February 2, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 021501
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A STORM
TRACKING JUST TO OUR SOUTH LOOKS TO BRING A SNOWSTORM TO THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
AS OF 1000 AM EST…COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING…AS SURFACE OBS
INDICATE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CAPITAL REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS…THEN AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SPIKE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT…THEN GRADUALLY START DROPPING POST-FROPA. WINDS ARE
NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE IN WAKE OF THE FRONT…NEITHER IS THE
THERMAL GRADIENT…SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP ABRUPTLY.

LOCAL HIRES WRF AND HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
BLOSSOM AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA…POSSIBLY A RESULT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE. STILL…ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS SO WILL CAP POPS AROUND 30-40 PERCENT. TEMP PROFILES
INDICATE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WITH ONLY A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME SPOTS. VALLEY
LOCATIONS WILL SEE PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S…ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GRADUALLY EASE BACK INTO THE 30S LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED FOR WESTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/…
TONIGHT…ANY LEFT OVER TERRAIN ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL END AS THE
FLOW BECOMES VERY ANTICYCLONIC. THE SKY IN MOST PLACES WILL AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEAR. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES…WHICH WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO CLOUDS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES…WHILE STILL ABOVE NORMAL BY FEBRUARY STANDARDS…WILL
BE NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN THOSE OF LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S…EXCEPT TEENS AND EVEN SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
OUR NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL ULTIMATELY SLIDE WELL SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA…BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF ITS PRECIPITATION COULD BRUSH OUR
EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS…MAINLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR ON
SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY. IT LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN THE
COLUMN…EVEN IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING.
OUR FORECAST IMPLIES A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AREAS. FURTHER NORTH…HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION…20S FURTHER NORTH. THESE VALUES ARE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS…SOME
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TO PROVIDE A
CONTINUATION OF SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER AND A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACK PARK TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA…10 TO 15 SOUTHERN VERMONT
AND MOHAWK VALLEY…MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/…
THE POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO
EXIST FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND…

EXCEPT FOR THE NAM WHICH HAS THE SURFACE LOW MOVING TO NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING (AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR NOW)…
THE OTHER MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW AND
EVENTUAL SECONDARY LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SOMEWHERE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE AIR OVER THE REGION
BEING COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW WITH THIS EVENT. OVER THE LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS…THE TREND OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAS BEEN TO GET
COLDER. EXPECTING SUBSTANTIAL AND WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING PCPN WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION. GENERAL
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT ABOUT 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS EVENT BASED ON QPF AMOUNTS THAT ARE GENERALLY UNDER AN
INCH…AND EXPECTED SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS THAT WILL BE RELATIVELY
WET COMPARED TO RECENT SNOWFALLS (TEN OR TWELVE TO ONE WAS USED TO
GET THE FORECAST SNOW TOTALS). HAVE FORECAST POPS RISING TO
CATEGORICAL AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT…AND REMAINING CATEGORICAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 20S TO LOWERS 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS IT HEADS OUT TO SEA. EXPECT COLDER BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN MOST PLACES TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE 20 TO 30.

DEPENDING ON THE MODEL…THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL EITHER AFFECT THE
REGION ON SATURDAY OR HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. TO FAR OUT TO MAKE ANY
DECISIONS AS TO WHICH MODEL IS RIGHT AT THIS TIME…SO WILL JUST
FORECAST A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SATURDAY FOR NOW. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/…
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST…SHOWERS ALONG IT HAVE
NEARLY DISSIPATED OR BECOME ISOLATED. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCSH AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH A PART OF TODAY.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z MONDAY. THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPSF FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AT THE TAF SITES AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH OR NORTHWEST AND DECREASE TO 8 KTS OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK…
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY : HIGH OPERATION IMPACT. SNOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATION IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE LIGHT AND INSIGNIFICANT TO THE WATER
SHEDS. DRY WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

THEN…IT LOOKS AS IF OUR REGION WILL HAVE A SNOWSTORM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY…WITH PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. INITIALLY THIS SNOWSTORM WILL HAVE NO REAL
IMPACT ON THE WATER SHEDS.

DRY AND COLD WEATHER RETURNS BY THURSDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM…HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM…HWJIV
LONG TERM…GJM
AVIATION…GJM
HYDROLOGY…HWJIV

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