February 22, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 222341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
641 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
A FAST MOVING BUT WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE…MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE ENTIRE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/…
AS OF 640 PM EST… MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STARTING TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING…WHILE
LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH REMAIN CLEAR FOR NOW. WINDS HAVE DECREASED
AS DAYTIME MIXING HAS WANED. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL MILD AS OF 6
PM…BUT SHOULD START TO DROP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE DRY AIR
MASS. AS TEMPERATURES COLD TO BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT…AREAS OF
BLACK ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON ROADS AND WALKWAYS DUE TO RE-
FREEZING OF MELTING SNOW FROM EARLIER TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE WINDS DECREASING TO 10 MPH OR LESS. LOOKING AT
SATELLITE PICS AND RADAR FROM LOCATIONS IN THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY…THE NEXT DISTURBANCE LOOKS VERY WEAK AND POORLY ORGANIZED
WITH ONLY MEAGER PRECIP REPORTED IN OBS EARLY THIS EVENING. DON`T
SEE HOW IT WILL STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE ONE TO TWO TENTHS
OF INCH LIQUID THAT THE NAM SHOWS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
ARE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. PREFER THE GFS/ECMWF MUCH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS AND LOWER POPS. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 PERCENT POPS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN A WEST-EAST BAND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA…WITH 20 PERCENT ELSEWHERE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S…WITH SOME UPPER 40S STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT…IF ANY
PCPN DOES OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY…VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WILL
SEE THIS PCPN FALL AS RAIN SHOWERS BY MID SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/…
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PASS BY THE SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT…
WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GET GOING EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION…MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE UNITED STATES.

HAVE ONLY FORECAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF
GETTING ANY SNOW FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS
WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FORECAST WHERE THE THREAT OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS HIGHEST. INITIALLY…ANY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BANDS WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY…AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD TO OVER THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO
THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES COURTESY OF A LARGE SCALE MEAN TROUGH REMAINING
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND SOUTHEAST CANADA. MOST OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY…AS A FEW
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH.

ON TUESDAY WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION…A POSSIBLE
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS…ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY WHERE LAKE MOISTURE/UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ENHANCE CHANCES.

WEDNESDAY IS THE ONE DAY WHEN INTERACTION WITH SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY IS POSSIBLE…AS A POTENTIAL SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST. AT THIS TIME…MOST SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE
TRACK THIS SYSTEM WELL OFF SHORE…BUT IF THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
QUICKER AND FARTHER WEST THAN FORECAST…IT COULD POTENTIALLY DRAW
THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE COAST. HOWEVER…THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SEEN
IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE
RANGE THOUGH…AS IT APPEARS WE AT LEAST MAY GET SOME LIGHT SNOW
FROM THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE.

ON THURSDAY…ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER MAY BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. OTHERWISE A COLD AND EXPANSIVE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THIS SHOULD ENSURE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/…
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD ENDING 00Z MONDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE MIDWEST.
THERE COULD BE A STRAY SNOW SHOWER OR TWO FROM KALB-KPSF…SO
INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH FROM 09Z-15Z SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT THIS EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING TO 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK…
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING…AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A STEADY CONTROLLED SNOW MELT…WHICH WILL LIMIT FLOODING
CONCERNS. MUCH COLDER WEATHER…WITH TEMPERATURES COMPLETELY BELOW
FREEZING…WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED ICE JAMS ON SMALLER STREAMS
AND CREEKS THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO MELT AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…GJM
NEAR TERM…GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM…GJM
LONG TERM…JPV
AVIATION…JPV
HYDROLOGY…SND

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