February 18, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 181135
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM
WILL BRING SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY. MILDER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK…ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EXTENDED UNTIL
6 PM EST THIS EVENING…

AS OF 630 AM EST…LIGHT SNOW HAS STARTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NW CT…AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN GREENS…AND ALSO ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE…A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR HAS
PREVENTED MUCH OF THE SNOW FROM REACHING THE SFC…WITH MAINLY
VIRGA THUS FAR.

THROUGH AROUND 9 AM…WE EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION…FALLING STEADILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND EVENTUALLY THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION…AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN
THESE REGIONS…A COATING…TO UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL
THROUGH 9 AM. ELSEWHERE…MAINLY FLURRIES OR JUST SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED…WHICH COULD LEAVE A DUSTING THROUGH 9 AM.

BETWEEN 9 AM AND NOON…A SURGE OF STRONGER MID LEVEL VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION…LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME INFUSED INTO THE REGION FROM THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SNOW TO
BLOSSOM ACROSS THE REGION…WITH A FEW BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW
POSSIBLE. INITIALLY…SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT SHOULD FAVOR THE
STEADIER SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS…MOHAWK
VALLEY REGION…AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION…AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS…AND ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT…BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION BY NOONTIME AS THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY MOISTENS.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST…AND THE APPROACHING LOW FROM THE GREAT
LAKES…AS WELL AS A WEAK SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TRADITIONALLY FAVORED REGIONS OF THE TACONICS…SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES…WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40
MPH AT TIMES THROUGH MID MORNING. WINDS COULD ALSO BECOME QUITE
GUSTY AT TIMES WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION…POSSIBLY
REACHING 30-35 MPH AT TIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WHETHER THESE
STRONGER WINDS COINCIDE WITH THE STEADIER SNOW…OR IF THEY OCCUR
JUST PRIOR…AS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW COULD BECOME PROBLEMATIC.

BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM…THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN
ADDITION…THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NYS. BANDS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION…WITH THE SNOW BECOMING MORE
SHOWERY AS THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL PASSES OVERHEAD…AND THE
OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH. THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE OR EVEN LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN SOME AREAS
DURING THIS TIME. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND…A MORE PERSISTENT SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED…WHICH COULD BE MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY AT TIMES FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS. IN THESE AREAS…SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF 4-6 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON…WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS POSSIBLE…PERHAPS LOCALLY 6-8 INCHES…ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHEAST LITCHFIELD CO…EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO…AND INTO WINDHAM
CO VT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION…GENERALLY 1-4 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED…WITH THE HIGHER SIDE OF THIS RANGE MOST
LIKELY OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS…AS WELL AS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY…SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS…AND THE
LAKE GEORGE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
OCCUR IN SOME OF THESE AREAS…AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN
CASE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED. THE SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 4
AND 6 PM AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND
PAST THE REGION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE REACHED DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON…WITH MOSTLY 20S…ALONG WITH SOME LOWER 30S IN VALLEY
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/…
TONIGHT…CLOUDS AND SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING…BEFORE DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
AND A DOWNSLOPING W/NW FLOW ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR LATER
THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. TRICKY CALL ON MIN
TEMPS…AS WIND AND CLOUDS COULD PERSIST LONGER THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED…WHICH COULD RESULT IN HIGHER MINS. FOR NOW…GENERALLY
TOOK A 50/50 BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS…WITH WIDESPREAD TEENS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY…YET ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ONE MAY HAVE A BIT MORE IN THE
WAY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT…BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL ALSO BE
WARMER THAN TODAY. SO…EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP IN MOST AREAS
DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS…AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. SOME RAIN MAY BE MIXED IN ACROSS VALLEY AREAS…ESP
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. GENERALLY EXPECT SNOWFALL AMTS OF
1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION…PERHAPS A BIT LESS ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 35-40 IN
VALLEYS…AND 30-35 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY…IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAY/S
SYSTEM…BRISK WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PROMOTE SOME LINGERING
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS…AND POSSIBLY INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY. THEN…CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP LATER IN THE
EVENING. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. ON THU…A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION…ALLOWING FOR
SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING…BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD
DEVELOP TOWARD OR AFTER SUNSET…ESP FOR AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN OR SLEET WOULD BE FAVORED.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS…AND
LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/…
FAST MOVING SYSTEMS WILL BE THE NORM DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
THE JET STREAM LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION. THERE LOOK TO BE
PCPN EVENTS EVERY 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH LULLS IN BETWEEN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY…LOOKS UNSETTLED AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COMPLEX
FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ON FRIDAY. PTYPE WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE AS EXPECT A
MIXTURE OF SNOW…SLEET…FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MOSTLY RAIN ON FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S WITH SOME UPPER
20S ACRS PARTS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHILE HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 40S…EXCEPT UPPER 30S ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT…LOOK TO BE DRY AT THIS POINT IN
TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH AND EAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY…A SYSTEM OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO RACE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING POPS FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH PTYPE MAINLY SNOW. EXPECT HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 14Z
AT THE TAF SITES WITH OCNL IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WITH KGFL AND
KPSF LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE MORE PROLONGED PERIODS OF IFR UNTIL ARND
22Z. THE SNOW WILL RESULT FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. VSBYS AND CIGS MAY FINALLY START TO
IMPROVE BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING…ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL LIKELY STILL
STAY MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LATER TONIGHT
GENERALLY BTWN 04Z-06Z CIGS WL LIFT TO VFR,

WINDS WILL BE E-SE AT 5-10 KTS ON TUESDAY. BY LATE IN THE
DAY…THEY WILL SWITCH TO THE W-NW AT SIMILAR SPEEDS AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK…
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF
SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA…RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA…SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
WITH A LIGHT SNOW EVENT IN STORE FOR TUESDAY…MORE SNOW/LIQUID WILL BE
ADDED TO OUR CURRENT PACK. SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ARE GENERALLY FROM A FOOT TO
THREE FEET. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK…OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING TO ALLOW A MELT FREEZE CYCLE TO TAKE
PLACE. THIS WILL HELP WITH A SLOW MELT AND HOPEFULLY ALLEVIATE ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE…
THE MONTHLY SNOWFALL TOTAL FOR FEBRUARY AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT IS AT 25.7 INCHES THROUGH THE 16TH. THIS AMOUNT IS ONLY 0.3 INCHES
FROM REACHING INTO THE TOP 10 FOR SNOWIEST FEBRUARYS SINCE 1885.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

TOP 10 SNOWIEST FEBRUARYS ALBANY
1. 40.7 INCHES 1893
2. 34.5 INCHES 1962
3. 32.3 INCHES 1926
4. 31.7 INCHES 1950
5. 30.1 INCHES 2011
6. 28.6 INCHES 1993
7. 27.5 INCHES 1899
8. 26.1 INCHES 1914
9. 26.0 INCHES 1958
10. 26.0 INCHES 1988

LOOKING AT THE SEASONAL SNOWFALL IT STANDS AT 62.8 INCHES. NORMAL FOR
THE ENTIRE WINTER SEASON IS 59.1 INCHES.

SO HOW DOES THIS WINTER COMPARE TO RECENT WINTERS FOR ALBANY…

2012-13: 51.4 INCHES
2011-12: 23.3 INCHES
2010-11: 87.2 INCHES
2009-10: 45.4 INCHES
2008-09: 52.6 INCHES
2007-08: 61.1 INCHES
2006-07: 45.9 INCHES
2005-06: 30.2 INCHES
2004-05: 75.9 INCHES
2003-04: 65.1 INCHES
2002-03: 105.4 INCHES
2001-02: 47.4 INCHES
2000-01: 77.1 INCHES

ALBANY EXTREMES:
SNOWIEST 1970-71 WITH 112.5 INCHES
LEAST 1912-13 WITH ONLY 13.8 INCHES

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-
013.
NY…NONE.
MA…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…VTK/KL
NEAR TERM…KL
SHORT TERM…KL
LONG TERM…11
AVIATION…FRUGIS/11
HYDROLOGY…VTK/KL
CLIMATE…

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