January 30, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 301428
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
928 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON…ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW…WHICH WILL RETURN
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY…MAINLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TO
OPEN THE WEEKEND WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/…
AS OF 927 AM EST…HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SFC HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPS
DESPITE ANOTHER VERY COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE MAX TEMPS WILL
STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS…BUT
THE TREND IS UPWARD FROM THE BITTER COLD OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
H925/H850 RISE TO -7C TO -9C RANGE WITH THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE IN
PLACE.

EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE MID AND U20S IN THE VALLEYS…AND
LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/…
TONIGHT…TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH…AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT. TEMPS
MAY DROP OFF EARLY…AND THEN STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISE OVERNIGHT
WITH THE S/SW BREEZE. THIS IS NOT A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH NOT
MUCH OF A PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION WITH IT. ACTUALLY THE MOISTURE
AND RH PROFILES BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF LOOK POOR FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PCPN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA. THE BEST LIFT
AND CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY…AND SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WERE USED
BTWN 09Z-12Z. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

FRIDAY…THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE POPS WERE LOWERED TO
SLIGHT CHC VALUES ALONG THE WRN SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS…AND
BERKSHIRES…AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO THE S/SW
UPSLOPE IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY/SRN DACKS. VERY WEAK COLD ADVECTION OCCURS
WITH THE FRONT/SFC TROUGH WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST. THE
BETTER MIXING…AND SOME SUNSHINE MIXING WITH CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO BE NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE. MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO NAM
MOS VALUES WERE ACCEPTED WITH MID AND U30S FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST…AND U20S TO L30S NORTH AND WEST.

FRIDAY NIGHT…A GRAY AREA IN THE SHORT TERM IN TERMS OF WHERE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES TOO…AND WHAT KIND OF SYNOPTIC FORCING
OCCURS WITH IT. RIGHT NOW…ANY KIND OF THERMAL ADVECTION OR
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE FRONT LOOKS WEAK…AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM SE QUEBEC BRIEFLY. THE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY…AS A WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE CNTRL MS
RIVER VALLEY. SLIGHT CHC AND CHC POPS ARE GRADUALLY BROUGHT NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION…WITH THE BEST CHC OF SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO THE SYSTEM SOUTH AND WEST OF ALY WITH
COATINGS TO MAYBE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY…AND GENERALLY LOWER TO M20S TO
THE SOUTH.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT…STILL SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. OUR FORECAST LEANS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF…AND THE
GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A TRACK OF THE SFC LOW THROUGH THE ERN
GREAT LAKES…ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY…AND OVER NRN
NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE QPF ON THE GFS LOOKS A BIT HIGH
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE NAM IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE GFS WITH
THE HEAVIEST QPF OF A HALF AN INCH OR GREATER OVER THE SRN
DACKS…AND MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF WOULD
GIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OVER OUR SE EXTREME WITH UP TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH OVER THE SRN DACKS. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD FOCUS A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING
TO RAIN IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCALES BASED ON THE CRITICAL
PARTIAL THICKNESSES…MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THERMAL PROFILES. MUCH
OF THE FCST AREA ACTUALLY BREAKS INTO A WARM SECTOR ! THE 21Z SREF
PLUME FOR ALY FAVORS A LIGHT SNOW/RAIN EVENT…THE 00Z GEFS SHOW
MAINLY RAIN/SNOW MEMBERS WITH A FEW WITH FREEZING RAIN. THE BEST
QG LIFT IS FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH.
EXPECT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY…SRN
DACKS…AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION BY 00Z/SUN. AN INCH OR LESS
FURTHER SOUTH. TEMPS WARM INTO THE U30S TO NEAR 40F FROM THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION PARTS OF SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST…WITH
U20S TO MID 30S TO THE NORTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE TIME FRAME WHICH IS TRICKY WITH THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE NORTH. COLD AIR SHOULD GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO
THE REGION CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD
OF PELLETS IN A FEW LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE LIKE THE GFS
IS SHOWING SOME FREEZING RAIN IN A FEW SPOTS /ELEVATED TERRAIN/ BASED
ON THE CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE TEMPS
COME CRASHING DOWN IN THE SFC LAYER OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
TRANSITION THE PCPN TO FREEZING RAIN. IT IS NOT A CLASSIC SET-UP
FOR FREEZING RAIN…AND MORE OF A RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION. IF A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN LOOKS MORE CERTAIN…THEN THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO…AND RIGHT NOW IT IS A TOUGH CALL IF
ANY LOCATION WILL GET ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IN A 12-HR PERIOD.
PORTIONS OF THE SRN DACKS COULD FLIRT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2-4" ON
TOP OF THE 1-2" PERIOD PRIOR TO 00Z/SUN. OVERALL…THE CONSENSUS
FROM THE NEIGHBORING SITES WAS FOR A SNOW/RAIN DOMINATE EVENT.
LOWS WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO WPC WITH U20S TO L30S ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
SUNDAY…SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF FA EARLY IN THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF FA. SOME LAKE RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE ACRS THE
WRN ADIRONDACKS AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON…OTHERWISE
REST OF FA SHOULD BE DRY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY…EXPECT TRANQUIL WEATHER AS A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AND CRESTS ACRS THE FA ON TUESDAY BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST
TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO MID 30S WITH TUESDAY BEING THE SLIGHTLY WARMER OF THE TWO
DAYS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY…ECMWF AND GFS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A SIZABLE STORM COMPLEX LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL IMPACT THE REGION. THE
GEFS PLUME DIAGRAM FOR KALB SHOWS MAINLY SNOW WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON
SOME GEFS MEMBERS OVER AN INCH QPF. WHILE THIS IS STILL A LONG WAYS OUT
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW
WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. THE BULK OF THE STORM AT
THIS TIME LOOKS TO IMPACT THE FA FROM THE SECOND HALF OF TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WL MENTION BRIEFLY IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z FRIDAY.

SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE SKC OR FEW-SCT250 THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AT 7-8 KTS OVERNIGHT AND THEN
S-SW AT 4 TO 8 KTS ON THURSDAY BCMG LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK…

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA…SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA…SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS ENDING MONDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT…WITH JUST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND WILL HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE
OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION WHERE TOTALS COULD REACH A QUARTER TO HALF
AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM…FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM…WASULA
LONG TERM…11
AVIATION…11
HYDROLOGY…JPV/WASULA

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