February 14, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 141128
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
A POWERFUL COASTAL STORM OVER CAPE COLD WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE AND TAKE THE SNOW SHIELD TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING. A
BRISK WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM WILL PRODUCE SOME
BLOWING SNOW…ESPECIALLY IN OUTLYING AREAS. ANOTHER STORM WILL
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH…AND COULD BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW TO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALL OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS OF 500 AM EDT…AN IMPRESSIVE MEGA BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPED AS
ANTICIPATED…WITH ITS CENTER OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY. SNOWFALL RATES
OF 3-4 INCHES AN HOUR WERE CONFIRMED A FEW HOURS BY OBSERVERS AT THE
ALBANY AIRPORT AND SOCIAL MEDIA FROM WEST SAND LAKE. DBZ VALUES
APPROACHED AND AT TIMES EXCEED 30.

THIS BAND WAS WEAKENING…WITH MOST AREAS NOW RECEIVING SNOWFALL
RATES OF AN INCH AN HOUR OR LESS. THESE RATES WILL DROP THROUGH
DAYBREAK…DOWN TO LIGHTER SNOW…WHICH COULD PERSIST AWHILE LONGER
INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

THIS SNOW BAND WAS THE RESULT OF A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREAS…RACING TO "CAPTURE" A 976 MB SURFACE LOW OFF THE
NORTHERN TIP OF CAPE COD.

VERY PRELIMINARY REPORTS HAVE INDICATED THAT ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 20
INCHES HAVE FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION…WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS TO AROUND 20 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL ISSUE
PUBLIC STATEMENTS WHEN WE GET MORE SNOWFALL REPORTS IN LATER THIS
MORNING. GENERALLY AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL LIKELY
ACCUMULATE THROUGH DAYBREAK. THAT MEANS WE WILL VERY LIKELY HAVE
SNOWFALL REPORTS IN EXCESS OF TWO FEET WITH THIS STORM IS SAID AND
DONE LATER TODAY.

EVEN AFTER DAYBREAK…WE WILL LIKELY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
WOODS.

THERE COULD A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOHAWK HUDSON CONVERGENCE IN AND
AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION…AS THE WIND IN THE HUDSON VALLEY HOLDS
FROM THE NORTH…WHILE TURNING NORTHWESTERLY IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY.
THIS COULD ADD AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW TO THE CAPITAL REGION EVEN
AFTER THAT BANDS FURTHER DIMINISH.

AS THE WIND TURNS NORTHWESTERLY EVERYWHERE AFTER DAYBREAK…WE WE
LIKELY BE DEALING WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW…ESPECIALLY IN OUTLYING
AREAS. THIS WOULD CONTINUE TO HAMPER SNOW REMOVAL EFFORTS.
NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH…GUSTING TO 30 MPH…PERHAPS
CLOSER TO 40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN…MOHAWK
VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

LINGERING LIGHTER UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE…MOST VALLEY
AREAS WILL DRY OUT…WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES REACHING AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 20S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/…
AGAIN…EVEN AFTER THE SYNOPTIC SNOW SHUTS LATER THIS MORNING…THE
WIND WILL PICK UP AND WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW. WILL
MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SEE IF ANY ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WILL BE
HOISTED BUT AGAIN…THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOES UNTIL 10 AM.

ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM SNOW SHOWERS WILL RANGE FROM A HALF
AN INCH TO AN INCH. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SRN GREEN MTNS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON…AND H850 TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE NEAR
NORMAL IN THE -6C TO -8C RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW BREAKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE LOWER TO M30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION…POSSIBLY SOME
U30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY…AND MID AND UPPER 20S OVER THE MTNS.

TONIGHT…ANOTHER SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION…WITH A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO.

THE 00Z GFS NOW ATTEMPTS TO PHASE THESE PIECES OF ENERGY…BUT IT
WOULD NOT HAPPEN UNTIL THE STORM WAS WELL EAST OF OUR REGION.

THAT SAID…IT STILL APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE AT LEAST SOME
NUISANCE TYPE SNOWFALL ON SATURDAY…MAYBE A LITTLE MORE THAN IN OUR
EASTERN ZONES (1-4 INCHES). THE 00Z GEFFS PLUMES INDICATE A LIGHT
EVEN AT MOST WITH NO REAL OUTLYING MEMBERS INDICATING MORE THAN THAT
AT ALBANY.

STILL…WE WILL MENTION THIS STORM IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
SINCE THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO PHASE A LITTLE
EARLIER.

SATURDAY NIGHT…THE SUBSEQUENT LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL AT LEAST
INTRODUCE SOME MORE WIND LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY…ALONG
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AS MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. H850
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO ABOUT -15C. THEREFORE SUNDAY HIGHS
WILL BE COLDER…BACK DOWN IN THE 20S (TEENS NORTH). ONCE
AGAIN…THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS…MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/…
THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BE FAR ENOUGH
AWAY THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY…BUT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCT SNOW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY ON
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE…HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH FAIR AND DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S TO MID 30S. LOWS AROUND ZERO TO AROUND 12 BELOW ZERO SUNDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS MAY CONTINUE STRONG ENOUGH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR WIND CHILL READINGS TO REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS IN SOME AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.

A FAST MOVING BUT RELATIVELY MOIST CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
NY STATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF IT…MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PCPN TYPE.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 20. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES OUT
TUESDAY MORNING…BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND IT MAY KEEP SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S AS THE AIR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.

THE RELATIVELY MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
20S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
…MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS…

AS OF 12Z…THE SECOND PHASE OF THE NOR`EASTER…IE HEAVY SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE DEFORMATION CAUSED THE UPPER LOW "CAPTURING"
THE SURFACE STORM OFF CAPE COD…WAS WINDING DOWN. THE SNOW WILL
DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
TRANSITION TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER…AS THE
WIND INCREASES OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS…GUSTING TO
25-30KTS…THERE WILL BLOWING SNOW TO DEAL WITH AT ALL THE TAFS. THE
OBSERVATIONS WILL NOT ALWAYS REFLECT THIS BLOWING SNOW…AND MOST OF
THE TIME IT WILL NOT LIMIT VISIBILITY…SO WE DID NOT INCLUDE BLSN
IN THE TAFS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EVENING PEAK TONIGHT.

HOWEVER…WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER STORM THAT MIGHT BRUSH
THE AREA WITH SNOW LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY…ESPECIALLY AT
KPOU AND KPSF…POSSIBLY TAKING CONDITIONS OT IFR.

OUTLOOK…

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY LIKELY SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA…SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA INTO
THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL ARE HEAVY TO EPIC ACROSS THE REGION.

TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT FROM THE STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO RANGE FROM A
WIDESPREAD INCH TO INCH AND AN HALF OVER THE HSA…EXCEPT HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH OVER THE WRN DACKS AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE INITIALLY A SNOW…POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX EVENT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
013.
NY…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…HWJIV
NEAR TERM…HWJIV
SHORT TERM…HWJIV
LONG TERM…GJM
AVIATION…HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY…HWJIV/WASULA

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