March 1, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 011427
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
918 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES ON A SOUTHERLY WIND. ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
THIS EVENING…AND MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY SUNDAY. CLOUDS AND A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/…
AS OF 915 AM EST…VERY LITTLE TO CHANGE FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL. TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE
SINGLE NUMBERS INTO THE LOWER THE LOWER TEENS. HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASING BUT STILL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO SLOWLY THICKEN THROUGH THE MORNING BUT AGAIN…IN
MOST CASES SUNSHINE WILL STILL GET THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
THE 20S BY MIDDAY ACROSS MOST AREAS…WITH SOME POCKETS OF TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

BY AFTERNOON…HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREST NEAR 30 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY…20S ELSEWHERE. ANY SNOW FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/…
A DIMINISHING THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT…
ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY SUNRISE. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS POST FRONTAL WITH A VERY TIGHT
BAROCLINICITY SETTING UP ACROSS UPSTATE NY. QPF HAS COME DOWN
CONSIDERABLY WITH QPF/S GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. WE
WILL LOWER POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND PER THE CROSS
SECTIONS…SEEMS THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAY HANG ON LONGER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT TO KEEP POPS RATHER
LOW OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST THEN
NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. H850 TEMPS WILL ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SHARP DROP INTO THE MID NEGATIVE TEENS BY THE END OF
THE NIGHT. AS THE BAROCLINICITY ZONE TIGHTENS UP…A CLOSE LOOK AT
THE CROSS SECTION DOES REVEAL AN INCREASE IN FGEN FORCING BUT IT
IS RATHER LOW /BELOW H850/. THE FORCING IS BELOW THE BEST
DENDRITIC ZONE SO NOT EXPECTING THE SNOW OR ANY BANDS TO BE HEAVY
AT THIS TIME. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS…WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MAV
GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT…
MOST OF THE FORECAST WAS COMPOSED WITHOUT MUCH EMPHASIS ON THE 00Z
NAM PER CLOSE COORDINATION FROM WPC AND SURROUNDING WFOS AS THIS
MODEL CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH THE EXCEPTIONAL HIGH QPF AND
FURTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE CULPRIT TO THIS WINTRY
EVENT WAS SITUATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL MOVE INLAND
AND BEGIN TO TRACK ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE
FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE IS RATHER CONFLUENT PER THE H2O
VAPOR LOOP ANALYSIS ALONG WITH THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MANY PORTIONS
OF THE REGION WITH THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS…TACONICS…BERKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS. HERE IS WHERE THE POPS WILL BE HIGHER DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE FGEN FORCING INCREASES LATE IN THE DAY INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION /SOUTH OF ALBANY/.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED WHERE 1-2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MAINLY SOUTH OF I90 AND AN ADDITIONAL 1-2
INCHES FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AT NIGHT. SLIGHTLY
HIGHER VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE I84 CORRIDOR INTO
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY…BUT HERE TOO EXPECTED VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST SHY OF ADVISORY LEVELS. THE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW SHOULD KEEP SNOWFALL FROM GETTING OUT OF
HAND SOUTH OF ALBANY. AS THIS DIMINISHING TREND CONTINUES…THE
HWO WILL BE WORDING ACCORDINGLY. WE WILL FAVOR MAV AND
EXPERIMENTAL ECMWF MOS NUMBERS.

MONDAY…
A COLDER AND DRIER DAY IS NOW SETTING UP FOR MONDAY AS WE WILL
REMOVE POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES WERE WE WILL
HOLD ONTO CHC-SCT POPS EARLY IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE…IMPROVING
SKY CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH ISALLOBARIC RISE CENTER
SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN WHAT MOS IS CURRENTLY SUGGESTING SO WE HAVE INCREASED
THOSE VALUES SLIGHTLY. H850 TEMPS CLOSE TO -20C WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20F FOR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWFA WITH MOST
AREAS REMAINING IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/…
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK…ALLOWING FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION.

HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES
WILL RANGE FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPS ON MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE VERY COLD…WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS
WILL BE COLDER THAN -10 F OVER THE SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND IN THE
ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY…AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH THIS BEING A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM…THERE WILL BE
LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING
CLOUDS. WITH IT LOOKING SO DRY…NO SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS BOUNDARY. MIN TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN VALLEY AREAS…TO ZERO TO -15 OVER THE HILLS AND
MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN TEENS TO LOW
20S. MIN TEMPS ON WED NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN -10 AND 10 ABOVE.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY…AND
MOVE EASTWARD BY FRIDAY…ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATION OF THE AIR
MASS. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM UP TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR
THURSDAY…AND INTO THE 30S FOR FRIDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR LATE FRIDAY AND
INTO WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT…MOST MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST AND NOT AFFECTING THE REGION…ALTHOUGH THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF
DOES SHOW IT BRUSHING OUR EASTERN ZONES…AND A FEW MEMBERS
/ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY NOT THE MAJORITY/ OF THE 00Z GEFS SHOW SOME
PRECIP GETTING INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW…WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS
FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS…AND CONTINUE TO
MONITOR MODELS TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH NO
PRECIPITATION.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
TODAY…ESP FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. SCT-BKN CIGS OF 15 KFT WILL
BE IN PLACE BY THIS AFTERNOON…WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 8 KFT
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AROUND 5-10 KT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEY WILL DIMINISH BY A LITTLE BIT
DURING THE EVENING HOURS…BUT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS…MAINLY FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF…DUE TO AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE RATHER SPARSE
IN COVERAGE. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
EXTENT…TIMING…AND DURATION OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS…WILL ONLY
MENTION A VCSH FOR NOW FOR LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER…A BRIEF
REDUCTION TO MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR VSBY/CIG CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS WILL BE REFINED FURTHER IN
FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK…

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH. THIS WILL
ALLOW ICE TO REFORM…THICKEN…AND STRENGTHEN ON AREA RIVERS AND
LAKES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND…ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…BGM
NEAR TERM…HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM…BGM
LONG TERM…FRUGIS
AVIATION…FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY…FRUGIS

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