000
FXUS61 KALY 150244
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
944 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS…
CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE
STORM WILL BRING A LIGHT SNOWFALL ON SATURDAY…MAINLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE STORM WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT
REACHES CAPE COD AND ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE REGION ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY AND WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH DRY BUT COLD WEATHER. ANOTHER LIGHT
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING
STORM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/…
AS OF 944 PM EST…REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR FINALLY SHOWS THAT ALMOST
ALL OF THE UPSLOPE SNOWFALL HAS ENDED OVER THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION
IS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS…WHERE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE STILL ONGOING LATE THIS EVENING. THIS
SHOULD END SHORTLY…AND NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THIS AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE OVERNIGHT. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL RESULT IN A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA…AND MOST AREAS LOOK
TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL PREVENT
TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH…SO HAVE BROUGHT MIN TEMPS UP…WITH
MAINLY 20S EXPECTED OVER THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT…SOME LIGHT SNOW
MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS TOWARDS DAYBREAK…ALTHOUGH ANY ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE REST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO STAY DRY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/…
WE ARE LOOKING AT MORE SNOW ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AS STORM
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND PASSES TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT HEADS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY BE RATHER LIMITED IN MOISTURE…HOWEVER AS
IT STRENGTHENS IT WILL TAP ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THE STORM WILL BE TO OUR EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WE ARE LOOKING
AT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IF THE STORM WERE TO TRACK
CLOSER TO THE COAST AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT COULD SEE A MODERATE SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IS OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
AS THE STORM DEEPENS/BOMBS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHT ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY
WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM.
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. HOWEVER THE
COMBINATION OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND SHOULD RESULT IN
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL
ALSO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/…
AFTER A RATHER COLD START MONDAY MORNING…TEMPS WILL WARM UP…BUT
IT WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
REACH THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR VALLEY AREAS…WITH TEENS ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND BEGIN WITH A LOT OF
SUNSHINE…CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY…AS A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.
THIS CLIPPER WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE MODELS AREN/T IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING AND QPF…AS THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS A
LITTLE SLOWER…STRONGER WITH THE STORM…AND MORE ROBUST WITH THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP AS COMPARED TO THE 12Z GFS. THE 12Z GEFS PLUMES ARE
SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN REGARDING QPF/TIMING. FOR NOW…WE
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS. EVEN IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT…PRECIP WON/T BE HEAVY…BUT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF
SNOWFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM…IT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE…WITH A FEW MORE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PASSING COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK…ESP FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THE OVERALL FLOW WILL BE MORE
ZONAL…WITH BROAD W-SW FLOW BRINGING MILDER PACIFIC AIR TOWARDS THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE…WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS FOR WED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE MAY EVEN BE A NIGHT OR TWO WHEN OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING.
THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT…AS A
LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS
POINT…PRECIP AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. W-NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL
DECREASE TO 8 KTS OR LESS BY ABOUT 02Z-03Z…AND LESS THAN 5 KTS
BY ABOUT 04Z-05Z.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SCT-BKN STRATOCU THIS EVENING…THIS SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE…LEAVING JUST SOME SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT…WITH A MID LEVEL
DECK ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT AS WELL.
AS A STORM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND OFF THE NJ COAST…SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR KPOU AFTER SUNRISE…AND KALB/KPSF
BY THE LATE MORNING AS WELL. INITIALLY…LIGHT SNOW WILL ONLY
ALLOW FOR MVFR CONDITIONS…BUT AFTER AN HOUR OR TWO OF STEADY
SNOW…IT WILL LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS…MAINLY FOR THE AFTN
HOURS. THE SNOW MAY START TO LET UP TOWARDS EVENING…ESP AT
KPOU. MEANWHILE…THE STEADIEST SNOW SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KGFL
TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR THERE. FOR NOW…HAVE GONE WITH JUST A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS…BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SHORT
PERIOD OF IFR SNOW THERE AS WELL DURING THE AFTN. WINDS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY…BECOME N-NW BY
LATE IN THE DAY AND INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK…
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA…SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FEW DAYS.
SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND ARE GENERALLY FROM A FOOT TO THREE FEET.
A LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS STORM STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF CAPE COD SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A CHANGE IN OUR PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MID AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL RIPEN THE SNOWPACK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE…
THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL REPORTED A STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 14.4
INCHES. THIS FALLS SHORT OF MAKING THE TOP 10 GREATEST STORMS FOR
ALBANY BY 0.2 INCHES. THE NUMBER ONE STORM FOR FEBRUARY IS 23.5
INCHES FEBRUARY 14TH, 1914. FOR THE FULL LIST CHECK US OUT FACEBOOK
PAGE AND TWITTER.
ALSO WE HAVE TWEETED AND POSTED TO FACEBOOK A STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
MAP FOR THE FEBRUARY 13-14, 2014 NOR`EASTER.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS…IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM…IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM…IAA
LONG TERM…FRUGIS
AVIATION…FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY…IAA
CLIMATE…IAA
