Tuesday February 18 2014

Light snow today

Last Updated:

6:15AM Tuesday
February 18, 2014

School Forecast For:
Tuesday February 18th

Two Hour Delay No School Early Dismissal
0% 40% 0%

Brief Overview
Last Updated: 6:15AM Feb. 18th

Surprise!

A large dry slot developed across central NY and Pennsylvania.
So although snow is just now beginning, and not even sticking just yet, school districts are either closed or on a delay.

Light snow will continue through the afternoon.
The dry slot may put a hold on the snowfall around 8-10AM
before the snow over eastern NY arrives.

There is a decent shot at an upgrade to a cancellation.
… depends on what that dry slot does.


10:00PM Monday

The factor in question this evening has been the start time.
After reviewing the radar and reviewing the National Weather Service times, it is possible that snow does breakout before 5AM… as early as 4AM. Temperatures are currently in the lower teens, so any snow that does fall should have no problem sticking.

Decided to slightly favor the cancellation for this final update, but it all hinges on that start time and is really a toss up. If there is no cancellation, then there is a very decent chance at an early dismissal as temperatures will remain below freezing until at least 1PM or 2PM. Still expecting 2 to 5 inches.

I went through the archive, and pulled out a couple of comparable events . . mainly based on start times.

January 10, 2014 Cancellation
Started around 4AM
Tapered off around 9AM
Total accumulation 0.5 inches

November 26, 2013 Cancellation
Started around 4AM
Tapered off around 7AM
Total accumulation 0.5 inches

January 28, 2010 Early Dismissal
Started around 6AM
Tapered off around late morning
Total accumulation 1.75 inches

So far this "weekend" has been five days long.
With 10 used snow days, Kingston's spring break is down to five days as well. If any additional snow days are used, this weekend will have been longer than Kingston's entire spring break.

I have updated the "Kingstonsnows Extras" tab with a look at how this season is doing, compared to recent seasons.

-Ethan


6:00PM Monday

Snow to start around 5AM.
Well under an inch of snow by 7AM.

Looking for 1 to 3 inches between 7AM and 1PM.
Under an inch of snow after 1PM.

Total accumulations: 2 to 5 inches.

Based on the forecast above and on past events,
still feeling that the start time will be too late for cancellations.
An early dismissal would not be a surprise.

However, that start time is critical.
Will have a final update by 10PM.

Kingstonsnows Extended Forecast
Last Updated: 8:45AM Feb. 17th

Forecast at a glance
- AM °F PM °F Weather Timing Confidence
Tuesday 16 to 21 30 to 35 Snow: 2 to 5" 5AM - 2PM High
Wednesday
18 to 23 32 to 37 Partly cloudy
-
High
Thursday 20 to 25 32 to 37 Some Clouds PM High
Friday 30 to 35 47 to 52 Rain showers
AM Medium
Saturday 25 to 30 33 to 38 Clear - Medium
Sunday 25 to 35 35 to 45 Some Clouds - Medium
Monday 26 to 36 30 to 40 Flurries AM/PM Low

Tuesday

Snow.
Mainly between 5AM and 2PM.
Accumulations of 2 to 5 inches possible.
Lows in the upper teens.
Highs in the lower 30's.

Wednesday

Periods of clouds.
A chance of flurries or snow showers.
No accumulation anticipated.
Lows around 20.
Highs in the mid 30's.

Thursday

Mostly clear with increasing PM clouds.
Lows in the lower 20's.
Highs in the mid 30's.

Friday

Cloudy.
A chance of rain showers in the morning.
Steady rain likely in the afternoon.
Lows in the lower 30s.
Highs close to 50.

Saturday

Mostly clear.
Lows in the upper 20's.
Highs in the mid 30's.

Sunday

Clear early,
then increasing clouds.
Temperatures ranging from the lower 20's
to the upper 30's.

Monday

Mostly cloudy,
A chance of snow showers.
Temperatures ranging from the upper 20's
to around 40.

Long-range school impact (probability)
The long range impact is a general outlook, and is not a specific forecast.
Day (Date) Delay
Cancellation E.D.
Confidence
Monday (17) None
None
None
High
Tuesday (18) Low
Low Medium
Medium
Wednesday (19) None
None
None High
Thursday (20) None
None None High
Friday (21) None
None
None Medium
Long range impact last Updated: 4:00PM February 15th

Kingstonsnows ♦ Kingston, NY

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