February 5, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 060233
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
933 PM EST WED FEB 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES…ALLOWING FOR SNOW TO END ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED…EXCEPT
FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/…
AS OF 915 PM EST…ALL HEADLINES HAVE EXPIRED ACROSS THE CWA.

PLEASE REFER TO YOUR PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR THE LATEST
SNOWFALL TOTALS. ALBANY HAS BROKEN THE SNOWFALL RECORD FOR THIS
DATE WITH 8.5 INCHES AS OF 4 PM AT ALBANY INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT…WHICH BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 8.1 SET BACK IN 2001.

PV ANOMALY WAS TRACKING JUST EAST OF THE REGION WITH SNOW QUICKLY
DIMINISHING FROM WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST. WE WILL HOLD
ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN A FAST DROP ON
OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SKY FORECAST WILL BE A CHALLENGE
OVERNIGHT AS AMPLE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE PER 00Z
RAOBS FROM HERE AND KBUF. IR IMAGERY REVEALS A FEW BREAKS OVER
LAKE ONTARIO…HOWEVER…HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ALREADY
ADVECTING INTO THE GREAT LAKE STATE AND LOWER ONTARIO PROVENCE.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK
TOWARD FORECAST LOWS…HOWEVER…IT MAKE TAKE RIGHT TIL SUNRISE
FOR THAT TOO OCCUR.

OVERNIGHT…WITH A COLD ADVECTION REGIME RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10…WITH
AT OR BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/…
IN WAKE OF THE STORM…WE WILL LEFT WITH A WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER…WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW AND SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR
AT 850MB ALONG WITH LAKE ONTARIO WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S…SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXTEND INTO
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ONCE THE WINDS ALIGN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A MITIGATING FACTOR TO THE STRENGTH OF LAKE
EFFECT BANDS ARE LOW CAPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS OF ONLY 1 TO 1.5 KM
DURING THIS TIME…WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO MINOR AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY…WITH SIMILAR READINGS OF LOWER TO MID 20S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND TEENS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NIGHT-TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY…WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD…HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
FORECAST AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT…USHERING IN A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO END THE WEEKEND
AND BEGIN NEXT WEEK. WITH FRESH SETS OF UPPER AIR DATA BEING
INGESTED INTO THE MODELS…LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF PACIFIC ENERGY
MOVING ONSHORE THE WESTERN CONUS AND LATER EJECTING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING A SOUTHERN STREAM DOMINATED
SYSTEM…THAT WILL ALLOW FOR COASTAL DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS…BUT A TRACK THAT WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OUT TO SEA.

HOWEVER…A PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SUPPORTED BY A 120+ KT
JET STREAK AND PV ANOMALY WILL HELP CARVE OUT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY…AND
ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNLIKE PRIOR
RUNS…THERE IS A GROWING CONSENSUS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY
COASTAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH…RESULTING IN
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW DRIVEN LARGELY BY UPPER-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
AND DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AS NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES
DOMINATE. ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE PUMPED NORTHWARD IN THE
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A COUPLE OF INCHES TO FALL ACROSS THE REGION. WILL NOT MENTION THIS
SYSTEM IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME AS THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
WHETHER ANY WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COAST ACCOMPANIES
IT…WHICH COULD BUMP SNOWFALL TOTALS A LITTLE HIGHER.

THIS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY EXIT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT…BEING REPLACED BY A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT ANOTHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
MID-TENNESSEE VALLEY…BUT TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO KNOW EXACTLY WHAT
WILL HAPPEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOW TEENS ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY WITH SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…
THE COASTAL LOW IS NOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE…HOWEVER…THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE HAS YET TO PASS THROUGH. IT WILL DO SO THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS WE WILL PLACE TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW. OTHERWISE…MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME VFR OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE THIS WINTER STORM. FAVORABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THURSDAY.

NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WEST AS THE
COASTAL LOW MOVES OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK…
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS. THE CURRENT SNOWSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING…WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK EXCEPT FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW THIS WEEKEND…WITH CURRENT INDICATIONS
THAT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS…ICE WILL THICKEN ON BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…BGM/JPV
NEAR TERM…BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM…JPV
LONG TERM…IRL
AVIATION…BGM
HYDROLOGY…JPV

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES…PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

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