February 17, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 162335
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
VERY COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND SHIFT EAST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A FAST
MOVING STORM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/…
AS OF 635 PM EST…THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT TO 8 AM MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE SOUTH IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THERE ALSO ARE SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS…ESP ACROSS DUTCHESS…LITCHFIELD…AND
COLUMBIA COUNTIES…WHICH MAY LEAVE A VERY LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
THIS EVENING. ANY SNOW WILL BE BRIEF…AND SHOULD BE OVER ABOUT
8-9 PM. OTHERWISE…THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL STAY
DRY…WITH MORE CLOUDS THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO. CLOUDS SHOULD
START TO CLEAR OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT…AND MANY AREAS WILL BE FAIRLY
CLEAR BY DAYBREAK.

COLDER AIR HAS BEEN DRAWN INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
POWERFUL STORM THAT IMPACTED NEW ENGLAND. WITH DEEP SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTING LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
-10 DEGREES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
TEMPS WILL REALLY FALL LATER TONIGHT ONCE THE WINDS DIE DOWN AND
CLOUDS DEPART. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST…HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL
VALUES OF AROUND -20 DEGREES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY…

THE SURFACE RIDGE CRESTS OVER REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH HIGHS
RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUNSHINE.

IN THE MEANTIME…A SPLIT FLOW UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CONUS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER LONG ISLAND AND ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTHEN OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND APPROACH HERE WHICH FAVORS THE
ECMWF. EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCH SNOWFALL.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS ALONG
THE UNITED STATES-CANADIAN BORDER REACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY AND MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SOME AS IT APPROACHES AND
MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH. GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS…HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 30S TO MID
40S DUE TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF SYSTEM…SO RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/…
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A LOW AMPLITUDE SINUSOIDAL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WITH ORIGINS OVER THE
PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FLUCTUATE FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO AT TIMES ABOVE NORMAL DICTATED BY THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE DISTURBANCES. THE TREND OVERALL IS A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING IN THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK IN
THE SHORT TERM WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT…A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING EAST INTO THE REGION TO START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN AREAS FOR A SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM…CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AT THIS
TIME. AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON…OUR AREA WILL HAVE A WIND SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHEAST
FLOW WHICH WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 40S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT…TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT…A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTH OVER OUR REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS A
RESULT…WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE DICTATED BY DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS. A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL RAIN IN ALL LOCATIONS BY LATE
MORNING ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 12Z MODEL AND MOS DATA. T850 AND
T925 WILL RANGE FROM 8C TO 10C WHICH WILL MAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGE FROM NEAR 40 IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
DROPPING BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH A WESTERLY WIND FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY…BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT…A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH AND ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
TO LOWER 40S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. STILL BEING SEVERAL DAYS OUT IN
THE FORECAST…AS WE GO TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY…SOME
MODELS SHOW A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHILE OTHER
DATA SOURCES SHOW NO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE
THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/…
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
00Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION BE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AT
KPOU…WHERE PASSING SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR VSBYS.
OTHERWISE…CIGS WILL BE BKN-OVC FOR KALB/KPOU/KPSF THIS
EVENING…WITH JUST SCT HIGH CLOUDS AT KGFL.

WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE OVER ATLANTIC CANADA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT…WITH MOST AREAS JUST
HAVING SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDS BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK…
MON NIGHT-TUE: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA…SHSN.
WED NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK.

SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND ARE GENERALLY FROM A FOOT TO THREE FEET.

ANOTHER WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A CHANGE IN OUR PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR A PERIOD FROM THURSDAYS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING ALONG WITH
SOME RAIN. AT THIS TIME…LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
THE 30S WHICH WOULD SLOW MELT CONSIDERABLE. THE SNOWPACK IS EXPECTED
TO RIPEN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE…
THE MONTHLY SNOWFALL TOTAL AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS
NOW 25.7 INCHES THROUGH THE 15TH. THIS AMOUNT IS ONLY 0.3 INCHES
FROM REACHING INTO THE TOP 10 FOR SNOWIEST FEBRUARYS SINCE 1885.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TOP 10 SNOWIEST FEBRUARYS ALBANY
1. 40.7 INCHES 1893
2. 34.5 INCHES 1962
3. 32.3 INCHES 1926
4. 31.7 INCHES 1950
5. 30.1 INCHES 2011
6. 28.6 INCHES 1993
7. 27.5 INCHES 1899
8. 26.1 INCHES 1914
9. 26.0 INCHES 1958
10. 26.0 INCHES 1988

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
FOR NYZ032-033-042-058-063-082.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…IAA
NEAR TERM…IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM…IAA
LONG TERM…LFM
AVIATION…FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY…IAA
CLIMATE…IAA

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