February 2, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 030257
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
957 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING WELL OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY COULD
BRING A LIGHT SNOW TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT. ANOTHER STORM TRACKING JUST TO OUR SOUTH LOOKS TO
BRING SNOW TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/…
AS OF 945 PM EST…MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE AROUND THE
REGION…ALONG WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION…AS TEMPS GRADUALLY FALL
INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS…AND MID 20S TO
LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. REGIONAL RADARS DEPICT
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP…BUT CAN NOT STILL RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.

BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS…ONCE THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH ALONG WITH
ANY PRECIPITATION…QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION. HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT MINS JUST A BIT AS CLOUDS
SHOULD THICKEN ONCE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT…AND SOME WIND PERSISTS.
STILL EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS…WITH
SOME TEENS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN LITCHFIELD CO…TEMPS
MAY NOT FALL MUCH BELOW 30 UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE…ONCE SNOW
BEGINS AND WET BULB COOLING COMMENCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
AS OF 945 PM EST…THE LATEST RAP13 AND 00Z/03 NAM12 CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A NORTHWARD TREND IN THE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH TOMORROW/S FAST
MOVING IMPULSE. HAVE THEREFORE RAISED FORECAST SNOWFALL AMTS…TO
1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHERN LITCHFIELD
CO…AND 2-4 INCHES FOR SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS OVERNIGHT IN CASE THESE AMTS NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AND/OR NORTHWARD. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN BERKSHIRE CO…AND PERHAPS EVEN SOUTHERN
VT…WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLY REACHING INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

OTHERWISE…THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION…BUT THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT TOWARD DAYBREAK…AND CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S MOST AREAS WITH MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS…AROUND ZERO NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM…WHICH IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 30S WITH 20S IN NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS
STILL SOME SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS TO WHERE THE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITION ZONE SETS UP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY…BUT THERE IS
AN INCREASING CONSENSUS THAT ANY POTENTIAL MIXED PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO NW CT…MEANING
MOSTLY SNOW EVERYWHERE ELSE.

THERE SEEMS TO BE IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT…BOUNDARY LAYER JET
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS FOR DECENT AMOUNTS OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION. WE COULD VERY WELL NEED HEADLINES IN
MOST AREAS ONCE MORE DETAILS ARE DETERMINED IN THE COMING DAY OR
TWO. REGARDLESS OF WHAT AREAS SEE THE MOST OR LEAST SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION…ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE TRAVEL AND OTHER USUAL
IMPACTS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THAT OCCUR WITH MODERATE TO
SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/…
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. INITIALLY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY…OUTSIDE OF
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAY/S STORM SYSTEM FOR
EARLY WED NT…AND POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATER WED
NT INTO THU NT. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY
LATER THU INTO FRI.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM SYSTEM FOR NEXT
SAT-SUN. HOWEVER…TAKING A LOOK AT PV ANOMALY TRACES…IT APPEARS
THAT THE MAIN FOCUS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INVOLVED IN THIS POTENTIAL
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ROUNDING THE TOP OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
ALASKA…AND THEN PROTRUDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN CANADA LATER
IN THE WEEK…UNLIKE ITS PREDECESSORS WHICH ORIGINATED A LITTLE
FARTHER WEST…ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SO…CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM…ESP AT THIS TIME RANGE…IS VERY LOW.
THE 12Z/02 GFS AND GEFS INDICATE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINATING OVER THE GULF COAST SAT…AND THEN
POSSIBLY TRACKING NORTHEAST/NORTH…TOWARD OR OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTLINE BY LATE SUN-MON…IN A MILLER A TYPE FASHION. THE 12Z/02
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF INDICATES AN INITIAL BURST OF WARM ADVECTION
PRECIP AND A WEAKER LOW FOR SAT WELL AHEAD OF THE INCOMING UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY…WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SFC REFLECTION FOLLOWING THIS
FOR SUN-MON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH RATHER
PROGRESSIVELY. HOWEVER…THE 12Z/02 EC DETERMINISTIC RUN APPEARS
FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER THAN THE 12Z/02 EC ENSEMBLE
MEAN…SUGGESTING THAT THE DETERMINISTIC EC MAY BE MORE OF AN
OUTLIER…AND THAT THE MAJORITY OF EC MEMBERS MAY BE FAVORING A
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE COAST. SO…AT THIS TIME…WILL
KEEP CHC POPS FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT-SUN…GIVEN OVERALL
UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW THIS POSSIBLE STORM SYSTEM EVOLVES AND
TRACKS.

FOR TEMPS…EXPECT MOST DAYTIME MAXES TO BE TEENS AND 20S FOR
THU/FRI…AND MAINLY 20S FOR SAT AND SUN…ALTHOUGH THESE COULD BE
COLDER SHOULD SNOWFALL OCCUR. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE IN VALLEYS FOR WED NT/THU AM…AND AGAIN
THU NT/FRI AM…WITH ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS…WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR MINS SAT
AND SUN AM. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT COLDER MIN TEMPS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI AM GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP SNOWCOVER FROM
THE TUE NT-WED STORM SYSTEM…SHOULD PERIODS OF CLEAR SKIES
OCCUR…ALONG WITH ANY LOCAL DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS…WHICH COULD
SEND MIN TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/…
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY…PRODUCING A PERIOD OF SNOW AT
KPOU…AND POSSIBLY KPSF…DEVELOPING BETWEEN 10Z-12Z AT
KPOU…AND POSSIBLY BETWEEN 13Z-15Z AT KPSF. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW AT KPOU…AND POSSIBLY AT KPSF. THE SNOW
AND ASSOCIATED IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD END/LIFT BETWEEN 18Z-20Z.

OTHERWISE…FOR KGFL/KALB…VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED…ALTHOUGH
A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 02Z/MON AS
SOME LOWER CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS BEHIND THE PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
A FEW FLURRIES COULD ALSO OCCUR AT KALB AND KPSF THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5-10 KT TONIGHT…BECOMING
NORTHERLY ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK…
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEF SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN…IT LOOKS AS IF OUR
REGION WILL HAVE A SNOWSTORM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY…WITH PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. INITIALLY THIS SNOWSTORM WILL HAVE NO REAL
IMPACT ON THE WATER SHEDS.

DRY AND COLD WEATHER RETURNS BY THURSDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…NAS
NEAR TERM…KL/NAS
SHORT TERM…NAS
LONG TERM…KL
AVIATION…KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY…HWJIV/NAS

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