Februaru 23, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 232354
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
654 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT…
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE REGION FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT WESTERN PARTS OF
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS A STORM PASSES WELL OFF THE
COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/…
AS OF 654 PM EST…STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK WAVE THAT WILL BE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. WILL
MENTION ONLY 20-30 POPS THIS EVENING FOR A LIMITED AREA OF
SOUTHERN ULSTER…DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES FOR A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW…IF ANY…IS POSSIBLE IN
SOME SPOTS

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT…WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS…AND ALSO AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE
TO HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THIS REGION WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN HALF AN INCH AND TWO INCHES. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO MORE W-NW BY MONDAY
MORNING…WHICH WILL ALLOW ANY SNOW BANDS TO QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH
AND THUS RESULTING IN SHORT RESIDENCE TIME OVER ANY ONE LOCATION.

ELSEWHERE…SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE ADIRONDACK ZONES…INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS ASSOCIATED WITH FRAGMENTED LAKE BANDS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S…WITH SINGLE DIGITS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACK ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/…
THE LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. INLAND EXTENT OF HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS IS STILL
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME SO HAVE KEPT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE
POTENTIAL THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ELSEWHERE…GENERALLY UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHINESS AND SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY…AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

VERY COLD AND BLUSTERY DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S MOST PLACES MONDAY…EXCEPT LOWER 30S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND MOST OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS WITH SOME BELOW ZERO
READINGS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TEENS TO
THE 20S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/…
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD…A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
BE PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS…WITH PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION…RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.

A PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A STORM SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD…BUT TRACK FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO
BRING ONLY MINOR IMPACTS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY…WITH
PERHAPS A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS…WHERE LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM OFFSHORE QUICKLY EXITS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION…SURFACE RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LEAVING
MUCH OF THE REGION DRY. HOWEVER…THE COMBINATION OF AN INCREASINGLY
STRONGER LATE FEBRUARY SUN AND MOIST FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.

BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SNOW…AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT AT THIS POINT GIVEN IT BEING
SO FAR OUT IN TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE LOW TEENS TO MID 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE FRIGID
AND GENERALLY RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO NORTH AND WEST TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/…
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
TONIGHT…WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING BY SOUTH OF THE REGION.
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT KPOU THIS EVENING ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE DISTURBANCE…BUT ONLY MVFR VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY FROM AROUND 02Z-06Z. OTHERWISE…WILL
MENTION VCSH AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF ESPECIALLY TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING
WHEN SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS MAY PASS THROUGH AS ARCTIC
AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED…BUT ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 5-10 KT…WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING FURTHER BY MID
MONDAY MORNING TO AROUND 13-18 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FROM KALB-KPSF IN THE FAVORED W-NW
FLOW.

OUTLOOK…
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL AND
SNOW MELT. WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MASS RETURNING TONIGHT…MUCH COLDER
WEATHER…WITH TEMPERATURES COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING…WILL RETURN
FOR ALL OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL LIMIT SNOW MELT AND ALLOW
ICE TO REFORM AND STRENGTHEN ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK…AND ANY
THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…GJM
NEAR TERM…GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM…GJM
LONG TERM…IRL
AVIATION…JPV
HYDROLOGY…FRUGIS

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