000
FXUS61 KALY 022116
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS…
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING WELL OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY COULD
BRING A LIGHT SNOW TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT. ANOTHER STORM TRACKING JUST TO OUR SOUTH LOOKS TO
BRING SNOW TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/…
COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO SINK EAST AND SOUTH…AND ONE MORE NARROW
BAND OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ON RADAR FROM THE SCHOHARIE
VALLEY THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY…TRACKING EAST.
ACKNOWLEDGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL…SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. A LITTLE UNSURE ABOUT HOW WELL THE BAND HOLDS
TOGETHER AS IT TRACKS THROUGH DIVERSE TERRAIN OF ASSORTED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND VALLEYS.
BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS…ONCE THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH ALONG WITH
ANY PRECIPITATION…QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION. STILL…BASED ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM…
PURE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
20S IN MANY AREAS…BUT LOWER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
WHERE SOME NOTICEABLE THINNING OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION…BUT THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD SCRAPE THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. MOST AREAS
NORTH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO NW CT…BUT THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SHARP. HIGHS IN THE
30S MOST AREAS WITH MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS…AROUND ZERO NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM…WHICH IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 30S WITH 20S IN NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS
STILL SOME SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS TO WHERE THE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITION ZONE SETS UP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY…BUT THERE IS
AN INCREASING CONSENSUS THAT ANY POTENTIAL MIXED PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO NW CT…MEANING
MOSTLY SNOW EVERYWHERE ELSE.
THERE SEEMS TO BE IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT…BOUNDARY LAYER JET
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS FOR DECENT AMOUNTS OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION. WE COULD VERY WELL NEED HEADLINES IN
MOST AREAS ONCE MORE DETAILS ARE DETERMINED IN THE COMING DAY OR
TWO. REGARDLESS OF WHAT AREAS SEE THE MOST OR LEAST SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION…ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE TRAVEL AND OTHER USUAL
IMPACTS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THAT OCCUR WITH MODERATE TO
SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/…
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. INITIALLY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY…OUTSIDE OF
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAY/S STORM SYSTEM FOR
EARLY WED NT…AND POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATER WED
NT INTO THU NT. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY
LATER THU INTO FRI.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM SYSTEM FOR NEXT
SAT-SUN. HOWEVER…TAKING A LOOK AT PV ANOMALY TRACES…IT APPEARS
THAT THE MAIN FOCUS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INVOLVED IN THIS POTENTIAL
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ROUNDING THE TOP OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
ALASKA…AND THEN PROTRUDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN CANADA LATER
IN THE WEEK…UNLIKE ITS PREDECESSORS WHICH ORIGINATED A LITTLE
FARTHER WEST…ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SO…CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM…ESP AT THIS TIME RANGE…IS VERY LOW.
THE 12Z/02 GFS AND GEFS INDICATE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINATING OVER THE GULF COAST SAT…AND THEN
POSSIBLY TRACKING NORTHEAST/NORTH…TOWARD OR OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTLINE BY LATE SUN-MON…IN A MILLER A TYPE FASHION. THE 12Z/02
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF INDICATES AN INITIAL BURST OF WARM ADVECTION
PRECIP AND A WEAKER LOW FOR SAT WELL AHEAD OF THE INCOMING UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY…WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SFC REFLECTION FOLLOWING THIS
FOR SUN-MON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH RATHER
PROGRESSIVELY. HOWEVER…THE 12Z/02 EC DETERMINISTIC RUN APPEARS
FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER THAN THE 12Z/02 EC ENSEMBLE
MEAN…SUGGESTING THAT THE DETERMINISTIC EC MAY BE MORE OF AN
OUTLIER…AND THAT THE MAJORITY OF EC MEMBERS MAY BE FAVORING A
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE COAST. SO…AT THIS TIME…WILL
KEEP CHC POPS FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT-SUN…GIVEN OVERALL
UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW THIS POSSIBLE STORM SYSTEM EVOLVES AND
TRACKS.
FOR TEMPS…EXPECT MOST DAYTIME MAXES TO BE TEENS AND 20S FOR
THU/FRI…AND MAINLY 20S FOR SAT AND SUN…ALTHOUGH THESE COULD BE
COLDER SHOULD SNOWFALL OCCUR. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE IN VALLEYS FOR WED NT/THU AM…AND AGAIN
THU NT/FRI AM…WITH ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS…WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR MINS SAT
AND SUN AM. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT COLDER MIN TEMPS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI AM GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP SNOWCOVER FROM
THE TUE NT-WED STORM SYSTEM…SHOULD PERIODS OF CLEAR SKIES
OCCUR…ALONG WITH ANY LOCAL DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS…WHICH COULD
SEND MIN TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/…
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A BAND OF PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT FROM
JUST SOUTH OF KALB TO KPSF/KPOU. TEMPS HAVE JUST STARTED DROPPING
AT KPSF…SO INITIALLY RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS FROM AROUND 18Z-21Z. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF A TWO-
HOUR TEMPO FOR IFR AT KPSF DUE TO EXPECTED RAIN/SNOW…AS WELL AS
LOWERING CIGS. STILL MUCH TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP AT KPOU
THIS AFTERNOON…SO WILL JUST MENTION RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS. SOME LOWER CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AT KALB/KGFL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
MVFR RANGE.
PRECIP WILL END BY THIS EVENING…WITH JUST OVC SKIES REMAINING.
CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL
LINGER A BIT LONGER. THE LOWER CLOUD DECK SHOULD SCOUR LATER
TONIGHT…HOWEVER A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA
AREA AND EVENTUALLY OUT TO SEA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY…WHICH
LOOKS TO SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW NORTHWARD TO KPOU. WILL MENTION
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT KPOU STARTING JUST AFTER 12Z MONDAY.
SNOW SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF KPSF…SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A
VCSH. DRY CONDITIONS BUT WITH OVC SKIES IN VFR RANGE SHOULD
PERSIST AT KALB/KGFL.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT…BECOMING NORTHERLY ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK…
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY : HIGH OPERATION IMPACT. SNOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATION IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY…
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
DRY WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN…IT LOOKS AS IF OUR
REGION WILL HAVE A SNOWSTORM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY…WITH PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. INITIALLY THIS SNOWSTORM WILL HAVE NO REAL
IMPACT ON THE WATER SHEDS.
DRY AND COLD WEATHER RETURNS BY THURSDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS…NAS
NEAR TERM…NAS
SHORT TERM…NAS
LONG TERM…KL
AVIATION…JPV
HYDROLOGY…HWJIV/NAS
