January 31, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 311744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1243 PM EST FRI JAN 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS…MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THIS FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION…THEN RETREAT NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF NEW YORK.
THIS LOW WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON…BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY SHOULD LIMIT THE WARMING THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON…SO SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF SOME OF THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES. AGAIN…JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/…
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY…

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD
AND SETTLE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION…AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION…MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL
BREAKS MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY…ALLOWING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACTUALLY GET INTO
THE WARM SECTOR. DESPITE CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY…LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL HELP WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER ABOVE FREEZING FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY…WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 30S
AND EVEN APPROACHING 40 ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
HANDLING THIS SYSTEM…WITH A TRACK ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY…KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER…THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
AND GIVEN THE APPROACHING DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM…HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND CHANCE POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL BE
LIGHT…STARTING AS SNOW BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING LEADS TO A
RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION EXPERIENCING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW MAY FALL DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT…PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AS ISENTROPIC AND
FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140+
KT 300 HPA JET STREAK. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY TO DISCERN
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME…WITH THE ULTIMATE OUTCOME BEING DEPENDENT ON
THE BOUNDARY LAYER RATE OF COOLING. GIVEN THIS SYNOPTIC TRACK AND
THE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM…DO NOT EXPECT
ANY MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION AND INSTEAD A RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION.
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT…WITH A POSSIBLE COATING UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE WITH
GREATER AMOUNTS LOCATED NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT…WHERE 2-6 INCHES MAY FALL. AT THIS TIME…STORM TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPROACH 4-6 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR THESE LOCATIONS IN THE HWO. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING…WITH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF IT WARMING
WELL INTO THE 40S ALONG THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL INITIALLY START AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE BECOMING ALL RAIN…WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/…
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY…BIG DIFFERENCES EXIST BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF REGARDING THE SYSTEM FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF OUR FA WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS
THE SURFACE LOW ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THEN S OF CAPE COD.
WILL AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH AND EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TRANQUIL WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND CRESTS ACRS THE FA ON TUESDAY BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY…ECMWF AND GFS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A SIZABLE STORM COMPLEX LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL IMPACT THE REGION. THE
WESTERN SYSTEM WILL BE TRANSFERRING ITS ENERGY TO THE COASTAL LOW
WEDNESDAY. THE GEFS PLUME DIAGRAM FOR KALB SHOWS MAINLY SNOW WITH
QPF AMOUNTS ON SOME GEFS MEMBERS OVER AN INCH QPF. WHILE THIS IS
STILL A LONG WAYS OUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW WITH SOME MIXING POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FROM KALB SOUTH AND EAST. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE BULK OF THE STORM AT THIS TIME LOOKS
TO IMPACT THE FA FROM THE SECOND HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY…OTHER THAN WEAK LAKE RESPONSE WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF FA EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THURSDAY. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE IN
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING NEW YORK STATE FROM ONTARIO AND
WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING CLOUDS AT THE
AIRPORTS…BUT THESE WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD…WITH THE
OVC NOT REALLY APPEARING UNTIL ALTITUDES ABV 12000 FEET. LANDLOCKED
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRAW ON LITTLE MOISTURE…SO THERE WILL BE NO
PRECIP…EVEN THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN THE HIGH BEGINS TO DRAW ON OCEAN
MOISTURE AS THIS WILL BE MAINLY ABSORBED INTO A COASTAL LOW WELL OFF
CAPE HATTERAS.

VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD…AND THERE
APPEARS TO BE NO ISSUE WITH SFC WINDS OR VERTICAL SHEAR… WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SFC SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR UNDER DURING THE DAYTIME
PERIODS…CALM OR LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK…
SATURDAY: LITTLE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC RA…SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC RA…SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LITTLE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY: LITTLE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA…SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT…WITH JUST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
ACCOMPANYING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. ADDITIONAL MAINLY LIGHT SNOW
AND/OR RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS. THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT
AND WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE HIGHER
QPF WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS REGION…WHERE
TOTALS COULD REACH A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY…BEFORE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTS THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…IRL/NAS
NEAR TERM…SND/NAS
SHORT TERM…IRL
LONG TERM…11
AVIATION…ELH
HYDROLOGY…IRL

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