February 2, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 030249
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
949 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. BITTERLY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE
LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/…
WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS FROM 1 AM TONIGHT UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY MORNING…

AS OF 945 PM EST…CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS STORM SYSTEM
AFFECTING MUCH OF EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH…COINCIDING WITH A NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF
STRUCTURE TAKING SHAPE VIA WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. WHILE
THESE CLOUDS WILL BRING NOTHING IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION…THEY
HAVE SET UP A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION COOLING
QUICKER THAN LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS WELL BETWEEN 5-10 MPH…EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE ENOUGH SURFACE RIDGING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION HAS
ALLOWED WINDS TO GO CALM. IT IS IN THESE LOCATIONS…THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS…NORTHERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION…WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET THE MOST TONIGHT AS THE
COMBINATION OF A LINGERING SNOWPACK AND BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING
RESULT IN LOWS RANGING FROM ZERO TO -15F.

HAVE RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES…WHERE A STEADY WIND WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT…BEFORE SURFACE
RIDGING BUILDING IN TOWARDS DAYBREAK ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO CRASH
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.

THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO FOR AREAS IN THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY…AND AROUND ZERO TO 14 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
WITH THE MOISTURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY…EXPECT VERY
COLD BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LARGE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY
FORECAST 20 TO 30 POPS WITH THIS EVENT SINCE ANY FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS VERY WEAK.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS…
TO AROUND 20 ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS…AND ZERO TO 15 BELOW ELSEWHERE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MID TEENS TO MID 20S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 15 ABOVE AS
CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING AS MUCH AS THE NIGHT BEFORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/…
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND
A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD…THE REGION WILL BY DOMINATED
SYNOPTICALLY BY A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH…WITH WEAK PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH AMIDST A FAST AND CONFLUENT
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN.

A MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY…WITH PERHAPS A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING IT WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE…HIGH PRESSURE
AND ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET YET AGAIN ACROSS
THE REGION.

THIS SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ONLY BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN OBTAINS MORE OF A ZONAL NATURE…ALLOWING FOR A
MODERATING TREND ACROSS THE REGION TO END THE WORKWEEK AND INTO MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS SWITCH TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT…BUT WILL BE LARGELY MOISTURE-STARVED WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SOUTHERN
STREAM-DOMINATED COASTAL STORM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY…BUT KICKED WELL OFFSHORE BY THE
UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW. IT NOW APPEARS THAT SATURDAY WILL BE DRY
FOR THE REGION AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION BEFORE A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL INITIALLY BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO HIGH 20S BEFORE MODERATING INTO THE 30S AND EVEN
CRACKING 40 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO END THE WORKWEEK AND BEGIN
THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE FRIGID…RANGING
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 5 BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MODERATING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/…
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

TONIGHT…BROKEN MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING AHEAD OF A
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z…BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST RESULTS IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER TOWARDS DAYBREAK. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT…GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

MONDAY…HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARDS ACROSS THE
REGION RESULTING IN CONTINUED GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES…WITH SKC
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z. A LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED BRISK NORTHWESTERLY
WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS…WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK…
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH. THIS WILL
ALLOW ICE TO REFORM…THICKEN…AND STRENGTHEN ON AREA RIVERS AND
LAKES THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
033-042-082.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…GJM
NEAR TERM…IRL
SHORT TERM…GJM
LONG TERM…IRL
AVIATION…IRL
HYDROLOGY…GJM

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