTY NORTH WIND.

THIS COULD LEAD TO A SMALL BUILD OF ICE ON TREES AND
POWERLINES…UP TO TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE. SLEET WILL FOLLOW
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON…MIXING WITH SNOW BY EVENING.

WHILE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE IS GENERALLY NOT ENOUGH ICE TO
PRODUCE POWER OUTAGES…WE ARE PROJECTED WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR
GREATER LATER ON…WHICH COULD RESULT IS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER
OUTAGES BY LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE MOHAWK AND CAPITAL REGION AS
WELL AS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

FURTHER SOUTH…RAIN WILL STAY ALL LIQUID THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON…GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BY
DARK.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON…TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
FALL…WITH THE FREEZING MARK PROBABLY GETTING TO POUGHKEEPSIE BY
DARK.

WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS…ESP OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AND IN AREAS THAT CHANNEL FLOW…SUCH AS THE
HUDSON VALLEY.

THE EVENING COMMUTE LOOKS TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY THIS
SYSTEM…AS FALLING TEMPS/CHANGING PRECIP TYPES WILL MAKE FOR
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/…
THIS STORM WILL BE HAVING IT/S BIGGEST IMPACT ON OUR REGION DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH ACROSS NJ
AND THE NYC AREA. THE STRENGTHENING STORM WILL DEEPEN TO AROUND
980 HPA. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE TO COOL
THE COLUMN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. MIXED PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW
IN THE CAPITAL REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z…AND WITH A TRANSITION
FURTHER SOUTH GOING TO MIXED PRECIP AND EVENTUALLY SNOW BY AROUND
06Z. PRECIP WILL BE HEAVY FOR THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT…AND SNOW /FALLING AT AROUND ONE INCH
PER HOUR AT TIMES/ WILL QUICKLY ACCUMULATE AS TEMPS RAPIDLY DROP.
THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE A RAPID FREEZE UP OF ANY WET SURFACES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA…AND TRAVEL LOOKS TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED.

BY MIDNIGHT…TEMPS LOOK TO HAVE FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS…TEENS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CAPITAL REGION…AND
LOWER TO MID 20S FOR NEARLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT UPPER 20S TO MID
30S IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS
IT MOVES FROM NEAR LONG ISLAND TO JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS…BUT WILL BECOME MUCH LIGHTER AND START TO TAPER OFF
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. STRONG WINDS WILL BE CONTINUING…ALLOWING FOR
SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL…WITH SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS EVERYWHERE BY ABOUT DAYBREAK. A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS…AS 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO
AROUND -20 TO -24 DEGREES C. WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND COLD
TEMPS…WIND CHILL VALUES MAY REACH -15 TO -25 DEGREES F ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE HWO STATEMENT…AS WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS…AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
FOR FAR NORTHERN AREAS…WILL OCCUR ON TOMORROW MORNING.
OTHERWISE…THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE
DONE…ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BLUSTERY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA WITH A FEW LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WON/T RISE MUCH…WITH TEENS TO LOW 20S
OVER THE AREA.

ONCE ITS ALL DONE ON THURSDAY…ONE TO TWO FEET OF SNOW WILL HAVE
FALLEN ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS…INCLUDING THE LAKE GEORGE AND
GLENS FALLS AREA. THE MOHAWK VALLEY…SARATOGA REGION…AND SRN VT
WILL SEE 8 TO 16 INCHES OF SNOW AS WELL…WITH A FEW HIGHER
TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS OF VT. ELSEWHERE…SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE VARIABLE…WITH
JUST AN INCH IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT…TO AS MUCH AS
4-8 INCHES IN THE CAPITAL REGION/BERKSHIRES…AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BIGGEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
RANGING FROM ZERO TO -5 OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO ZERO TO 10
ELSEWHERE. WITH STRONG WINDS CONTINUING…WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
REMAIN COLD…ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ADDITIONAL
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS
WELL. SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR OUT WITH CLOUDS FINALLY
DECREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY…AND TEMPS LOOK TO
MODERATE FROM THE VERY COLD LEVELS OF THURS/THURS NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY AFFECT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS DUE TO A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
OTHERWISE…THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/…
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE REGION
SHOULD BE UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH FOR THE PERIOD WHICH MEANS MORE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THE SYSTEM`S SURFACE LOW WILL
PASS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC WITH ITS ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES
MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. WILL HAVE A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A DEPARTING RIDGE AND
THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS MEANS SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER IN
THE WAKE OF THIS CLIPPER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AND
THEN THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEAST. BY
12Z/MONDAY 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO -15 TO -20
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL BE A COLD SAINT PATRICK`S DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO BE AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A STORM SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THEN HEAD OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW WHILE
THE OPERATIONAL GFS DOES NOT. HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS SUPPORTED BY SOME
OF THE GFSENSEMBLE MEMBERS. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER AND KEEP ANY IMPACT FROM THIS STORM TO OUR SOUTH
AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION (PMDEPD) ISSUED BY THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO
OUR SOUTH. THE LOW WILL PASS OVER THE LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING THEN HEAD NORTHEASTWARD UP THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFIC DETAILS FOR THE TERMINALS…

AT KGFL…LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT…AS PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSIST. SOME SLEET
COULD MIX IN AT TIMES BETWEEN 22Z/WED-02Z/THU. THE SNOW SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER 08Z/THU…AND TAPER TO SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AFTER 11Z/THU. OCCASIONAL BLOWING SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z/THU. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON…THEN TREND INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER TO 20-30 KT
BY THU AM.

AT KALB…MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT. TEMPS HAVE RECENTLY DROPPED BELOW FREEZING…ALLOWING
FREEZING RAIN TO COMMENCE. THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH SLEET
BY 20Z…AND SNOW BETWEEN 22Z-24Z/WED. THEREAFTER…EXPECT MAINLY
SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST 05Z-08Z/THU. THE SNOW COULD BE OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE TO HVY IN INTENSITY. SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS
AFTER 12Z/THU. OCCASIONAL BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
03Z/THU…THROUGH 18Z/THU. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVE…THEN TREND INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KT LATER TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY THU.

AT KPOU…MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME IFR/LIFR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS…ESP FOR CIGS. MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. P-TYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN THROUGH 22Z/WED…BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A SLEET/RAIN MIX…AND THEN FREEZING RAIN/SLEET BY
01Z/THU. THIS MIX SHOULD THEN CHANGE TO MAINLY SNOW BETWEEN
04Z-06Z/THU…BEFORE TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING…THEN TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
15-30 KT LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY THU.

AT KPSF…MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD TRANSITION TO IFR/LIFR FROM
20Z/WED…THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/THU. RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH SLEET AFTER
20Z…AND THEN SHOULD BECOME A MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN
22Z/WED-01Z/THU. THE PRECIP SHOULD THEN MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW AFTER 01Z/THU…WITH PERIODS OF SNOW PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST 14Z/THU. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING. SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 14Z/THU.
OCCASIONAL BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 04Z/THU…THROUGH
18Z/THU. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON…THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KT LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THU.

OUTLOOK…
THU NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA…SHSN.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA…SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

$$

.HYDROLOGY…
A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY INTO
TOMORROW…WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION.

TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL BE AROUND AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS…ALL OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW. FURTHER SOUTH…THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS MIXED RAIN…SNOW…SLEET…AND
FREEZING RAIN. FAR SOUTHERN AREAS /SUCH AS IN NW CT AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/ WILL SEE MAINLY RAIN FROM THE EVENT.

ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS…MOST OF THE LIQUID
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE EXISTING SNOW PACK.
STILL…SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS MAY OCCUR AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION. ALSO…THERE MIGHT BE SOME PONDING OF WATER
ON SOME ROADS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE…AS WELL AS URBAN AREAS
AND PLACES WHERE SNOW PILES AND ICE BLOCK DRAINAGE.

ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS…SUCH AS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY…SOUTHERN TACONICS…SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES…AND NW
CT…MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR
FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE…LOW LYING…AND URBAN
AREAS…ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE EXISTING SNOW AND ICE BLOCKS
DRAINAGE…ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT IN BANK RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

AT THIS POINT…NO RIVER POINTS ARE FORECASTED BY THE NERFC TO
REACH FLOOD STAGE. ALSO…IT DOESN/T APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING LONG ENOUGH FOR ICE BREAKUP ALONG MOST
LARGER RIVERS…AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY DROP BELOW FREEZING
BY TONIGHT. HOWEVER…AN ISOLATED ICE JAM ON A SMALLER STREAM OR
CREEK CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THIS COLD WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ABOVE
FREEZING ON SATURDAY WITH 40S FOR MOST AREAS…BUT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING…ANY SNOW MELT SHOULD BE SLOW AND NOT
CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC ISSUES. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ONCE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY INTO
TOMORROW…WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION.

TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL BE AROUND AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS…ALL OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW. FURTHER SOUTH…THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS MIXED RAIN…SNOW…SLEET…AND
FREEZING RAIN. FAR SOUTHERN AREAS /SUCH AS IN NW CT AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/ WILL SEE MAINLY RAIN FROM THE EVENT.

ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS…MOST OF THE LIQUID
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE EXISTING SNOW PACK.
STILL…SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS MAY OCCUR AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION. ALSO…THERE MIGHT BE SOME PONDING OF WATER
ON SOME ROADS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE…AS WELL AS URBAN AREAS
AND PLACES WHERE SNOW PILES AND ICE BLOCK DRAINAGE.

ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS…SUCH AS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY…SOUTHERN TACONICS…SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES…AND NW
CT…MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR
FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE…LOW LYING…AND URBAN
AREAS…ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE EXISTING SNOW AND ICE BLOCKS
DRAINAGE…ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT IN BANK RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

AT THIS POINT…NO RIVER POINTS ARE FORECASTED BY THE NERFC TO
REACH FLOOD STAGE. ALSO…IT DOESN/T APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING LONG ENOUGH FOR ICE BREAKUP ALONG MOST
LARGER RIVERS…AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY DROP BELOW FREEZING
BY TONIGHT. HOWEVER…AN ISOLATED ICE JAM ON A SMALLER STREAM OR
CREEK CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THIS COLD WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ABOVE
FREEZING ON SATURDAY WITH 40S FOR MOST AREAS…BUT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING…ANY SNOW MELT SHOULD BE SLOW AND NOT
CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC ISSUES. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ONCE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ049-
050-052-053-058-063.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR NYZ054-059>061-064>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047-048-051-082>084.
MA…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…FRUGIS
NEAR TERM…FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM…FRUGIS
LONG TERM…IAA
AVIATION…KL
HYDROLOGY…FRUGIS

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