Fenruary 9, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 100243
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
943 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA MAINLY THIS EVENING. HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY WITH THE HIGH EXPECTED
TO CREST OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/…
AS OF 943 PM EST…AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DIRECTLY OVER THE
CWA AT THIS TIME AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WEAK STORM SYSTEM IS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW…WITH THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY OCCURRING OVER THE TACONICS…NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES…AND SOUTHERN VT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND
RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN LIGHT…SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE AREA.

SNOW WILL START TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS…AND TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY AROUND MIDNIGHT…AS THE STORM MOVES
EASTWARD. TOTAL ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY BE UP TO AN INCH FOR
VALLEY AREAS…AND 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR LATE TONIGHT
AS THE CLIPPER MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND /MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS/…AND SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR OUT TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

FOLLOWING THE PERSISTENT TREND FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS…WENT ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. MINS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS…CATSKILLS…BERKSHIRES
AND SRN VT…TO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE ELSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/…
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE FROM THE WEST MONDAY.
HOWEVER WILL HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ALOFT…THE REGION WILL REMAIN
UNDER A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. THIS WILL
KEEP THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AND THERE WILL BE
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY…SCHOHARIE VALLEY
AND HELDERBERGS INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO
CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE ALOFT HEIGHT SHOULD
START TO RISE TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CRESTING OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COUPLE OF VERY
COLD NIGHTS ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. NOT
LOOKING AT ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT
NIGHT ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/…
THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL STORM AFFECTING THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT…BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS SHOW
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. WHILE THE ECMWF ALLOWS FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA /EXCEPT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH STAY
DRY/…THE GFS KEEPS THIS STORM FURTHER OFFSHORE AND ONLY BRUSHES
OUR EASTERN AREAS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS…SO IT/S DIFFICULT TO TRUST ANY SPECIFIC
DETERMINISTIC RUN AT THIS POINT. MEANWHILE…THE 12Z GEFS SHOWS A
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT…WITH QPF VARYING FROM NOTHING
TO OVER AN INCH FOR KALB. THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW A VARIETY OF
PTYPE POSSIBILITIES AS WELL…ALTHOUGH MOST ARE SNOW FOR AT LEAST
A PORTION OF IT. AS A RESULT…WE HAVE A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST…AND WILL JUST GO WITH A CHC OF SNOW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY…WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS. THIS FORECAST WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE REFINED FURTHER IN
COMING DAYS ONCE THE MODELS START TO COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE EXPECTED SOLUTION.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM…THE MODELS HINT AT A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM
WOULD BE MORE MOISTURE STARVED…BUT WILL STILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHC
TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY EVENING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS BASED OFF A COMBINATION OF FORECAST TEMPS FROM WPC
AND THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE.

BEHIND THIS CLIPPER…TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN SOMEWHAT FOR SAT INTO SAT
NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO…BUT WITH THE EXPECTED FLOW IN
PLACE…THIS WILL PROBABLY AFFECT JUST CENTRAL NY AND LIMIT THE
IMPACT IN OUR AREA. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S…WITH MINS SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

THE GFS SUGGESTS ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER STORM WILL MOVE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY…WHILE THE ECMWF DELAYS THIS SYSTEM
TO MONDAY. FOR NOW…WILL ONLY GO WITH A SLIGHT CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS…WITH TEMPS
CONTINUED SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/…
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE DROPPED TO IFR DUE TO LOW VSBYS FROM LIGHT
SNOW AT ALL TAF SITES AND THESE CONDITIONS LOOK TO GENERALLY
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 04Z-05Z AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. AFTERWARD…FLYING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AS
THE SNOW ENDS…ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BKN AT ABOUT 4-5
KFT. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY…BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE
CLIPPER AT ABOUT 5-10 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK…
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUE-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
THU-THU NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED INTO MID WEEK. ONLY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. MODEL GUIDANCE ARE STILL NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL STORM AFFECTING THE REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

OUR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE…SO ICE WILL THICKEN ON
BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…IAA
NEAR TERM…IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM…IAA
LONG TERM…IAA
AVIATION…FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY…IAA

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