February 18, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 190223
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
923 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK…ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/…
CLOUD COVER IS RETREATING NORTH AND THE SNOW FLURRIES ARE OVER.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THE PERIOD
OF CLEAR SKY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
MORE THAN FORECASTED IN SOME AREAS…SO SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHER MINOR CHANGES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
FAST MOVING SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/…
WEDNESDAY…YET ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ONE MAY HAVE A BIT MORE IN THE
WAY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT…BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL ALSO BE
WARMER THAN TODAY. SO…EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP IN MOST AREAS
DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS…AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. SOME RAIN MAY BE MIXED IN ACROSS VALLEY AREAS…ESP ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. GENERALLY EXPECT SNOWFALL AMTS OF 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION…AND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
REGION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT AS THE SNOW CHANGES TO RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING IT COULD STILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO GET SOME FREEZING
RAIN…BUT AT THIS POINT THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL AND IT HAS
NOT BEEN MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY…IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAY/S SYSTEM…
BRISK WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PROMOTE SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS…AND POSSIBLY INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY. THEN…CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP LATER IN THE EVENING.
EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE. ON THU…A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION…ALLOWING FOR SOME
SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING…BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD DEVELOP
TOWARD SUNSET OVER WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S.

THURSDAY NIGHT…RAIN WILL MOVE INTO ALL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
HAVE FORECAST CATEGORICAL POPS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW FREEZING
THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE. HOWEVER…SOME
ADIRONDACK LOCATIONS COULD DROP TO BELOW FREEZING FOR A TIME AND
SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN FORECAST THERE. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW OR MID 30S…BUT THE L;OWS WILL OCCUR EARLY
WITH THE TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
THERE SHOULD BE QUITE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORCING AND FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG A QUICK MOVING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE
WELL INTO THE 40S…MAYBE NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT. SHOWERS…MAYBE EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SOME PLACES…
SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT…WHICH SHOULD EXIT
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

ONCE THE FRONT EXITS…COLD ADVECTION BEGINS…BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE
VERY STRONG AND TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S IN MOST PLACES…COOLER IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
THERE IS TRAILING UPPER ENERGY AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX WITHIN A MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD REINFORCE THE COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. ON SUNDAY…SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS…POSSIBLE SOME DAYTIME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS…SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE MAIN REINFORCING COLD FRONT. HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40…COOLER IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY…HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES RATHER SPLIT AND VARIOUS SOURCES OF GUIDANCE HAVE A RANGE OF
OPINIONS AS TO THE POSITION OF VARIOUS FEATURES THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
AFFECT OUR REGION IN THE MONDAY OR TUESDAY TIME FRAME. SUGGESTING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30…BUT UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/…
SNOW WILL TAPERING OFF AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA…
BUT KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL ALL THE SNOW HAS ENDED.
CONDITIONS ARE RETURNING TO VFR…HOWEVER SOME FOG WILL PERSIST
FOR PART OF THIS EVENING AT KGFL…TO THE IFR/MVFR LEVEL.
AFTERWARD…VFR CIGS WILL RETURN FOR ALL SITES WILL JUST SOME BKN
CIGS AROUND 4-5 KFT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR
NOW…WILL ADDRESS WITH JUST A VCSH FOR THE LATE MORNING HOURS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL TIMING/EXTENT OF THE PRECIP BECOMES
MORE CLEAR.

VARIABLE WINDS AT LESS THAN 6 KT WILL SWITCH TO A W-NW DIRECTION
THIS EVENING AROUND 5 KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT…BUT
SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING…AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK…
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA…SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND ARE GENERALLY FROM A FOOT TO THREE FEET. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK…EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT…OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW MELT AND
HOPEFULLY MINIMIZE ANY FLOOD THREAT. RAINFALL TOTALS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE…SO MUCH OF THIS RAINFALL SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE…
THE MONTHLY SNOWFALL TOTAL FOR FEBRUARY AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT IS AT 25.7 INCHES THROUGH THE 16TH. THIS AMOUNT IS ONLY 0.3
INCHES FROM REACHING INTO THE TOP 10 FOR SNOWIEST FEBRUARYS SINCE
1885.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

TOP 10 SNOWIEST FEBRUARYS ALBANY
1. 40.7 INCHES 1893
2. 34.5 INCHES 1962
3. 32.3 INCHES 1926
4. 31.7 INCHES 1950
5. 30.1 INCHES 2011
6. 28.6 INCHES 1993
7. 27.5 INCHES 1899
8. 26.1 INCHES 1914
9. 26.0 INCHES 1958
10. 26.0 INCHES 1988

LOOKING AT THE SEASONAL SNOWFALL IT STANDS AT 62.8 INCHES. NORMAL FOR
THE ENTIRE WINTER SEASON IS 59.1 INCHES.

SO HOW DOES THIS WINTER COMPARE TO RECENT WINTERS FOR ALBANY…

2012-13: 51.4 INCHES
2011-12: 23.3 INCHES
2010-11: 87.2 INCHES
2009-10: 45.4 INCHES
2008-09: 52.6 INCHES
2007-08: 61.1 INCHES
2006-07: 45.9 INCHES
2005-06: 30.2 INCHES
2004-05: 75.9 INCHES
2003-04: 65.1 INCHES
2002-03: 105.4 INCHES
2001-02: 47.4 INCHES
2000-01: 77.1 INCHES

ALBANY EXTREMES:
SNOWIEST 1970-71 WITH 112.5 INCHES
LEAST 1912-13 WITH ONLY 13.8 INCHES

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…GJM
NEAR TERM…GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM…GJM
LONG TERM…NAS
AVIATION…NAS
HYDROLOGY…GJM
CLIMATE…IAA

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