February 17, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 171108
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
608 AM EST MON FEB 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY…AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING STORM MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING SOME SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM EST
FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS.

AS OF 415 AM EST…SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
A BRISK W/NW WIND HAS BEEN PERSISTING IN AREAS WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY…INCLUDING THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES…AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS IN MOST AREAS…EVEN WHERE THE WIND HAS
PERSISTED…WHILE FALLING TO ZERO TO 5 BELOW WHERE WINDS HAVE
TRENDED TO CALM.

THROUGH SUNRISE…WE EXPECT THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE A BIT
MORE…ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL ANOTHER SEVERAL DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS BY 7 AM…GENERALLY TO BETWEEN ZERO AND 5 ABOVE IN MOST
VALLEYS…AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY…WITH JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. W/NW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
INCREASE A BIT BY MID MORNING…BUT AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CRESTS OVERHEAD…WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/…
THROUGH MIDNIGHT…SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY…AS JUST
SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. IT APPEARS THAT THERE
SHOULD BE A WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM SUNSET THROUGH
AROUND 10-11 PM…AS WINDS TREND TO NEARLY CALM. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS IN MOST
AREAS…WITH SOME SUBZERO READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS SHELTERED
VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND…AS WELL AS IN THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS
VALUES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MIN TEMPS…BUT MAY NOT HAVE UNDERCUT
ENOUGH…AS TEMPS COULD FALL EVEN MORE RAPIDLY GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION.

AFTER MIDNIGHT…CLOUDS SHOULD RAPIDLY THICKEN FROM W TO E…IN
ADVANCE OF A SMALL BUT POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. A BURST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT…MOST PROMINENT
ALONG THE 280-285 K SURFACES…SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. ACCUMS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN UNDER AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS FROM THE HUDSON RIVER EAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND…WITH PERHAPS 1-2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS…AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. TEMPS…AFTER
REACHING MINS THIS EVENING…SHOULD RISE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
CLOUDS THICKEN AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
WINDS COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY TOWARD DAYBREAK…ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TACONICS…SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS…BERKSHIRES…AND
WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION…WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY
REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY…THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW
FOR TWO SFC LOWS TO AFFECT THE REGION…ONE TRANSLATING NORTHEAST
INTO ONTARIO/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND…WHILE A SECONDARY SFC LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE SYSTEM/S WARM FRONT IN THE NYC/LI
VICINITY…AND TRACKS EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT…A PERIOD OF
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS…INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE REGION…FROM THE SE CATSKILLS…ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY…NW CT…BERKSHIRES…AND EVENTUALLY INTO SE VT. IN
THESE AREAS…THE FORCING…COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT…SHOULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL AMTS OF 3-6 INCHES
DURING TUESDAY. SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE FURTHER
THAT THESE SNOWFALL ACCUMS WILL OCCUR…THEN WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND…AND POSSIBLY SOME PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY.
ELSEWHERE…GENERALLY 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED…ALTHOUGH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE ADIRONDACKS.

THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS…SO A
PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW MAY BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN THE
AFTERNOON…ESP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS N AND W. IN
FACT…FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SOMEWHAT STEEP…LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATE WITHIN THE 1000-700 HPA LAYER…SO SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE MORNING INTO AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY…THE FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING TO DEVELOP JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. AS FOR
TEMPS…HAVE SIDED WITH THE COLDER MOS VALUES ASSUMING CLOUDS AND
SNOW PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY…WITH FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 20S…WITH SOME 30S POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

TUE NT-WED NT…MUCH OF TUE NT SHOULD BE FREE OF
PRECIPITATION…ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS COULD LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS EARLY. OTHERWISE…EXPECT A PERIOD OF CLEARING LATE…WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. ON WED…ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS POISED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE
MAY BE A BIT MORE LIMITED THAN WITH TUESDAY/S SYSTEM…BUT STILL
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERMAL
PROFILES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER…BUT SOME WARMING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD ALLOW FOR
RAIN TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITHIN VALLEY AREAS. AT THIS
TIME…IT APPEARS SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT…GENERALLY
ONE INCH OR LESS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 30S TO AROUND 40
IN VALLEYS…AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FOR WED NT…ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO END. SOME CLEARING IS
POSSIBLE…ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS TO
PERSIST. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/…
FAST MOVING SYSTEMS WILL BE THE NORM DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
THE JET STREAM LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION. THERE LOOK TO BE
PCPN EVENTS EVERY 24 HOURS OR SO WITH LULLS IN BETWEEN.

THURSDAY…EXPECT A DRY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER FA DURING
THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND THEN SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THUS EXPECT MORNING SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO AFTERNOON CLOUDS.
IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE MILD WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO
MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY…LOOKS UNSETTLED AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COMPLEX
FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS EAST AND
CHANCE POPS WEST ON FRIDAY. PTYPE WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE AS EXPECT A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY RAIN ON FRIDAY.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY IN THE 40S…EXCEPT UPPER 30S ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY…LOOK TO BE DRY AT THIS POINT IN TIME AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH AND EAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY…HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AS A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
RACES EAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR
REGION LATE SATURDAY. EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/…
MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 03Z-04Z THIS EVENING. LATER
TONIGHT AFTER 09Z SKIES WILL BECOME OVC060 AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

WINDS WILL BE NE-NW AT 4 TO 8 KTS THIS MORNING AND THEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK…
MON NT-TUE: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
TUE NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA…SHSN.
WED NT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK.

SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND ARE GENERALLY FROM A FOOT TO THREE FEET.

ANOTHER WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A CHANGE IN OUR PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR A PERIOD FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING ALONG
WITH SOME RAIN. AT THIS TIME…LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE THE 30S WHICH WOULD SLOW MELT CONSIDERABLY. THE SNOWPACK IS
EXPECTED TO RIPEN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE…
THE MONTHLY SNOWFALL TOTAL AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS
NOW 25.7 INCHES THROUGH THE 15TH. THIS AMOUNT IS ONLY 0.3 INCHES
FROM REACHING INTO THE TOP 10 FOR SNOWIEST FEBRUARYS SINCE 1885.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TOP 10 SNOWIEST FEBRUARYS ALBANY
1. 40.7 INCHES 1893
2. 34.5 INCHES 1962
3. 32.3 INCHES 1926
4. 31.7 INCHES 1950
5. 30.1 INCHES 2011
6. 28.6 INCHES 1993
7. 27.5 INCHES 1899
8. 26.1 INCHES 1914
9. 26.0 INCHES 1958
10. 26.0 INCHES 1988

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
042-058-063-082.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…IAA/KL
NEAR TERM…KL
SHORT TERM…KL
LONG TERM…11
AVIATION…11
HYDROLOGY…IAA/KL
CLIMATE…

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