March 5, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 052152
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
449 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
HIGH WILL SLIP EAST ON FRIDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS HIGH WILL BRING A MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/…
AS OF 450 PM EST…RADARS INDICATED A FLARE-UP OF SNOW
SHOWERS…HEADING TOWARD THE CAPITAL DISTRICT…YES JUST IN TIME FOR
THE EVENING DRIVE. THESE ARE CELLULAR AND SHOULD NOT LAST LONG BUT
FELT COMPELLED TO UPDATE. DBZ VALUES APPROACH 30 IN THESE…NOT
QUITE ENOUGH TO ISSUE TO A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SNOW
SQUALLS BUT WILL MONITOR. BELIEVE THESE COULD PRODUCE VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS TO ABOUT TWO MILES…MAYBE A COATING AT MOST. THESE
SHOULD END

WEBCAMS HAVE INDICATED QUICK HITTING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS.

AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH…THE SUN SETS AND HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHWARD…ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SHUT DOWN AS
SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. THE SKY WILL CLEAR AND THE STAGE WILL BE SET
FOR YET ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT…MUCH COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT.

A NORTH WIND WILL BE 5-15 MPH THIS EVENING DRIVING IN ADDITIONAL
ARCTIC AIR. THIS WIND WILL DROP UNDER 5 MPH OVERNIGHT SO RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL TAKE OVER. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD…ZERO TO 15 BELOW NORTH OF ALBANY AS WELL AS
ELEVATED TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/…
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE ON
THURSDAY. AFTER A FRIGID START…WALL TO WALL SUNSHINE WILL ATTEMPT
TO MODIFY THE AIRMASS…AS H850 TEMPS…STARTING OUT AROUND
-20C…WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO -10C BY DAY/S END. WHILE TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL SHORT OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
MARCH…THEY WILL REACH INTO MOST PLACES…POSSIBLY TOUCHING 30
DEGREES IN THE WARMEST SPOTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR COLD NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH MID LEVELS
WILL BE WARMING. SO…WE THINK IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS FRIGID AS
TONIGHT BUT STILL LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTH…ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH OF ALBANY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM A LOW
PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH…COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE IN THOSE AREAS CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES.

FRIDAY…HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SEND
H850 TEMPERATURES FINALLY TO THE POSITIVE SIDE OF 0…MAYBE AS HIGH
AS +4 SOUTH OF ALBANY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO THE
30S…CLOSER TO NORMAL BUT STILL A TAD SHY OF IT.

FRIDAY NIGHT…A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AND AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS…WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH…GENERALLY ONLY BACK INTO THE 20S (A
FEW TEENS IN SHELTERED VALLEYS NORTH OF ALBANY).

SATURDAY…THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE MIGHT BE SOME SNOW (OR EVEN
VALLEY SPRINKLES) WITH ITS PASSAGE…BUT ONCE AGAIN THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE DEPRIVED OF MOISTURE. ANY SHOWERS OF SNOW WILL BE
LIGHT.

DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE AND MIXING…SATURDAY LOOKS TO OUR
MILDEST DAY IN QUITE SOME TIME. EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION…TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH 40 TO 45 IN THE
VALLEYS…35 TO 40 ELSEWHERE. IT WILL BE BREEZY THOUGH WHICH MIGHT
NEGATE THE MODERATION A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH TEMPS WHICH ARE CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN
RECENT DAYS.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A WEAKENING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN US WITH SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES AT THE SURFACE PASSING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE
IMPULSES AND DUE TO FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS THESE APPEAR TO BE MAINLY
MOISTURE STARVED. HAVE PLACED MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS
FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY
MEASURABLE PCPN BEING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPS EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO
UPPER 20S…TEENS TO LOWER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ON SUNDAY…30S TO
LOWER 40S ON MONDAY AND MID 20S TO AROUND 40 ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…
VFR AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS…WITH CLEARING MAINLY AFTER 00Z…
THOUGH A FEW CLOUDS MAY REMAIN AT KPOU AND KPSF INTO THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS…AND WINDS THROUGH
THE COLUMN WILL BE UNDER 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK…
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHSN OR SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS…WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN AND STRENGTHEN ON AREA
RIVERS AND LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START
TO MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK…BUT WILL STILL MAINLY BE BELOW
NORMAL.

IN ADDITION…LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW AND WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…HWJIV
NEAR TERM…HWJIV
SHORT TERM…HWJIV
LONG TERM…11
AVIATION…ELH
HYDROLOGY…FRUGIS

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