February 27, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 272346
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 PM EST THU FEB 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
BITTERLY COLD COLD ARCTIC WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN TONIGHT. IT
WILL BE RATHER WINDY THIS EVENING AS WELL WITH DIMINISHING SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/…
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR HERKIMER CO INTO EARLY FRI…

…WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI INCLUDING NORTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY…

AS OF 645 PM…MOST OF THE SNOW SQUALLS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
REGION. STILL FOLLOWING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ALSO…IT LOOKS AS
IF A LAKE BAND IS ATTEMPTING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED INTO
HERKIMER COUNTY.

THE SNOW SQUALLS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED THE REGION FOR THE EVENING
DRIVE…BUT THINGS HAVE SETTLED DOWN.

HOWEVER…STRONG GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN CLOCKED UP TO 46 MPH AT THE
ALBANY AIRPORT! THE BEST PRESSURE RISES WERE MOVING THROUGH AT THIS
TIME SO WE THINK THE WIND WILL LIKELY NOT GET ANY STRONGER.
THEREFORE WE DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE ANY WIND ADVISORIES BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY TUMBLED INTO THE TEENS LOCALLY…EVEN
SINGLE NUMBERS IN OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.

AN ARCTIC FRONT HAS JUST CROSSED MOST OF THE REGION…AND WILL SWEEP
THROUGH LITCHFIELD COUNTY BEFORE 800 PM.

ASIDE FROM THE LAKE EFFECT…SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

THE LAKE BAND LOOKS AS IF IT WILL WORK ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER THIS
EVENING…EVENTUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN HERKIMER
LATER THIS EVENING…BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THIS BAND SHOULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES SO WE HAVE KEPT THE
LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY GOING FOR HERKIMER COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BY LATER
THIS THIS EVENING ACROSS MANY AREAS…LOWER TEENS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN…INCLUDING NORTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY PER COORDINATION
WITH BOSTON AND NEW YORK. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN
15 AND 29 BELOW ZERO LATER TONIGHT…EVEN THOUGH THE WIND VALUES
THEMSELVES WILL SLOWLY ABATE.

LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT CLOSE TO ZERO IN THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD…5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AREAS. THE RECORD LOW FOR ALBANY FOR FEBRUARY 28TH IS 10 BELOW ZERO
SET BACK IN 1950 SO THAT LOOKS SAFE FOR NOW.

FOR THIS UPDATE…LOWERED POPS IN MOST AREAS (OUT SIDE THE LAKE
EFFECT ADVISORY AREA)…BUT CRANKED WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND HIGHER ELEVATION THROUGH MID
EVENING. OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH…BUT THEY
WILL ALSO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/…
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY ENDING ANY AND ALL LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN VERY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THANKS TO TO H850 TEMPERATURES -20C OR A
LITTLE LOWER ALL DAY LONG. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE..MIXING WITH FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS…IT LOOKS AS IF TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE TEENS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS…SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH OF THE COLDEST SPOTS IN THE ADIRONDACKS NOT MAKING IT
PAST ZERO DEGREES. WE WILL BE CLOSE TO A RECORD MAX AT ALBANY FOR
THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY. WE ARE FORECASTING A HIGH OF 15 WITH THE
RECORD COLD HIGH OF 13 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1879.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE CHALLENGING TO FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STREAM ACROSS THE
REGION. THE QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THESE CLOUDS COME IN. IF THEY
COME IN SLOWLY TOWARD DAYBREAK..TEMPERATURES COULD TUMBLE TO WELL BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE MIGHT HOLD TEMPERATURES
UP LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION BUT THAT IS NOT ETCHED IN STONE.
FOR NOW…WE WENT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN MOST PLACES…WHICH
PUTS MOST AREAS CLOSE TO ZERO FROM ALBANY SOUTH…WITH NORTHERN
AREAS GETTING AS LOW AS 10 BELOW ZERO ONCE MORE. THERE WILL BE NOT
MUCH WIND SO WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY…WILL FEATURE A BIT MORE CLOUDS THAN FRIDAY. A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES
UP…BUT THEY WILL STILL FALL SHORT OF NORMAL. IT LOOKS AS IF THIS
NEXT SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY BE MOISTURE STARVED SO WE LOWERED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD…LOW CHANCES TO
THE WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
20S.

SATURDAY NIGHT…THE CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WITH MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS…MOST NUMEROUS IN THE
USUAL SPOTS…THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK GENERALLY LIGHT. A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH…GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20.

SUNDAY…THE CLIPPER WILL MOVE EAST. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT COULD
PRODUCE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS…ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THAT FRONT LOOKS TO STALL SOMEWHERE TO OUR SOUTH BY
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/…
STARTING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY…BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE
IT APPEARS SOMEWHERE IN OUR AREA WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE
OF A SNOW SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE NORTH OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CYCLONE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND CAROLINAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE BATTLING A STRONG AND
SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN FACTORS WILL BE THE
STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE HIGH VS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AND FRONT.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF…WHICH IS
NOW FORECAST OVER PA/NJ/LONG ISLAND. WHILE THERE STILL IS EXPECTED
TO BE SOME SNOWFALL IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND…ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD…THERE ALSO
COULD BE A RATHER SHARP NORTHERN GRADIENT TO THE SNOWFALL. THIS MAY
RESULT IN THE ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE REGION POSSIBLY NOT SEEING
MUCH IF ANY SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA…WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A
PLOWABLE SNOW FOR THE CATSKILLS…MID HUDSON VALLEY…SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS STILL ABOUT
FOUR DAY AWAY…WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

MAINLY DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD…AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED THROUGH…WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING AND
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING.

WILL MENTION TEMPO GROUPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 01Z AT
KALB/KPSF/KGFL TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY. HOWEVER…AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL…ALTHOUGH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS PASSING
THROUGH. SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF KPOU. VFR
CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THIS EVENING FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND
15-25 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KT. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE LATER
THIS EVENING…AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TO AROUND 10-15 KT.

OUTLOOK…
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THE NEXT 5
DAYS. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND…WHICH WILL ALLOW ICE TO REFORM…THICKEN…AND
STRENGTHEN ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES THROUGH THE WEEK.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND.

A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW…MAINLY FROM ALBANY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR CTZ001.
NY…WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-051-058-063-082.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-038.
MA…WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR MAZ001-025.
VT…WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…HWJIV
NEAR TERM…HWJIV
SHORT TERM…HWJIV
LONG TERM…JPV
AVIATION…HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY…HWJIV

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