February 13, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 140240
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
940 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
A POWERFUL COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE FROM THE JERSEY SHORE
TOWARDS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS POWERFUL STORM
WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES BY LATE MORNING…BUT BRISK CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TO OPEN THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/…
WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALL OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND

AS OF 940 PM EST…STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE /984 HPA/ IS
SITUATED OFF THE COAST OF MONMOUTH COUNTY NEW JERSEY AND IS MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE…STRONG FRONTOGENESIS…COMBINED WITH A DEEP NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALLOWING FOR A BATCH OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN NJ AND NE PA. THIS PRECIP IS HEADED
TOWARDS OUR REGION…AND LOOKS TO MOVE IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE…A BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DEFORMATION CONTINUES ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SRN ADIRONDACKS.

BASED ON THE LATEST 3KM HRRR…THE STEADY PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS…MID HUDSON VALLEY…AND
EVENTUALLY THE CAPITAL REGION…TACONICS…AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND…THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP LOOKS
TO REACH THE CAPITAL REGION BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. WITHIN THIS SHIELD
OF STEADY PRECIP WILL BE SOME BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW…WITH RATES OF
1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

BASED ON CSTAR RESEARCH WITH SUNYA THESE MESOSCALE SNOWBANDS ARE
VERY LIKELY WITH THE H700 CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVING FROM ERN
PA/NJ/DELMARVA REGION AT 00Z TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
06Z/FRI. ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CLOSED LOW IS WHERE A SIGNIFICANT
PIVOTING MESOSCALE SNOWBAND IS LIKELY TO SET UP. ALSO…THE LEFT
FRONT QUAD OR LEFT EXIT REGION REGION OF 130-140+ KT JET STREAK
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH STRONG OMEGA/UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.

LTG DETECTION HAS SHOWN CLOUD TO GROUND LTG ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN
NJ AND THE NYC METRO AREA…INCLUDING MULTIPLE POSITIVE STRIKES.
WHILE IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOMEWHERE IN OUR CWA WILL SEE LTG…IT
WILL STILL BE RATHER ISOLD…AND WE WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE
GRIDS FOR NOW DUE TO ITS LOCALIZED NATURE. IT/S LIKELY THAT AREAS
THAT SEE CLOUD TO GROUND LTG HAVE THE BEST POSSIBILITY OF ALSO
SEEING THOSE HIGH END SNOW RATES.

THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOWS A LARGE AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING
UTILIZED FOR THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. PWAT ANOMALIES ARE 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT…ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
/PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OVER THE ERN CATSKILL/BERKSHIRES/SRN
GREENS/…ON TOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN.

OVERALL…THE TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE 14 TO 18 INCHES
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION…SOUTHERN VERMONT…AND THE NRN CATSKILLS
SOUTH AND EAST EXCEPT FOR SRN LITCHFIELD…WHERE 10-14 INCHES IS
LIKELY. THE MIXED PCPN MAY KEEP THE SNOW AMOUNTS LOWER IN PARTS OF
NW CT TO 14-18 INCHES. SNOW TOTALS OF 18-24" FOR THE SRN
GREENS…PART OF THE BERKSHIRES…AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.

THE WRN-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY…LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION…AND
THE SRN DACKS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE 8 TO 14 INCHES.

BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES TO AROUND 975 HPA IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY
DAY BREAK. N TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 TO 35
MPH WILL BE COMMON. SOME OF THE GUSTS MAY NOT MIX TO THE SFC
TONIGHT DUE TO A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION…AND THE HEAVY PCPN.

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 10-13:1 HAVE BEEN USED FOR THE ENTIRE
EVENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE WETTER SNOW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THE PCPN WILL MIX FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 6-8:1 WERE USED EARLY
TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
ANY ICE ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SRN BERKS/SRN TACONICS/NW CT WITH A COATING TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/…
TOMORROW…THE NOR`EASTER MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA BY THE EARLY PM WITH DEFORMATION SNOW AND SNOW
SHOWERS DIMINISHING BY NOONTIME. THE WARNING GOES FOR HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES…AS MOISTURE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY BE
UTILIZED. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SRN GREEN MTNS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON…AND H850 TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE NEAR
NORMAL IN THE -6C TO -8C RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW BREAKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M30S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION…POSSIBLY SOME U30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY…AND MID AND
UPPER 20S OVER THE MTNS.

FRIDAY NIGHT…ANOTHER SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION…WITH A NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. IT APPEARS THESE
SHORT-WAVES WILL NOT PHASE TOGETHER UNTIL NEAR THE DELMARVA
REGION…AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TURNS NEGATIVE. SOME LIGHT SNOW
MAY SPREAD INTO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK. SOME CHC POPS HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO FORECAST. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS AND L20S.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT…THE SUBSEQUENT COASTAL WAVE BASED ON THE
GFS/ECMWF/NAM APPEARS IT WILL DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT IT
WILL HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT…AND HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE ADDED TO THE FCST
AREA FOR SATURDAY. SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE.
THE COASTAL WAVE PASSES WELL EAST OF CAPE COD SATURDAY NIGHT AND
TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. SOME LAKE EFFECT AND WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER AGAIN. AFTER MAX TEMPS IN THE M20S TO L30S…LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS /EXCEPT SOME BELOW
ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS/…AS A STRONGER SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/…
THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BE FAR ENOUGH
AWAY THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY…BUT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCT SNOW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY ON
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE…HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH FAIR AND DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S TO MID 30S. LOWS AROUND ZERO TO AROUND 12 BELOW ZERO SUNDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS MAY CONTINUE STRONG ENOUGH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR WIND CHILL READINGS TO REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS IN SOME AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.

A FAST MOVING BUT RELATIVELY MOIST CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
NY STATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF IT…MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PCPN TYPE.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 20. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES OUT
TUESDAY MORNING…BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND IT MAY KEEP SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S AS THE AIR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.

THE RELATIVELY MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
20S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
AS OF 00Z…THERE WAS A BREAK IN THE SNOW ACROSS THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES AS THE HEAVY SNOW BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION PART OF THE STORM HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES AND WEAKENED. HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AROUND THE UPPER LOW WAS MOVE MOVING
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT 00Z AND IS FORECAST TO
REACH KPOU AROUND 02Z…KPSF AROUND 03Z…AND KALB/KGFL AROUND
04Z-05Z. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO START WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD IFR TO
VLIFR CONDITIONS AS THE HEAVY SNOW MOVES IN. EXPECT ABOUT A 4 TO 6
HOUR PERIOD OF OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW AT EACH TAF SITE. BETWEEN 08Z
AND 11Z THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AND CIGS/VSBY CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE. BY 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE TAF
SITES…EXCEPT AT KPSF WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND
17Z.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY…WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT AT KALB/KPSF FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK…

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY LIKELY SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA…SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY
ACROSS THE REGION…WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT…SRN VT…AND NRN CATSKILLS SOUTH AND EAST.

TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT FROM THE STORM SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM A
WIDESPREAD INCH TO INCH AND AN HALF OVER THE HSA…EXCEPT HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH OVER THE WRN DACKS AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE INITIALLY A SNOW…POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX EVENT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ039>043-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM…FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM…WASULA
LONG TERM…GJM
AVIATION…JPV
HYDROLOGY…HWJIV/WASULA

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